MLB Playoff Power Rankings: Breaking Down All 16 Title Contenders

Let's dive into the best (and worst) of who and what we'll see this October.

Seemingly against all odds, Major League Baseball has just completed its most bizarre regular season in history. There were times when it seemed the 2020 campaign was doomed to be cut short, or even fail to launch entirely. Yet each team has reached its 60 game finish line (or 58 if you’re the Cardinals and Tigers, but who’s counting), meaning it’s time for some expanded postseason baseball.

Let's dive into the best (and worst) of who we'll see playing this October.

16. Milwaukee Brewers

This is the first time in franchise history the Brewers qualified for the playoffs in three straight seasons. (Don't mind the losing record.) Unfortunately, Brandon Woodruff is the only healthy starter manager Craig Counsell can count on. Ace Corbin Burnes is out until at least the division series with an oblique injury and Brett Anderson left Sunday’s start due to a blister on his index finger. But as we’ve seen over the last couple years, if there’s any manager who likes to get creative with his team’s pitching staff in the postseason, it’s Counsell. Is it too late to stretch out Josh Hader and Devin Williams?

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15. Houston Astros

Baseball’s Public Enemy No. 1 limps into the postseason having lost 16 of its last 24 games. The Astros are the No. 6 seed due to finishing second in their division, yet they’re the only AL playoffs with a losing record. Subpar seasons from Houston’s offensive core—namely José Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick—have demoted the Astros to also-ran status, but the postseason experience throughout the roster certainly carries some advantages. Houston’s top three starting pitchers (Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers and Framber Valdez) combined for a 3.83 ERA in 192 2/3 innings this season, with just 16 home runs allowed. For the Astros to make a surprise run, they’ll need strong showings from that trio.

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14. Miami Marlins

The Marlins have won the World Series every time they’ve qualified for the playoffs. What else do you need to know? But seriously, it’s clear that Miami was underrated by everyone going into this season. The young pitching staff matured faster than anyone expected, as Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sanchez have combined for a 3.38 ERA in 138 1/3 innings. Don Mattingly should win Manager of the Year after mixing and matching more players than any other team used while enduring a coronavirus outbreak that ensnared half the roster. There’s a resiliency in this club that could serve it well in October. 

13. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have relied on pitching and defense this season even though 2019 sensation Jack Flaherty (4.91 ERA) has taken a substantial step backwards. Adam Wainwright turned back the clock to pick up the slack alongside lefty Kwang-hyun Kim, a 32-year-old rookie with a 1.62 ERA despite striking out just 24 hitters in 39 innings. With the offense collectively recording a .694 OPS—ranking 25th in the league and only ahead of Cleveland among playoff teams—St. Louis will need to grind out low-scoring affairs to make some noise. It does seem like we’re overdue for a mediocre Cardinals team to make a deep October run …

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12. Toronto Blue Jays

The upstart Blue Jays enter the playoffs having won six of their last eight games, including taking three of four against the Yankees. Toronto has thrived on the long ball this season, ranking fourth in the AL with 88 home runs. Of chief concern for the Blue Jays is their rotation. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been phenomenal all year, but beyond him, reliable options are scarce. Taijuan Walker posted a 1.37 ERA in six starts after arriving in a trade from the Mariners, but the underlying numbers (4.14 FIP, 3.8 BB/9) weren’t nearly as encouraging. Other candidates to start—like Tanner Roark or Robbie Ray—don’t inspire much hope.

11. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds represent a scary first-round matchup for Atlanta in a three-game series despite being just the third team in MLB history to finish last in batting average (.212) and earn a postseason berth (The others are the 1906 White Sox and the 2007 Diamondbacks). That’s because National League Cy Young favorite Trevor Bauer and 2019 All-Stars Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo make up perhaps the most formidable rotation in the playoffs. They say pitching wins in the playoffs, and the Reds are set to put that popular notion to the test.

10. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox enter the playoffs on a 2-8 skid. During that downturn, the bats have fallen dead silent, with everybody not named Jose Abreu or Nick Madrigal going in the tank. Not the best time for a team-wide slump. For Chicago to rediscover its mojo, Dallas Keuchel and Lucas Giolito need to lead the charge, while the team’s sturdy bullpen must remain on course.

