Christian Yelich Is Back in MVP Form, Even If His Overall Numbers Don’t Show It Yet

In this week’s Five-Tool Newsletter, we also look at Shohei Ohtani’s Fenway masterpiece, the underrated (?) Manny Machado and the putrid Reds.

AP Photo/Morry Gash

First, there were signs of life.

In the April 25 edition of our MLB Power Rankings, Will Laws wrote about Christian Yelich’s rough start to the season in his blurb for the Brewers. At the time, Yelich had a .192/.302/.327 slash line and just one home run.

“That’s not a great start for those of us who are concerned that his MVP-caliber power stroke could be gone for good,” Will wrote. “Then again, his expected numbers (.251 xBA, .483 xSLG) are far better than his actual ones and he leads the league in hard-hit rate (62.9%). His barrel percentage (14.3%) is the second-best mark of his career. The caveat for the good and the bad with Yelich is it’s early.”

Since then, it appears the good has won out over the bad. Yelich is on an absolute tear, and so are the Brewers. They have played 10 games since that point, winning eight of them by a combined score of 74–31. In that span, Yelich is hitting .324/.405/.622 with three home runs, eight RBIs and 12 runs scored. He’s been even better over his last seven games: .417/.517/.875.

It’s true, all but one of those 10 games came against the Pirates, Cubs or Reds—three of the bottom four teams in the National League. But, obviously, beating up on them is far better than the alternative. If Yelich had continued to hit below the Mendoza Line after facing those woeful pitching staffs, there would be cause for concern.

Entering Friday, Yelich’s overall season numbers (.247/.343/.449, four home runs, 127 OPS+) still don’t reflect those of a player in MVP form. His underlying metrics suggest otherwise.

via Baseball Savant

Back in mid-February, Tom Verducci took a deep dive into the drastic declines of both Yelich and Cody Bellinger in the two seasons since 2019, when they were the two best players in the National League. Tom looked at Yelich’s history of performance, the underlying metrics, his health problems—first, a broken kneecap that ended what could’ve been his second straight MVP season in ’19; then, a recurring back injury, which forced him to sit out or try to play through in ’20 and ’21—and video of his at bats to figure out what went wrong and what the future would hold. Tom’s verdict: “Yelich could return to his 2019 level, or he could transition to [Don] Mattingly 2.0 version, or—worst-case scenario—he hits a steep decline like [Dale] Murphy. The condition of his back will have the biggest effect on that course.”

Based on Yelich’s performance thus far, his back is healthy and no longer affecting his ability to hit the ball hard and in the air. His ground ball rate this year (49.2%) is the second-lowest of his career, as is his topped percentage (30.8%); his low for each metric came in 2019, when he slugged better than he did when he won the MVP in ’18. He’s hitting the ball hard (58.5%) and barreling up more pitches (20%) more frequently than ever. His expected slugging percentage is a ridiculously good .613, and .164 above his actual mark—an indication that his slow start was due to bad luck rather than a continued regression.

The Brewers were No. 12 in those April 25 power rankings. They were 10–6 at the time and tied for first in the NL Central, mainly because of their electric pitching staff. But as has been the case for much of the last few years, there were concerns about their lineup. For the closing sentence of his assessment, Will wrote: “Milwaukee’s World Series hopes are riding on a Yelich resurgence.”

Well, the Yeli resurgence is here, and the Brewers are rolling. Come October, we’ll see if a World Series can follow.

Have any questions for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.

AP Photo/Morry Gash

1. THE OPENER

“Shohei Ohtani had already hit a ball 109 miles an hour and thrown 81 of his 99 pitches for strikes, so when he strode to the plate in the eighth inning of perhaps the greatest game ever played here, he lined a fastball off the Green Monster so hard he knocked his own number off the wall.”

That’s Stephanie Apstein writing from Fenway Park about the reigning AL MVP’s latest incredible performance. Ohtani’s final pitching line was exceptional: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K. He went 2-for-4 at the plate. Yet the box score doesn’t come anywhere near properly capturing Ohtani’s excellence in the Angels’ 8–0 win over the Red Sox. To truly grasp that, you’ll have to read Steph’s entire column, which you can find below.

