Can the Orioles Actually Make the Postseason?

The Yankees and Orioles are meeting this weekend in a season-defining series for both teams. Just as we all expected.

As a wise leader once said when faced with a daunting task: “Never tell me the odds.”

Orioles fans could not be blamed for failing to give their team much of a chance when this most unusual MLB season began in late July. Fangraphs put Baltimore’s playoff odds at 1.5% on Opening Day—which, if you’d spent much time watching the Orioles the past few years, seemed a bit generous.

Conversely, the Yankees began the season firmly entrenched in the inner circle of World Series contenders. FanGraphs pegged their playoff odds at 93% on July 23, a number that ballooned to 99.8% after the Bombers’ blistering 16-6 start.

Quite a bit has changed since then. The Yankees are battered and bruised, with the division-leading Rays speeding off into the distance. The Orioles, meanwhile, have lingered on the playoff periphery all year long, which sets up a weekend series between the two teams with enormous postseason implications.

Is the baseball world ready to watch the Orioles—losers of 223 games the previous two seasons—make the playoffs, while the Yankees sit at home?

Perhaps it’s unwise, you, a pessimist, might say, for Orioles fans to dream so big. But if we examine those 1.5% preseason odds a bit more closely, we can start to trust them a little less.

That number—1.5%—was based on projection models that weren’t particularly kind to Baltimore’s roster. The data compiled through the team’s first seven weeks can paint a clearer picture of who the “real” Orioles are, and help us determine whether this team is better than we all thought they’d be on Opening Day, or simply riding a lightning bolt of good fortune through a historically abridged season.

Baltimore Orioles second baseman Hanser Alberto (57) reacts after scoring a run / Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Before the season began, the Steamer projection model pegged just one Orioles hitter to be above league average (based on wRC+): D.J. Stewart (104 wRC+). So far, the Orioles have six hitters with at least 100 plate appearances who have been above average, and none of them are Stewart: Pedro Severino (149 wRC+), José Iglesias (145), Hanser Alberto (103), Anthony Santander (129), Pat Valaika (107) and Renato Núñez (113).

Those strong hitting results have not been flukes, either. Statcast’s expected outcomes data—which tracks what results could be expected given the quality of a hitter’s contact—paints a favorable picture of this group. Of the seven Orioles hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, four have posted expected wOBA marks better than league average (.335).

So Baltimore’s core offensive players have outperformed what was expected of them before the season began, and what we’ve seen so far does not appear to be fluky luck that’s ready to turn back into a pumpkin at any moment. But what about that pitching staff? 

Amazingly, Baltimore ranks 16th in the league in pitching fWAR, firmly in the middle of the pack yet representative of a substantial improvement from a year ago when the O’s set a new record for home runs allowed by late August.

Of course, two of the team’s top three pitchers this season (based on fWAR)—Tommy Milone and Mychal Givens—were traded away at the deadline, depleting a group that already wasn’t the deepest in the league. But this diminished Yankees lineup hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, either, as New York has been out-hit by Baltimore this season. The Yankees’ team wRC+ of 105 ranks 18th in the league, while the Orioles rank 16th (109 wRC+).

FanGraphs still views the Yankees as a safe bet to make the playoffs, with postseason odds at 92.5% as of Thursday. Following Wednesday’s loss to the Mets, the Orioles sit at just 9.2%, so it would still take something of a miracle for Baltimore to return to the postseason for the first time since 2016.

The 2020 season, with its 60-game schedule and expanded postseason field, was designed as a perfect breeding ground for strange outcomes. Having Orioles Magic crash the playoff party would be just about the most fitting flourish to a season for the ages.