MLB Daily Best Bets: Taking Advantage of Jon Lester's Regression

The Jon Lester regression has set in, so bettors should take advantage of a lower than expected total in Cubs-Pirates.

Our other MLB betting expert, Gabriel Baumgaertner, is on vacation until Sunday, so Kenny Ducey is picking up the slack with Thursday's picks. He's eyeing one day baseball affair as well as an over featuring a strong regression candidate on the hill. Here are his top bets, with the current odds from William Hill listed.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: OVER 8 Runs (-115)

Masahiro Tanaka is a huge over guy, so I'm confident the Rays will be able to come through against him. On the other side, I don't worry too much about this Yankees lineup—finally hitting Miguel Andujar No. 3—scratching out a couple against Blake Snell, who struggled in his last start in the Bronx. We might have to sweat here, but an offensive breakout feels imminent.

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves: Rockies ML (-116)

I got this at -115 and it's going to climb higher. Jon Gray vs. Julio Teheran is a no-brainer for me. Gray is back as hell and Teheran sucks. That's how we bet, baby.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: OVER 8.5 Runs (-110)

The Jon Lester regression has set in, so let's take advantage of this low-ish total. Both these teams provided the hits yesterday, and they should continue making solid contact with two hittable pitchers on the hill tonight.

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals: Nationals ML (+115)

Look, betting the Nats right now seems like a foolish thing to do. I get it. But, hear me out! Washington has shown a ton of heart in all these games, not going quietly, and I think this could be a good spot for them to finally get a win and turn things around as we head into the home stretch of the season. Luke Weaver isn't very good, and Tanner Roark has been somewhat of a stopper a few times this season. I think we could see an inspired performance from this Nationals team, but then again, it's the Nats. If you're feeling lucky, take this.

Records: Kenny Ducey 4-4-1, Gabriel Baumgaertner 4-5-1