Mike Mussina Won't Get Into the Hall of Fame in 2018, but he's Building Toward Election

Mike Mussina's case for Hall of Fame induction may appear unremarkable, but he has a compelling case for induction.

The following article is part of my ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2018 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2014 election, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research, and was expanded for inclusion in The Cooperstown Casebook. For a detailed introduction to this year's ballot, please see here. For an introduction to JAWS, see here.

Unlike 2014 Hall of Fame honorees Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine or 2015 honoree Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina didn't reach 300 wins in his career. Nor did he ever win a Cy Young award, in part because a teammate practically stole one out of his hands thanks to superior run support. For as well as he pitched in October, his teams never won a World Series, because even the best relievers sometimes falter, to say nothing of what happens to the rest of them.

Though lacking in those marquee accomplishments, Mussina nonetheless strung together an exceptional 18-year career spent entirely in the crucible of the American League East, with its high-offense ballparks and high-pressure atmosphere. A cerebral pitcher with an expansive arsenal that featured a 93-mph fastball and a signature knuckle-curve—and at times as many as five other pitches—he not only missed bats with regularity but also had pinpoint control.

In a prime that coincided with those of the aforementioned pitchers—as well as 2015 inductees Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz and ballotmates Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling—"Moose" never led the AL in either strikeouts or ERA, but he ranked in the league's top five six times in the former and seven times in the latter. He earned All-Star honors five times and received Cy Young votes in eight separate seasons across a 10-year span, at one point finishing in the top five four times in five years. Despite his lack of titles, he also put together a strong postseason résumé.

In fact, despite a late-career dip from which he recovered in memorable fashion, Mussina's résumé as a whole is strong enough for Cooperstown. He delivered tremendous value across his career and holds up well in comparison to his contemporaries and to those already enshrined. On a ballot overstuffed with flashier candidates, he initially struggled to get attention, receiving 20.3% of the voting 2014 and 24.6% the next year, but he was the ballot’s biggest gainer in 2016, and climbed to 51.8% in 2017, having more than doubled his support in a two-year span. With six years of eligibility remaining, he appears to be on track for an eventual berth in Cooperstown.

Before delving further into Mussina’s career, a disclaimer: Regular readers know that I generally avoid dwelling upon pitcher win totals, because in this increasingly specialized era, they owe as much to adequate offensive, defensive and bullpen support as they do to a pitcher's own performance. While one needn't know how many wins Mussina amassed in a season or a career to appreciate his true value, the 20- and 300-win marks are an inextricable part of his particular story.

Player	Career WAR	Peak WAR	JAWS	Wins	Losses	ERA	ERA+
Mike Mussina	83.0	44.5	63.8	270	153	3.68	123
Avg. HOF SP	73.9	50.3	62.1

Mussina was born in 1968 in Williamsport, Penn.—the birthplace of Little League Baseball—and grew up in nearby Montoursvile, a tiny town of less than 5,000. A three-sport letterman at Montoursville High School, he played guard on the basketball team and wide receiver and kicker on the football team in addition to pitching for the baseball team. As a senior, he won two games kicking last-second field goals, drawing the interest of Penn State University.

A strong student as well as an outstanding athlete, Mussina nearly earned valedictorian honors, but according to legend, he may have tanked a test in order to fall short and thus avoid speaking at graduation. Despite being considered one of the country's top prospects out of high school, he chose to attend Stanford on a baseball scholarship. He helped the Cardinal win the College World Series as a freshman in 1988 and earned his economics degree in 3 1/2 years, capped by a provocatively-titled senior thesis: “The Economics of Signing out of High School as Opposed to College.”

The Orioles chose Mussina with the 20th pick of the 1990 draft, signed him for a $225,000 bonus and sent him straight to Double A Hagerstown. After making just nine starts between there and Triple A Rochester, he was ranked 19th on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list the following spring, and after 19 more starts at Rochester, he debuted for the Orioles on Aug. 4, 1991. The 22-year-old righty threw 7 2/3 innings against the White Sox, allowing only a solo homer to Frank Thomas, but lost because ageless knuckleballer Charlie Hough spun a five-hit shutout. Though stuck on a club bound for 95 losses, he stood out in his 12-start trial; his 2.87 ERA was almost exactly half of the other Baltimore starters' collective ERA (5.55).

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That abysmal season marked the Orioles' fifth sub-.500 finish out of six, but Mussina helped put the franchise back on the road back to respectability. Already polished, he assumed the mantle of staff ace, a role that 1989 No. 1 pick Ben McDonald couldn't fulfill. The O's improved to 89 wins in 1992 as the 23-year-old Mussina tossed 241 innings of 2.54 ERA ball and went 18–5, earning All-Star honors and placing fourth in the Cy Young voting. His ERA ranked third in the league, and his walk rate (1.8 per nine) and WAR (8.2) were second, the latter trailing only Clemens's 8.8. Not surprisingly, his heavy workload carried a cost: Shoulder soreness limited him to 167 2/3 innings the following year, and he was roughed up for a 4.46 ERA.