9. Chicago Cubs

There’s no sugarcoating Chicago’s offense this season. It’s been wildly disappointing, ranking 23rd in OPS (.702), behind far less talented teams like the Royals and Tigers. But there’s always a chance that struggling veterans who were a part of the 2016 championship team could rediscover some of their playoff magic and do enough to support a top-heavy, playoff-experienced rotation and a bullpen that’s quietly improved to an above-average unit following a ghastly start.

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8. New York Yankees

If you told Yankees fans on Opening Day that the team would only get 51 combined games from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and that Gary Sanchez would hit .147 for the season, they probably would have predicted a far worse fate than New York’s ultimate 33-27 record. The Yankees got sensational seasons from a group of unsung heroes in Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela and Clint Frazier. A resurgent J.A. Happ—who owns a 2.45 ERA with 36 strikeouts and five walks in his last six starts—gives New York an additional rotation piece to go along with Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka.

7. Oakland Athletics

The loss of Matt Chapman certainly takes some sting out of this A’s lineup, but it's still a deep group of hitters. The strength of the team lies in the bullpen, as Oakland relievers led MLB with a 2.72 ERA. Five A’s relief pitchers threw at least 20 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA: Liam Hendriks (1.78), Joakim Soria (2.82), Jake Diekman (0.42), J.B. Wendelken (1.80) and Yusmeiro Petit (1.66). Figuring out the rotation will be critical—Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea will likely start the first two games, but after that manager Bob Melvin could go with Jesús Luzardo, Mike Fiers or Mike Minor.

6. Atlanta Braves

The Braves offense scored one fewer run than the league-leading Dodgers while ranking first in hits (556), doubles (130) and OPS (.832). If top prospects Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright can effectively follow Max Fried in the rotation by merely keeping the Braves within striking distance during each game’s early stages, they can hand it off to an elite bullpen that should be able to hold down the fort as the offense does what it does.

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5. Cleveland Indians

Cleveland soars all the way to the top five thanks to its blistering 9-2 finish, which included a four-game sweep of the White Sox. The team’s issue all season has been its hitting, which has gone through too many extended cold streaks. José Ramírez has single-handedly dragged Cleveland’s offense to respectability down the stretch, batting .457/.537/1.065 with 16 extra-base hits in his last 13 games. With a three-headed pitching monster of Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco and Zach Plesac, the offense doesn’t need to do too much for Cleveland to go on a run.

4. San Diego Padres

The Padres scored the third-most runs in baseball and rank seventh in ERA (3.85), making them one of just three teams (Dodgers, White Sox) to place in the top 10 in both statistics. Recent injury scares to Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, who both left starts last week with biceps tightness, are concerning. But the Padres are optimistic about Lamet’s odds to start Game 1 of the wild-card round and haven’t ruled out Clevinger for that series, either.

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3. Minnesota Twins

When the dust settled, it was the Twins who sat atop the AL Central standings, winning the division for the second straight year and making their third postseason trip in four seasons. This year’s squad couldn’t quite keep pace with the record-setting power surge of last year’s lineup, but it was a more balanced team. Minnesota ranked third in combined pitching fWAR (9.7) and fourth in ERA (3.58). Kenta Maeda has been stellar all season, while Michael Pineda, Jose Berrios and Rich Hill all finished strong. Combined with a deep bullpen, this is among the most complete teams in the field. 

The Twins have not won a playoff series since 2002, and have lost a remarkable 14 consecutive postseason games. Thankfully for them, they’ll avoid the Yankees in the first round.

2. Tampa Bay Rays

Like any typical Rays playoff team, there aren’t a ton of names that are well-known to casual baseball observers, but there is strength in numbers with this team. Tampa Bay is one of six teams to rank in the top 10 in hitting fWAR and pitching fWAR. Its offense has seven hitters with at least 75 plate appearances and a wRC+ over 100 (which represents league average). The rotation features four quality arms in Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Ryan Yarbrough, while the bullpen led the majors in fWAR (3.6) and was third in ERA (3.37). The Rays might not be a name brand, but they’d be fitting champions in a year that was designed to be offbeat.

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1. Los Angeles Dodgers (Last Week: 1)

The Dodgers have never looked more dominant during their run of eight consecutive division titles after scoring the most runs in the league and recording the lowest staff ERA (3.08). This Dodgers core is starting to feel like the 1990s Braves—annual October pilgrimages ending in disappointment. It's been a long time since 1988. Could this be L.A.'s year?