The Yankees Can’t Replace Aaron Judge. That’s Why He’s Going to Free Agency.

He’s an enormous asset to New York: a home-grown slugger with a marketable brand all his own. This is the only time in his playing career that he will have this kind of earning power.

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During the lockout, when players fought for more money for young players, a veteran front office executive told me they already owned a tool to achieve that very goal.

“More five-year superstar players should go to hearing [in arbitration] at a high number,” the source said. “Even if you win a low percentage of those cases, the wins set new precedents. Five-year players in arbitration can compare themselves to players in any service class. So Trea Turner can compare himself to Francisco Lindor. And those wins set the bar for the group behind them.”

Most players take the safe route. They avoid the risk of animosity that can come with an arbitration hearing. Turner, for instance, agreed to a $21 million contract this season, far below Lindor’s average annual value of $34.1 million.

I was reminded of stars “pushing the envelope” of pay scales when Aaron Judge turned down the “safe route:” a seven-year contract extension from the Yankees at $30.5 million per year. Disregard the misleading referrals to “eight years and $230 million.” That’s a phony number that includes his 2022 salary that will be either $17 million or $22 million—the arbitration figures submitted by the player and the club—or something in between if they settle before a June hearing. The Yankees are trying to buy his free-agent years. That’s a whole different ballgame from when a player is under team control.

AP Photo/John Minchillo

The Yankees took the highly unusual step of announcing the terms of their offer, which did not seem to thrill Judge. (This, after the biggest arbitration gap of the season remains. Imagine the Yankees arguing against Judge in a hearing over $5 million.) Nothing wrong with what New York did, especially because as extensions go, the offer was indeed fair.

If Judge wants to maximize his value, however, the tool to do that is free agency. Eight of the 12 highest AAVs in baseball history resulted from the leverage of free agency. After the season, Judge can offer his services to any team, not just the Yankees. He has no plans to continue talking about the contract during the season.

“At the end of the year, I’m a free agent now,” Judge said to reporters Friday. “Talk to 30 teams. The Yankees will be one of those 30 teams.”

Taking the security of an extension (José Ramírez of the Guardians) or maximizing value as a free agent (Max Scherzer turned down a $144 million extension from Detroit before getting $210 million from Washington as a free agent in January 2015) is a personal decision. There is no “right” or “wrong” answer.

This is the only time in his professional career that Judge will have this kind of earning power. From 2017 to ’19, when he was third in the majors in OPS+ and fifth in slugging and bWAR, he earned just $1.85 million. Total.

Judge will play next season at age 31. At the end of his next contract, whether it is from the Yankees or another club, he will be too old to have anything close to this leverage.

Keep that in mind, then consider that the Yankees’ offer of $30.5 million per year is less than what they are paying Gerrit Cole through age 37 ($36 million), less than what they will pay Giancarlo Stanton from 2023 to ’25 ($32 million), less than what the Tigers paid Miguel Cabrera in his extension eight years ago ($37.15 in today’s dollars) and less than what the Angels paid Anthony Rendon as a free agent over seven years ($35 million).

Moreover, Judge is one of the handful or so biggest drawing cards in the game. Early in his career the Yankees helped promote him with a personalized section in the right field seats, the Judge’s Chambers, whence an actual Supreme Court justice once took in a ballgame. How much residual value is there for the player and the team for Judge to remain a Yankee? Much more than most players.

Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports

Before Zack Wheeler signed a five-year, $118 million contract with the Phillies, he circled back to the Mets to give the club a right of last refusal to keep him there. He heard nothing. Brodie Van Wagenen, then the GM, explained, “The projections we had for Zack—both short term and long term—did not match up to the market he was able to enjoy.” Wheeler has since gone next level with the Phillies.

A club should know its own players better than those they acquire. Relying on “projections” based on comps and aging patterns is an important part of planning. But the actuarial charts must be supplemented by knowledge of the player. And in this case, the charts are not much help because Judge is such an outlier. At 6' 7", 282 pounds, he is the biggest player in the majors, and as he turns 30 this month he has played fewer MLB games than Cody Bellinger, who is 26.

What kind of player will Judge be as he ages through his 30s? The Yankees felt confident enough to guarantee the big guy seven years, from ages 31 to 37. In baseball history, only six position players who weighed at least 250 pounds were still playing in the majors at 37: Jim Thome, A.J. Pierzynski, Cabrera and three backup catchers, José Molina, Erik Kratz and Corky Miller. None were outfielders.

Many 250-plus pounders did not hold up that long, including Prince Fielder (done at 32), Adam Dunn (34), Dmitri Young (34), Ryan Howard (36) and Frank Howard (36). Frank Howard seems like the closest comp to Judge. He was 6’ 7”, 255 pounds and a good enough athlete to once pull down 32 rebounds in a game for Ohio State at a holiday basketball tournament at Madison Square Garden. From ages 31 to 34, Howard posted an OPS+ of 167 and made the All-Star team all four seasons—his only such selections. But his career fizzled to a quiet end the next two seasons. He attempted to continue to play in Japan, but his back gave out.

Frank Howard played his last game 49 years ago. Given the advances in training, nutrition, medicine and diagnostics, the comp to Judge loses much of its meaning.

Injuries are a factor when deciding on a contract for Judge. He has missed 23% of the Yankees’ games since 2017. He has played only two seasons with 500 plate appearances—and each time finished in the top five in MVP voting. Shortstop Corey Seager brought a similar injury history to the free-agent market—just three seasons with 500 plate appearances, and one top-five MVP finish—and still scored $32.5 million per year from Texas through age 37. (Seager is three years younger than Judge.)

As Scherzer did, Judge is betting on himself, and willing to take the risk of another injury weakening his market. And yes, it is possible that Judge wants to remain a Yankee and get his true market value. The concepts do not have to be mutually exclusive.

Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Judge is an enormous asset to the Yankees: a homegrown slugger with a marketable brand all his own, much of which is due to his outlier size. Only four homegrown players have ever hit 300 homers for the Yankees: Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra and Mickey Mantle, whose last game, in 1968, was the most recent.

With the way he flicks fastballs into the short porch in right field, Judge is made for Yankee Stadium. He slugs .609 at the stadium. Only three players ever slugged better in New York City ballparks: Babe Ruth and Gehrig at Yankee Stadium and Duke Snider at Ebbets Field.

Take Judge out of the Yankees and Yankee Stadium for the next seven years, and there is nobody who can quite replace him, his popularity and his connection to the franchise. That’s why Judge is heading to free agency rather than already signed to an extension. He is a true outlier, with just this one chance to find out what he is worth.