Mussina restored his claim as one of the league's top starters in the strike-shortened seasons. In a 1994 Sports Illustrated profile, Tom Verducci described him inventing a cut fastball on the fly to escape a jam, quoting battery-mate Chris Hoiles: "Well, I guess if you're going to use that pitch, we ought to have a sign for it." Verducci continued:

What's most impressive is that from 60 feet, six inches, Mussina can dot the i in his autograph with any one of six pitches. He has three fastballs (a cutter, a sinker and a riser), two curveballs (a slow curve and the knuckle curve) and an astonishingly deceptive changeup that is his best pitch. The rest of the pitching population is usually content to throw all changeups on the outer third of the plate. But Mussina is so adept at spotting his changeup that Hoiles often gives a location sign when calling for the pitch, a rare practice.

Mussina finished fourth in the AL in ERA in both 1994 and '95 (3.04 and 3.29, respectively), with fourth- and third-place finishes in WAR (5.4 and 6.1, respectively). He also led the AL in wins (19) and walk rate (2.0 per nine) for the only times in his career in 1995 but finished just fifth in the Cy Young balloting—not that he had any business winning over Randy Johnson (18–2, 2.48 ERA, 8.6 WAR). The Orioles went 63–49 in 1994, in position to challenge for the new wild-card spot when the strike hit, but finished just 71–73 the following year.

In 1996, under new manager Davey Johnson, a star-studded cast featuring future Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar, Eddie Murray and Cal Ripken as well as Brady Anderson, Rafael Palmeiro and more came together to win 88 games and the AL wild card. Aided by an offense that cranked out 5.82 runs per game, Mussina overcame his own gaudy 4.81 ERA (still a 103 ERA+) and again notched 19 wins. He also struck out 204 hitters, fourth in the league and his first of four times reaching the 200 plateau. In his first taste of playoff action, he wasn't particularly effective, allowing a combined nine runs in 13 2/3 innings against the Indians in the Division Series and the Yankees in the ALCS.

In 1997, Mussina improved to a 3.20 ERA (sixth in the league) and 218 strikeouts (fourth) in 224 2/3 innings as the Orioles stormed to 98 wins and their first AL East title since '83. Stellar in the playoffs, he pitched to a 1.24 ERA in four starts, striking out 41—the most by a pitcher in a single postseason without reaching the World Series—in 29 innings. Facing the Mariners in the Division Series, he outdueled the Big Unit in both Games 1 and 4, administering the coup de grâce with a combined two-hitter in the latter. In his coverage for SI, Verducci harped on Mussina's repeated failure to win 20 games but wrote approvingly of his pitching style: "What makes Mussina so difficult to hit is that he morphs the best qualities of a power pitcher and a finesse pitcher. At times he blew his fastball at 93 mph past Seattle. Other times he dropped in knuckle curves when he was behind on the count."

Facing the Indians in Game 3 of the ALCS, Mussina was even more brilliant, whiffing an LCS record 15 over seven innings and allowing just three hits and one run. Even so, the Orioles lost 2–1 in 12 innings when Marquis Grissom stole home with the winning run. As agony goes, that was nothing compared to Mussina winding up on the short end in Game 6 despite eight innings of one-hit shutout ball. The two teams remained deadlocked until the top of the 11th, when Armando Benitez served up what proved to be a pennant-clinching solo homer by Cleveland's Tony Fernandez.

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Mussina had signed a below-market three-year, $21.5 million contract extension in May, and despite the Orioles falling short that fall, their future looked bright. Alas, a feud with owner Peter Angelos led Johnson to resign the same day he won AL Manager of the Year honors. The O's wouldn't post a winning season again until 2012.

Mussina played out the string in as Baltimore collapsed into 70-something win ignominy, averaging 216 innings with a 3.60 ERA (129 ERA+), 5.0 WAR and his typically stellar 4.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio from 1998–2000. He finished second in the Cy Young voting in 1999, the best showing of his career, but Martinez  (23–4, 2.07 ERA, 243 ERA+) won unanimously.

As the Orioles' roster was ripped apart, Angelos took a glacial approach to Mussina's pending free agency, gradually raising the team's offer from five years and $50 million to six and $78 million, albeit with $12 million deferred. Turned off by the slow pace of negotiations and by the team's protracted rebuilding process, Mussina instead opted for a six-year, $88.5 million deal from the Yankees, who were riding a streak of three straight world championships. "There have been only a couple years in my career when I knew we were going to win," he said of his time in Baltimore upon signing. "That's what I look forward to experiencing again." The new deal made Mussina the game's fifth-highest paid player.

