Chicago Cubs 2020 Preview: Still Talented Enough to Reach October

Expect the Cubs to rebound under first-year manager David Ross and get back to October.

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With the chance to hit reset this offseason, the Cubs split the difference, firing the only manager alive to lead the team to a World Series but retaining the key players from those 2016 champs. David Ross, a part-time catcher on that club, takes over for Joe Maddon after three years at ESPN, becoming the latest MLB manager to assume the role with no experience. Chicago is counting on Ross’s relationships with his former teammates, as well as the knowledge he acquired during a 15-year career, to revitalize a club that had the third-highest payroll last season yet won just 84 games.

His first issue to address: the Cubs’ defense, which ranked 11th in the NL in efficiency. Though Jason Heyward’s power picked up, the five-time Gold Glover lost a step in rightfield, with a career low in defensive runs saved. Meanwhile, Albert Almora Jr.’s offense nosedived (.236 average, .271 OBP), forcing Maddon to bench his best centerfielder for a subpar defender in Ian Happ. Cubs pitchers struck out an additional 111 men last year, but still allowed an extra 57 hits and 72 runs. Some of those additional hits were homers, but some of them were hits falling in that didn’t drop in the previous three seasons.

If Ross can turn around his team’s defense, perhaps by leaning significantly on data-driven positioning, the Cubs should contend for a playoff spot. Their NL Central rivals did little over the winter to establish a clear front-runner in the division, and third baseman Kris Bryant, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, shortstop Javier Báez, righthander Kyle Hendricks and lefthander Jon Lester are more than capable of steering the club back to October. Yes, a bullpen headlined by Craig Kimbrel presents many questions, as does an aging rotation. But Chicago has enough to emerge on top in a decidedly undecided divison. — Joe Sheehan

Projected Record: 86-76, 1st in NL Central

Even after an embarrassing collapse at the end of 2019, it’s not unreasonable to expect a revitalization of Chicago’s veteran core under its first-time skipper.

Key Question: Will David Ross Reinvigorate His Club?

The backup catcher from the 2016 World Series team is now managing some of his former teammates. Could this new, yet familiar, voice of authority be what Chicago needs to make one last stand before abandoning hopes for a second ring? – Matt Martell

Player Spotlight

Moving Up: Brad Wieck, RP

A lefthander acquired from the Padres last year, Wieck fanned 18 in 10 innings last September and held righthanders to a .183 average in ’19.

Moving Down: Craig Kimbrel, RP

After signing with Chicago last June, Kimbrel imploded. He had the worst hard-hit rate of his career, jumping from 27.1% in ’18 to 50.0% in ’19.

Watchability Ranking: You Could Do Worse

This is almost the exact same team as the Cubs fielded in 2019, sans Castellanos and Cole Hamels. That means some notably fun spots (Javy Báez) and some notable question marks (the ‘pen) that should even out to a team that’s clear in the middle of the road so far as watchability. — Emma Baccellieri  

Preview of the 2030 Preview

Javier Báez, DF: He isn’t the offensive force he once was, but then again it’s not unusual for a 37-year-old to lose a little bat speed. What’s remarkable, though, is that Báez still has the fastest hands in the newly formed NL North—he slaps down tags at second base like he’s 27—which is why he’s been the Cubs’ designated fielder since 2029. We don’t want to say El Mago’s glove is the only reason he remains on the roster, but it makes his presence a lot more, um, defensible. — Craig Goldstein