SI

Mookie Betts and Fernando Tatís Jr. Are Locked in an MVP Race

It looks like the National League MVP voting will come down to the brightest stars in the NL West.

Nick Selbe

As the 2020 season speeds ahead for the stretch run, the National League postseason picture remains a muddled mess. Only three teams—the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Nationals—can be considered truly out of it, with the expanded playoff field keeping every other club in the running.

That same lack of separation can be applied to the NL's awards race. In such an abbreviated season, the margins between the top candidates are razor-thin. There isn't much differentiation between the stats of the top players, making it that much more difficult to distinguish between them. Let's dive in.

This piece will pick 10 MVP contenders, five Cy Young choices and three Rookie of the Year options, just like the actual BBWAA ballots. The rookie cutoff is 130 at bats or 50 innings from the season(s) prior. Stats in bold indicate National League leader; stats in bold and italics indicate MLB leader. All stats are current through games from Tuesday, Sept. 15.

MVP

1. Fernando Tatís Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

.286/.376/.594 (221 PA), 15 HR, 46 R, 40 RBI, 9 SB (1 CS), 23 BB, 162 OPS+, 2.4 bWAR

Though there are plenty of worthy candidates, this looks like a two-horse race, and each front-runner has his own compelling narrative.

For Tatís, it's fairly straightforward: He's the future face of the league, one of the most exciting players in recent memory and one who's taking a sledgehammer to baseball's arcane unwritten rules. 

The numbers paint a clear picture as well. He's played every game for the Padres this season and is tops in the NL in average exit velocity. If he were to play a 162-game season, he'd be on pace for just the 10th season of 10-plus fWAR by a hitter this century, joining a group that includes Barry Bonds (four times), Mike Trout (twice), Mookie Betts (2018), Buster Posey (2012) and Alex Rodriguez (2002).

2. Mookie Betts, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers

.304/.380/.602 (205 PA), 15 HR, 36 R, 35 RBI, 6 SB (2 CS), 22 BB, 162 OPS+, 3.0 bWAR

In his first season with the Dodgers, Betts is chasing history. He has a real shot at joining Frank Robinson as the only players to win MVPs in both leagues, after winning the award with the Red Sox two seasons ago. He hasn't quite ascended to the otherworldly level he reached in 2018, but he's not far off. 

Betts and Tatís have similar offensive profiles, and both are strong defensively. But Tatís holds a slight edge as a base runner and plays the more demanding position, so Betts takes the runner-up spot for now.

3. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves

.352/.465/.653 (208 PA), 11 HR, 42 R, 46 RBI, 1 SB (0 CS), 35 BB, 188 OPS+, 2.4 bWAR

We might be in the Dark Ages for first basemen production, but Freeman's never been better. His walk rate has shot up to Vottoian levels (17.1%), and his strikeout rate (13.4%) is the seventh-lowest among qualified NL hitters. He's the second-best hitter in the league on a park-adjusted basis and has more extra-base hits than anyone in baseball.

4. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals

.340/.399/.596 (208 PA), 9 HR, 38 R, 28 RBI, 9 SB (4 CS), 17 BB, 160 OPS+, 2.1 bWAR

Turner is in the midst of one of the most impressive seasons by a National League shortstop of all time. He's putting together the best power numbers of his career, with a .261 ISO and one homer every 20.4 at-bats. Turner's also cut down on his strikeouts, whiffing at a career-low 14.2% clip. He leads the majors in hits (64) and is tied for the NL lead in triples (four).

5. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Francisco Giants

.287/.392/.558 (204 PA), 9 HR, 35 R, 32 RBI, 2 SB (1 CS), 27 BB, 159 OPS+, 2.2 bWAR

Yastrzemski's winding road from seven-year minor leaguer to MVP candidate is remarkable. He's on the outside looking in to take home the hardware this season, but his consistent play has been key to the Giants' staying in playoff contention. For his big-league career, Yastrzemski has played 154 games with 615 plate appearances, batting .277/.353/.530 with 30 home runs and 4.5 fWAR.

6. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies

.299/.374/.554 (206 PA), 10 HR, 35 R, 24 RBI, 14 SB (1 CS), 22 BB, 130 OPS+, 1.9 bWAR

From Vinny Castilla to Todd Helton, every Rockies hitter of all time has been viewed with a skeptic's gaze. Historically, yes, their numbers on the road pale in comparison with their output at Coors Field. But Story's been strong outside of Colorado this season—and has been better offensively from from a park-adjusted perspective—posting a 131 wRC+ on the road compared to 126 at home. He's also greatly improved as a base stealer, swiping bags at an impressive 93% clip.

7. Juan Soto, LF, Washington Nationals

.350/.476/.726 (145 PA), 11 HR, 28 R, 31 RBI, 3 SB (1 CS), 27 BB, 213 OPS+, 1.4 bWAR

Soto would be firmly in the running for the award, but he's amassed roughly 60 fewer plate appearances than his competition. That might not sound like much, but it represents a significant gap given this Quibi version of a baseball season. His eye-popping rate stats keep him in the hunt, and perhaps by year's end his missed time won't stand out as much. Wherever he finishes, it's clear that Soto is on a fast track to being one of the best hitters of his generation.

8. Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres

.311/.375/.579 (216 PA), 13 HR, 38 R, 40 RBI, 5 SB (2 CS), 22 BB, 158 OPS+, 2.2 bWAR

Machado took a step back in 2019, the first year of his $300 million deal, but now he's in the midst of a season typical of his days in Baltimore. His power numbers have bounced back after he slugged a mere .462 last year, and his 10.6% walk rate is the highest of his career. Machado also remains one of the most durable players in the league—he's played in every game this season and has missed only 17 games in the past six years.

9. Michael Conforto, RF, New York Mets

.341/.427/.559 (206 PA), 9 HR, 36 R, 31 RBI, 3 SB (3 CS), 20 BB, 170 OPS+, 2.4 bWAR

Conforto's always been a bit underrated, yet he's brought his production to new heights this season. His huge leap in batting average and batting average on balls in play can be attributed to his career-high 30.3% line-drive rate. He's also proved to be no slouch on defense.

10. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

.314/.443/.507 (177 PA), 6 HR, 26 R, 18 RBI, 1 SB (0 CS), 32 BB, 159 OPS+, 1.8 bWAR

Goldschmidt (and the rest of the Cardinals) haven't played as many games as the other players on this list, so his counting stats don't look as impressive by comparison. His strikeout rate (14.2%) and walk rate (19.1%) are both career bests, though, making this a nice bounce-back year following a relatively down 2019.

Cy Young

1. Jacob deGrom, RHP, New York Mets

4-1 (9 GS), 54 IP, 1.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 79 K, 13 BB (6.08 K/BB), 4 HR, 1.96 FIP, 2.4 bWAR

Remember earlier when I mentioned razor-thin margins? The MVP race is close, but the Cy Young battle is what I had in mind. By my count, there are six pitchers who warrant mention, and I have room for only five (apologies in advance to Dinelson Lamet).

There can be only one winner, and by the narrowest of gaps deGrom gets the nod. A win would make deGrom the 11th pitcher to win three Cy Young Awards, and the third to win three straight (along with Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson). Good company.

2. Yu Darvish, RHP, Chicago Cubs

7-2 (10 GS), 63 IP, 2.00 ERA, 0.937 WHIP, 79 K, 12 BB (6.58 K/BB), 4 HR, 2.19 FIP, 2.4 bWAR

Darvish has rediscovered his form after suffering through a miserable past two seasons, dealing with injury and ineffectiveness. He's back to being his dominant self, holding opposing hitters to a .190 batting average against.

3. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves

6-0 (9 GS), 50 IP, 1.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 47 K, 17 BB (2.76 K/BB), 0 HR, 2.52 FIP, 2.9 bWAR

Fried has been a savior for a banged-up Braves rotation. He's missed some time with injury and doesn't have strikeout or walk numbers as impressive as his competitors do. But he's yet to allow a home run in 197 batters faced this season, and he hasn't given up more than three runs in any of his nine starts.

4. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

4-3 (9 GS), 58 IP, 1.71 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 83 K, 15 BB (5.53 K/BB), 7 HR, 2.84 FIP, 2.3 bWAR

Bauer has been outstanding in his final season before hitting free agency, setting himself up for what should be a nice payday. He's given up one run or fewer in six of his eight starts so far.

5. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

3-0 (10 G, 7 GS), 50 IP, 1.98 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 74 K, 22 BB (3.36 K/BB), 1 HR, 1.94 FIP, 1.8 bWAR

Burnes comes in at No. 5 here in part due to his fewer innings pitched compared with his competitors. That's not a bad place to be for a guy who owned an 8.82 ERA as a reliever in 2019. A big reason for Burnes's turnaround has been his cutter use—he threw the pitch less than 1% of the time last season but has upped that usage to 27.5% in 2020. Opposing batters are hitting just .167 against the pitch, with a 31.6% whiff rate.

Rookie of the Year

Jake Cronenworth (156 PA, .319/.378/.546, 4 HR, 24 R, 20 RBI, 3 SB, 151 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR)

Devin Williams (3-1, 18 G, 20 IP, 78 BF, 0.45 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 41 K, 8 BB, 1 HR, 1.10 FIP, 0.8 bWAR

Sixto Sánchez (3-1, 5 GS, 32 IP, 120 BF, 1.69 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 29 K, 5 BB, 3 HR, 3.27 FIP, 1.8 bWAR

This award seems like Cronenworth's to lose. He's been one of San Diego's most consistent hitters and has played a valuable role defensively, seeing time at all four infield spots. Williams has held opposing hitters to a .088 batting average (yes, you read that correctly), with a 52.6% strikeout rate. Sánchez has been electric in five outings and could surge up this list with a strong finish over his last couple of starts.

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Nick Selbe
NICK SELBE

Nick Selbe is a programming editor at Sports Illustrated who frequently writes about baseball and college sports. Before joining SI in March 2020 as a breaking/trending news writer, he worked for MLB Advanced Media, Yahoo Sports and Bleacher Report. Selbe received a bachelor's in communication from the University of Southern California.

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