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Mussina and the Yankees did their share of winning in 2001. In his pinstriped debut on April 5, he tossed 7 2/3 innings and got the win in a 1–0 squeaker against the Royals. On May 1, he threw a three-hit, 10-strikeout shutout against the Twins. On Sept. 2 at Fenway Park—in a matchup against David Cone, the man he replaced in the Yankees' rotation—he struck out 13 and came within one strike of completing a perfect game, allowing a two-out, two-strike single to Carl Everett before closing out a 1–0 win. Roger Angell’s New Yorker account found Mussina shocked and dour in victory; Cone (who had authored a perfect game for New York two years earlier) was rejuvenated even in defeat.

For that first year in pinstripes, Mussina delivered a 3.15 ERA (143 ERA+), his lowest mark since 1994. That ERA and his career highs in both strikeouts (214) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.1) all ranked second in the AL, and his 7.1 WAR led the league for the only time in his career. Alas, he finished fifth in the Cy Young race, losing to teammate Clemens, who had an inferior season (20–3, 3.51 ERA, 5.6 WAR) save for the league’s fourth-best offensive support (5.7 runs per game), which boosted his win total. Mussina (17–11) had received just 4.2 runs per game, the league's fifth-lowest rate.

The Yankees won 95 games and their fourth straight pennant that season, with Mussina again coming up big in October. With the Yankees down 2–0 in the Division Series against Oakland, he delivered seven shutout innings in Game 3, aided by Derek Jeter's legendary flip play. After a solid six-inning, two-run start in Game 2 of the ALCS against the Mariners, he was roughed up by the Diamondbacks in the World Series opener but rebounded to whiff 10 in eight strong innings in Game 5, which the Yankees won in the 12th. The Yankees ultimately came within one inning of their fourth straight title—and Mussina's first—but Mariano Rivera unraveled in the ninth inning of Game 7. So it goes.

After a so-so 2002, Mussina helped the Yankees back to the World Series in '03. He ranked eighth in ERA (3.40) and fifth in WAR (6.6) for the 101-win AL East champs, though his October had ups and downs. He worked seven innings in a losing cause against the Twins in Game 1 of the Division Series, was knocked around by the Red Sox in the ALCS opener and wound up on the short end despite a 10-strikeout performance in 6 2/3 innings in Game 4. When Clemens fell behind 4–0 and failed to retire any of the three batters he faced in the fourth inning of Game 7, manager Joe Torre summoned Mussina out of the bullpen for the first relief appearance of his professional career. He was nails: With runners on first and third, he whiffed Jason Varitek on three pitches, then got Johnny Damon to ground into a double play to escape the jam. He worked three scoreless innings, an unsung hero in a game the Yankees won in 11 on Aaron Boone's walk-off homer.

Mussina started Game 3 of the World Series against the Marlins, battling Josh Beckett to a 1–1 draw through seven innings despite a 39-minute rain delay in the fifth. The Yankees took the lead in the eighth and broke the game open in the ninth, giving them a 2–1 series lead. Mussina was lined up for Game 7, but the call never came, as New York lost the next three games.

Things started going downhill for Mussina in 2004, his age-35 season, as he lost six weeks to elbow tightness. From 2004 to '07, he averaged just 173 innings a year due to injuries, never topping 200. His 4.36 ERA over that span was still good for a 102 ERA+, but that owed to one exceptional season (2006: 3.51 ERA, 129 ERA+, 5.0 WAR) offsetting three mediocre ones; for the stretch, he averaged a modest 2.9 WAR.

The Yankees officially declined Mussina's $17 million option for 2007, though they wound up reworking it into a two-year, $23 million deal. Initially, they might have wished they hadn't, as Mussina was pounded for a career-worst 5.15 ERA and battled back and leg woes. After a three-start stretch in August in which he was rocked for 20 runs in 9 2/3 innings, he was dropped from the rotation, though he salvaged some dignity with a 13 2/3-inning scoreless streak upon returning.

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He salvaged even more dignity the following year, defying both his age (39) and a rocky first month. He made a league-high 34 starts, tossing 200 1/3 innings—his first time above 200 since 2003—with a 3.37 ERA. The real story, aside from the Yankees missing the playoffs for the first time since the strike, was that he finally reached 20 wins. He did it by allowing just one run over his final 17 innings across three starts. The last came in Fenway Park, the site of his crushing near-perfecto, as the opener of a doubleheader on the final day of the season. Mussina’s six shutout innings against the wild-card-winning Red Sox granted him the milestone win that had long eluded him, making him the oldest pitcher to reach that plateau for the first time.

