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MLB Power Rankings: Which Teams' World Series Odds Swung After the Trade Deadline?

This week's Power Rankings take a look around the baseball landscape post-trade deadline. Whose World Series odds swung in the most interesting way?

Emma Baccellieri

MLB Power Rankings: Which Teams' World Series Odds Swung After the Trade Deadline?
MLB Power Rankings: Which Teams' World Series Odds Swung After the Trade Deadline? /

Baseball has made it to the other side of the trade deadline. For this week’s Power Rankings, though, we’re going back—to the World Series odds on the morning of July 31, to highlight the ten teams whose chances experienced the most interesting swings on Deadline Day.

(We’re using WestGate Las Vegas SuperBook’s odds here; as a refresher, for those who need it, “+50,000” means that you’d profit $50,000 if you bet $100 and the team won, “+200” means that you’d profit $200, and so on.) To the list!

30. Detroit Tigers (32-72; Last Week: 29)

29. Baltimore Orioles (36-72; Last Week: 30)

28. Kansas City Royals (40-70; Last Week: 27)

27. Miami Marlins (42-65; Last Week: 28)

26. Chicago White Sox (46-60; Last Week: 24)

25. Toronto Blue Jays (44-67; Last Week: 26)

24. Seattle Mariners (47-64; Last Week: 25)

23. Pittsburgh Pirates (47-61; Last Week: 23)

22. Colorado Rockies (50-59; Last Week: 22)

21. San Diego Padres (50-58; Last Week: 20)

20. Texas Rangers (54-54; Last Week: 18)

19. New York Mets (53-55; Last Week: 21)

18. Cincinnati Reds (50-57; Last Week: 19) 

17. Los Angeles Angels (56-54; Last Week: 17)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +10,000. Odds, July 31st Evening: +20,000.

On its face, this one might not seem particularly interesting. The Angels had an unsurprisingly quiet deadline—just like many other clubs who weren’t expected to do much. The difference? The Angels are the lowest ranked team whose inactivity actually mattered to their odds. (Unlike, say, the Rockies, Rangers, and White Sox, who were similarly quiet but had such long odds to begin with that it didn’t matter.) Could Los Angeles have done something different here, then? Say, picked up some of the pitching that it so sorely needs? ...Probably not. At least not in a way that would have made any sense.

16. San Francisco Giants (55-54; Last Week: 16)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +8,000. Odds, July 31st Evening: +20,000. 

This swing is a little curious, because San Francisco didn’t sell off its biggest pieces. Madison Bumgarner’s still here. So is Will Smith. Yes, the team did move some guys—they’ll miss the presence of Sam Dyson (Minnesota), and to a lesser extent, Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black (Milwaukee)—but none of its most significant trade targets were included on this list. And they added a bit, too! Scooter Gennett’s injury-filled year means that he’s not the addition that he would have been, say, a year ago, but he’s certainly still something. In all, San Francisco’s deadline didn’t seem to leave them this notably worse off for the immediate future, but here they are.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks (54-55; Last Week: 14) 

Odds, July 31st Morning: +10,000. Odds, July 31st Evening: +50,000.

Well, this one’s not surprising. Even if you decide to keep Robbie Ray, there’s going to be a certain hit that comes with moving Zack Greinke.

14. Philadelphia Phillies (57-51; Last Week: 13)

13. Milwaukee Brewers (57-53; Last Week: 15)

12. Washington Nationals (57-51; Last Week: 11)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +2,500. Odds, July 31st Evening: +3,000.

The Nationals used the deadline to address their biggest problem—the ‘pen. (Have you heard this one before?) They added Roenis Elias, Hunter Strickland, and Daniel Hudson. Why isn’t this reflected in their odds? Well, it probably doesn’t help that these three represent only a modest upgrade… meanwhile, NL East leader Atlanta also used the deadline to fix its problem ‘pen, but it got Shane Greene.

11. St. Louis Cardinals (58-50; Last Week: 12)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +1,600. Odds, July 31st Evening: +1,800.

The Cardinals are still on top of the NL Central, if only barely. But they largely sat quiet throughout the deadline, unlike division competition Chicago and Milwaukee. St. Louis could have benefitted from adding some pitching depth, but it deemed the price too high, and so the club still looks almost exactly the same as it did at the beginning of the week. (Minus the departure of the injured Jedd Gyorko, sent to the Dodgers, which… does not exactly qualify as an inspiring deadline move.)

10. Boston Red Sox (59-51; Last Week: 10)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +2,500. Odds, July 31st Evening: +3,000.

The Red Sox did nothing this week—and they really, really, really could have stood to do something. Dave Dombrowski said that he might have been more likely to make a move if the team had a chance at winning the division, but as is, it might end up on the outside looking in for the wild-card.

9. Chicago Cubs (57-51; Last Week: 8)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +1,800. Odds, July 31st Evening: +1,400.

The Cubs have plenty to be pleased with in their under-the-wire acquisition of Nicholas Castellanos—and, to a (considerably) lesser extent, the pick-up of Tony Kemp and David Phelps, too. The NL Central remains tight, but Chicago looks likelier than ever to come out on top. (It doesn’t hurt that Cole Hamels will come back this weekend, after being sidelined for more than a month with an oblique strain; Ben Zobrist, too, should be back soon.)

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8. Atlanta Braves (65-45; Last Week: 9)

7. Oakland Athletics (62-48; Last Week: 6)

6. Cleveland Indians (63-45; Last Week: 7)

5. Tampa Bay Rays (63-48; Last Week: 5)

4. New York Yankees (68-39; Last Week: 2)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +500. Odds, July 31st Evening: +600.

The Yankees needed a starting pitcher, which has been true for quite some time now. But they didn’t get one. Their AL East lead is comfortable enough to make it seem unlikely that they lose it… but it’s entirely another matter to survive October, and this pitching staff doesn’t seem particularly well equipped to pull it off.

3. Minnesota Twins (66-42; Last Week: 4)

2. Houston Astros (70-40; Last Week: 3)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +275. Odds, July 31st Evening: +200.

The Astros pulled off Wednesday’s biggest trade, and they were rewarded accordingly. Thanks to picking up Zack Greinke (and Aaron Sanchez, Martin Maldonado, and Joe Biagini), they became the sole favorite to win the World Series, after having previously shared the position the Dodgers. Houston’s roster had few weaknesses to begin with, but it’s now fixed what little it needed to. They’ve added catching depth and pitching depth—including, yes, a bona fide ace. The Astros’ rotation was already among the best in the game, and now it’s even better. It’s only fair that they seem like the crew most likely to survive October.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (72-39 Last Week: 1)

Odds, July 31st Morning: +275. Odds, July 31st Evening: +300.

The Dodgers and Astros opened the deadline with equal World Series odds. But Houston made big additions, while L.A…. didn’t. The odds reflect that. The Dodgers’ bullpen was in need of an upgrade, and it didn’t get one. They keep the No. 1 spot in our Power Rankings, as they’ve still played like the best team to date, but it won’t be surprising if that doesn’t hold.

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Emma Baccellieri
EMMA BACCELLIERI

Emma Baccellieri is a staff writer who focuses on baseball and women's sports for Sports Illustrated. She previously wrote for Baseball Prospectus and Deadspin, and has appeared on BBC News, PBS NewsHour and MLB Network. Baccellieri has been honored with multiple awards from the Society of American Baseball Research, including the SABR Analytics Conference Research Award in historical analysis (2022), McFarland-SABR Baseball Research Award (2020) and SABR Analytics Conference Research Award in contemporary commentary (2018). A graduate from Duke University, she’s also a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America.

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