Team Entropy: Your weekend recipe for maximum AL wild-card chaos

[si_video id="video_46CB90EB-1C56-B955-E9D4-3C6D0A12651C" height="500"] If you've cast your worldly desires aside and boarded the Team Entropy bandwagon in

[si_video id="video_46CB90EB-1C56-B955-E9D4-3C6D0A12651C" height="500"]

If you've cast your worldly desires aside and boarded the Team Entropy bandwagon in hopes that we may experience maximum baseball chaos heading into the season's final week, here are a couple scenarios that would tighten the AL wild-card race even beyond the current situation, where six teams are separated by 3 1/2 games top to bottom.

SCENARIO 1: Sweepsville

• If the Orioles sweep three from the Rays in Tampa Bay, that would leave the two teams with records of 84-71 and 83-72, respectively.

• If the Royals sweep three from the Rangers in Kansas City, that would leave both teams with records of 83-72.

• If the Yankees sweep three from the Giants in the Bronx, that would leave New York with a record of 83-73.

• If the Indians are swept by the Astros, that would leave Cleveland with a record of 83-73.

That wildly improbable set of circumstances would leave the six teams clustered as follows, with three teams tied for the second wild-card spot and all five separated by a game and a half top to bottom:

Team

W

L

PCT

GB

Orioles

84

71

.542

+1

Rangers

83

72

.535

--

Rays

83

72

.535

--

Royals

83

72

.535

--

Indians

83

73

.532

.5

Yankees

83

73

.532

.5

SCENARIO 2: Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

• If the Orioles take two out of three from the Rays in Tampa Bay, that would leave the two teams with records of 83-72 and 84-71, respectively.

• If the Royals take two out of three from the Rangers in Kansas City, that would leave the two teams with records of 82-73 and 84-71, respectively.

• If the Yankees sweep the Giants in the Bronx, that would leave New York with a record of 83-73.

• If the Indians drop two out of three to the Astros, that would leave them with a record of 84-72.

That's a more realistic set of circumstances, requiring just one sweep. With it, the spread would be two games top to bottom:

Team

W

L

PCT

GB

Rangers

84

71

.542

 --

Rays

84

71

.542

 --

Indians

84

72

.538

.5

Orioles

83

72

.535

1

Yankees

83

73

.532

1.5

Royals

82

73

.529

2

There's some wiggle room within that while keeping the top-to-bottom spread at two. For example, it doesn't really matter what happens in the Indians series so long as they don't sweep. But if they did, and if the Royals did, the spread would still be two games, top to bottom.


Published
Jay Jaffe
JAY JAFFE

Jay Jaffe is a contributing baseball writer for SI.com and the author of the upcoming book The Cooperstown Casebook on the Baseball Hall of Fame.