That win was the 270th of his career. Realizing that a pursuit of 300 might mean a three-year slog and feeling the strong pull of Montoursville, he instead retired, virtually unprecedented for a 20-game winner. As The New York Times noted, only three pitchers in the previous century won at least 20 games in their final seasons: Eddie Cicotte and Lefty Williams in 1920, just before being banned for life for their involvement in the Black Sox scandal; and Sandy Koufax in '66, before elbow problems forced his retirement. Though he had millions of reasons to stay (in the form of dollars on his next contract), Mussina walked away, following the old showbiz adage, "Always leave 'em wanting more."

Two hundred and seventy is not 300, but even so, Mussina ranks 33rd all-time in wins, tied with Hall of Famer Burleigh Grimes and above Jim Palmer (268), Bob Feller (266), Bob Gibson (251) and 31 other enshrined starting pitchers, including Martinez (219) and Smoltz (213). Those last two are double the total of sub-300 win starters elected by the BBWAA from 1992 to 2014; Blyleven—elected in '11, his 14th year of eligibility, with 287 wins—is the exception.

Moving beyond that, Mussina's 2,813 strikeouts rank 20th all-time, and his rate of 7.1 strikeouts per nine is tenth among pitchers with at least 3,000 innings. That's partially a product of pitching in an era where strikeout rates were almost continually on the rise, but it's impressive nonetheless. Even more impressive is that his 3.58 strikeout-to-walk ratio is second only to Schilling among pitchers with at least 3,000 innings since 1893, when the distance from the rubber to home plate was lengthened to 60' 6".

As for the postseason, Mussina may not have gotten a ring, but his 3.42 ERA in 139 2/3 innings is no small feat given the high-scoring era; it's 0.26 lower than his regular-season ERA, which itself was 23% better than the park-adjusted league average and is tied for 23rd all-time. Aided by the three tiers of playoffs during the bulk of his career, his 145 postseason strikeouts rank fifth all-time, and his 9.3 strikeouts per nine are fourth among the 22 pitchers with at least 100 postseason innings (Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Randy Johnson outrank him, the first two having reached the innings threshold in 2017). Sadly, Mussina's teams only won nine of his 23 postseason starts because they supported him with just 3.1 runs per game; only four times did they even give him more than four runs. He had a few dud starts (three of less than five innings) among them, but it's tough to pin his failure to win a championship on him.

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As for the advanced metrics, Mussina stands tall thanks to his combination of run prevention and strikeouts (for which he doesn't have to share credit—and thus value—with his fielders). His 83.0 career WAR ranks 23rd all-time, ahead of 41 of the 62 enshrined starting pitchers; it's 14th among post-World War II pitchers. That total is 1.5 wins above 2014 honoree Glavine, who has an almost identical career/peak/JAWS line, and 9.1 above the average for enshrined starters. Mussina's peak WAR of 44.5 doesn't stack up as well; while it's still 66th all-time, it tops only 22 enshrined starters and is 5.8 wins below the average one. Even so, his 63.8 JAWS is 1.7 points above the Hall average, good for 28th all-time, one spot below Schilling (64.5) and two above Glavine (62.9). His score beats those of 38 enshrined starters. He's good enough for Cooperstown.

The Moose won't be loose in upstate New York in 2018, but he’s overcome a very slow start to his candidacy. Matched up against the five 2014 and ’15 first-year candidates (Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Martinez and Smoltz) who won at least one Cy Young award, and three of whom won at least 300 games, he received a disappointing 20.3% in his debut and then 24.6% in his second year, lower than all but two post-1966 candidates who were eventually elected, Duke Snider (24.7%) and Bert Blyleven (14.1%). Fortunately, he gained 18.4% in 2016, more than any holdover on the ballot, and backed that with an 8.8% gain to 51.8% in 2017. That 50% threshold is key; excluding current candidates, only Gil Hodges, Jack Morris and Lee Smith have gotten such support without getting elected; the last two took 11 and 10 years to get there, respectively.

In other words, Mussina now has a plausible path to a plaque, though it could take some time. Of the eight players besides Mussina to receive between 45–60% in their fourth year on the ballot, two are currently candidates namely Clemens and Schilling (whose post-career self-immolation cost him support last year). Five of the other six were elected by the writers, needing an average of 4.6 years to get in, with Don Drysdale’s six years the longest wait. The sixth, Jim Bunning, was eventually elected by the Veterans Commitee, after getting as close as 74.2% in his 12th year of eligibility.

With no starting pitchers with even borderline credentials reaching the ballot until 2019, when Roy Halladay and Andy Pettitte become eligible, Mussina (and Schilling) have one more year in the ballot spotlight alongside Clemens, whose connection to performance-enhancing drugs has put him in a different limbo. Like Blyleven, a high-strikeout pitcher from an earlier era whose dominance over hitters and excellence in run prevention was initially overshadowed by his lack of Cy Young hardware, the numbers and the facts are on Mussina’s side. Soon enough, they’ll carry the day.