Philadelphia Phillies Season Preview: Pressure Building to End Postseason Drought

In his first year as Phillies manager, Joe Girardi has a lot of expectations to manage.

Editor's note: Welcome to SI's MLB preview. Click here to view every team's outlook in 2020, including predictions, projections and, yes, a preview of the 2030 preview. Click here to read the Phillies fantasy preview.

After GM Matt Klentak rebuilt the lineup last offseason around rightfielder Bryce Harper, injuries ruined what was supposed to be the Phillies’ triumphant return to contention. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen suffered a torn left ACL in June. Starter Jake Arrieta tried to pitch through a bone spur, was ineffective and finally shut it down in August. Nearly the entire projected bullpen, including new closer David Robertson, a rock for a decade, landed on the injured list. Gabe Kapler did a better job as manager in 2019 than he did in ’18, but the combination of high expectations and lost players did him in.

Enter Joe Girardi, Kapler’s successor and similarly a data-driven manager. When you’ve won a World Series, though, you get more rope. Girardi inherits the fruits of last year’s shopping spree, plus his old shortstop with the Yankees, Didi Gregorius, and a second potential ace (after Aaron Nola) in former Mets righthander Zack Wheeler. Though Robertson will miss most of the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August, Philly’s relief core has as much raw stuff as any National League team's, and Girardi made his bones with handling deep and powerful bullpens in New York.

Win or lose, though, the story will be Harper. It won’t go unmentioned that the Nationals won the World Series in the year after he left, while his new team failed to reach the playoffs for the eighth year in a row. Harper had a fairly typical season at the plate (.260/.372/.510 with 35 homers), played much better defense than he did in his last year in D.C. and missed just five games. It wasn’t his fault the Phillies fell short, but until he gets back to October, maybe until he wins a ring himself, the 2019 Nationals will cast a shadow over Harper’s career. — Joe Sheehan

Projected Record: 83-79, 4th in NL East

The Phillies made the right managerial hire with Joe Girardi, and Bryce Harper will be better in Year 2. But their lack of starting pitching will keep them out of October.

Key Question: How Will Year 2 of Bryce Harper Go?

Harper was a really good player last season. He slashed .260/.372/.510 with 35 home runs, 4.2 WAR and a 125 OPS+, though that production was fueled by a monster second half. More acclimated in Philadelphia and more than a year removed from signing a $330 million contract, let’s see if that translates to a season worthy of the Harper hype. — Matt Martell

Player Spotlight

Moving Up: Scott Kingery, UTIL

After a down rookie season, he had 19 homers and 15 steals in 2019. In two years he has played everywhere but first base and catcher.

Moving Down: Jean Segura, SS

Since ’16 the shortstop’s OPS has fallen from .867 to .743 and defensively, his outs above average have dropped in back-to-back years. 

Watchability Ranking: Keep a Hand on the Remote

Let’s borrow an old saying from their new manager. The 2020 Phillies are not necessarily not what you want. They’re… fine. Which means that they’re not necessarily what you want, either. — Emma Baccellieri

Preview of the 2030 Preview

Bryce Harper, OF: The Phillies have received a decent return on the $330 million, 13-year investment they made in 2019. Harper has earned four Silver Sluggers—using a shortened swing that exchanged power for contact—and his second MVP at age 29, seven years after his first. But while his former team won the World Series the year after he left D.C., Harper has yet to deliver a title to Philly. Which explains why no player at Citizens Bank Park gets booed more. — Craig Goldstein