The Day ‘Shotime’ Came to Fenway Park by Stephanie Apstein
Every aspect of the two-way player’s boundless skills was on display both on the mound and at the plate in the Angels’ 8–0 win.

AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

2. ICYMI

Let’s run through some of our other great SI baseball stories from this week.

How Concerned Should We Be About These Five Sluggish Starts? by Will Laws
Max Muncy, the Braves’ outfielders and Joey Votto are among the players we’re evaluating with the SI MLB Panic Meter.

The Sweeper Is MLB’s Trendiest Pitch, But It’s Not Entirely New by Emma Baccellieri
The slider-curve hybrid has been around for more than 50 years. Corey Kluber won two Cy Youngs with it. So why is it just catching on now?

Fifty Shades of MadBum: Ejection, Rejection and Unrequited Love by Matt Martell
The Diamondbacks’ ace could’ve avoided being ejected Wednesday by simply letting umpire Dan Bellino down softly. Instead, he broke his heart.

Jo Adell Squeezed Out of Angels’ Outstanding Outfield by Stephanie Apstein
The former top prospect was sent down to Triple A on Tuesday in the midst of another slow start while his peers thrive around him.

The Mariners’ Offense Is Much Improved, and It’s Only Getting Better by Nick Selbe
Seattle nearly made the postseason last year with an abysmal offense. Now, the lineup is raking, and its young hitters haven’t hit their groove yet.

Stop Paying Attention to Trevor Bauer by Stephanie Apstein
He is a man accused of horrific acts who continues to show no concern for the people who say he hurt them. He does not deserve the fame he has spent the last decade seeking.

The Biggest Surprises of the 2022 MLB Season So Far by Tom Verducci
The Dodgers’ pitching staff is historically great. Attendance is better than expected. The Sox (both of them!) can’t hit. Let’s take a look at what stood out in April.

MLB Power Rankings: Angels Surge Behind Baseball’s Best Offense by Nick Selbe
For the first time in Mike Trout’s career, Los Angeles begins May in first place in the AL West.

3. WORTH NOTING from Matt Martell

Let’s give some love to Manny Machado, who at this point in his career is criminally underrated. Among qualified hitters, the Padres’ third baseman leads the majors with 37 hits, 65 total bases, 25 runs scored, 2.5 bWAR and a 230 OPS+ (130% better than league average!). He is second in batting average (.374) to teammate Eric Hosmer (.376).

The Padres (17–9) enter play Friday just a half game behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Machado and Hosmer are the two main reasons why the Friars are among the best teams in the league despite being without Fernando Tatis Jr., who isn’t expected back from wrist surgery until the middle of June.

Machado is in his 11th MLB season, and he does not turn 30 until July 6. He is a career .281 hitter with 258 home runs and 47.7 bWAR. He’s an excellent defender and a sneaky good base runner. He’s under contract through the 2028 season, though he can opt out after next season, so he still has plenty of baseball left in him. Barring a steep decline or a sudden, career-ending injury, he is well on his way to the Hall of Fame.

AP Photo/Gregory Bull

4. W2W4 from Nick Selbe

The early returns on the Cardinals’ Jordan Hicks–starting pitcher experiment have been mixed. He’s been effective enough but has yet to complete four innings. Today’s outing in San Francisco should provide a stiff test.

Looking at the weekend slate, the streaking Brewers head to Atlanta, and Saturday’s matchup between Corbin Burnes and Max Fried should be a fun one. The reigning Cy Young Award winner has 43 strikeouts and just seven walks through 32 2/3 innings, looking every bit as dominant as he was last season. Fried, meanwhile, has given up just five earned runs in his last four starts and walked just one batter all season.

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5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

One more thing to watch this weekend: Will the Reds finally get their fourth (!) win of the season? A year that started out badly (“Where else are you going to go?”) has only gotten worse: Cincinnati’s -87 run differential is more than twice as bad as that of the next-worst team (Kansas City at -39) and its team ERA of 6.86 is by far the highest in MLB. Everything looks rough all around. I’d say there’s nowhere to go but up from here, but, well, if any team can find a way to circumvent that idea … it might be this one.

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox next Friday. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.