MLB Trade Deadline Primer: What to Know With a Month to Go

Also, happy Bobby Bonilla Day!

Cubs catcher Willson Contreras almost certainly is going to be dealt before the trade deadline :: Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports

We’re just about a month away from this year’s trade deadline, and the coming weeks surely will be dominated by rumors of the players who could be on the move before Aug. 2 at 6 p.m. ET.

This week, we saw the first big deal of the season, when the Mariners acquired veteran first baseman Carlos Santana from the Royals in exchange for two minor league pitchers. The interesting thing about the trade was that, at the time of the move on Monday, Seattle was seven games out of the final wild card spot with a 10.0% chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. After the team lost that night, those playoff odds fell to 7.5%. Many teams under similar circumstances wouldn’t have elected to add a 36-year-old who is a free agent after the season. But the Mariners aren’t like most teams, no matter where they sit in the standings. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, and they were expected to be contenders when this year began.

Last week, Stephanie Apstein wrote a column in which she wondered how much teams would actually value the third wild card. Would an additional playoff spot encourage front offices to upgrade their rosters before the deadline? Or would it just encourage mediocrity, with those same front offices thinking their teams could snag the final slot without adding players? Seattle’s decision to get Santana does not mean other fringe contenders will make a similar choice, but it does indicate that some of those clubs could be buyers. That adds uncertainty and, ultimately, excitement to the deadline discussions. Let’s take a look at some of the top story lines that could shape what happens before the deadline.

Fringe Contenders

How things play out over the next month will go a long way toward determining what these fringe teams will do. Right now, we’ll define fringe contenders as any team that is no more than seven games out of a playoff spot, excluding the Rays and Guardians, who are tied for the final AL wild card right now, and the Giants, who are just a game behind the Cardinals for the final NL wild card. Here are those fringe contenders, coming into Friday’s games:

American League

Rangers: 36–38, 3.5 GB in Wild Card

Angels: 37–41, 4.5 GB

Mariners: 37–41, 4.5 GB

White Sox: 35–39, 4.5 GB

Orioles: 35–42, 6.0 GB

National League

Phillies: 40–37, 2.5 GB in Wild Card

Marlins: 34–40, 7.0 GB

Of these seven teams, four can be considered definite buyers—Angels, Mariners, White Sox and Phillies. They entered the season with playoff aspirations, so they won’t punt on this year unless they completely fall out of the race over the next month.

The Rangers are in a weird spot. They signed both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien this offseason, as well as starting pitcher Jon Gray, but it seemed like those moves were more aimed at securing a strong core for the next five years rather than to contend this season. Don’t expect them to desperately trade away top prospects to reel in a rental relief pitcher or veteran bat. But, they could upgrade along the margins by dealing several lesser minor leaguers. Most likely, they’ll hold at the deadline and take their chances with the players already on the roster.

Now, on to the two most fascinating fringe teams, the Orioles and Marlins. Both teams are going to sell in some capacity, but they may not be trading away as many players as you’d expect. For a while, I thought Baltimore would deal at least a few of its outfielders for prospects. Now, I’m not so sure. Anthony Santander is under club control for the next two seasons, while Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays are around for the next three. The Orioles have been rebuilding for a long time, and those young, talented players are finally making their way through the minor leagues and onto the big league roster. It’s tough to see a path for the O’s in the loaded AL East any time soon, but it’s possible they could contend for a wild-card spot before long. If Baltimore thinks its wild-card window could open sometime in either 2023 or ’24, it could hold onto that trio of outfielders. In the end, veteran slugger Trey Mancini and breakout reliever Jorge Lopez might be the only two guys the Orioles trade before the deadline.

In an interview with the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and Craig Mish, Marlins GM Kim Ng said the next month will determine whether Miami buys or sells. “I wouldn’t put a number on it,” Ng said, when asked how close the team would have to be to add players before the deadline. “But you want to be within striking distance. I hope we get there. The club is playing a lot better this month than they were last month. We’re getting healthier.”

This is true. The Marlins are playing better and have gotten several key players back from injury. However, the odds are against them. FanGraphs gives them a 4.1% chance to make the playoffs this year. If they sell, first baseman Jesús Aguilar and relievers Anthony Banda and Steven Okert are the most likely players to be on the move.

Guardians

The Guardians (39–34) enter July tied with the Rays for the final wild-card spot, and they are just a game behind the Twins in the AL Central. Their success this season, as Tom Verducci wrote a few weeks ago, is sustainable, so we shouldn’t expect them to fall out of the race before the deadline.

That said, it’s also unlikely that they’ll be serious buyers at the deadline either. Their window for contention is just opening now, after a pretty quick retooling as opposed to a complete teardown, and their emergence in this year’s pennant race isn’t enough to make them deviate from their long-term plans. Look for them to add some depth on the bench and/or in the bullpen. They could also use a competent hitting catcher—only the Astros have had worse offensive production at the position than the Guardians (45 wRC+)—but so could plenty of other clubs in contention, and offensive catchers are in short supply across the league.

Willson Contreras

Speaking of offensive catchers, Contreras is the one who will be in high demand. He’s a free agent after this season, so the Cubs are probably going to trade him. Plenty of teams could use him, but the most obvious fits are the Giants and Astros.

Following Buster Posey’s retirement, San Francisco called up top prospect Joey Bart to take over for the franchise icon. Bart struggled and was optioned back to Triple A at the beginning of June. For the Giants, it’s actually better that Contreras is only under contract for the rest of this season. If they trade for Contreras, they wouldn’t be giving up on Bart as their catcher of the future. Instead, Bart would be able to work out his kinks in the minors this year without the pressure of having to be the starter on a San Francisco team in the thick of a heated playoff race, and the Giants would have arguably the best catcher in baseball for the final few months as they try to run down the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West and, maybe, earn one of the NL’s two first-round byes.

Houston loves Martín Maldonado, and thinks he brings immense value to the team as the everyday catcher despite his putrid bat. Astros pitchers rave about how much having him behind the plate makes them better. Contreras would boost the offense considerably, and he is a good defensive catcher, too, but it seems risky to bring in a new catcher who might not work as well with the pitching staff.

The Mets, White Sox, Padres, Rays and Guardians could also be in the mix for Contreras, but he seems like too great a fit for the Giants to expect him to go anywhere else.

Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds is the best outfielder who could be traded before the Aug. 2 deadline. The Yankees, Phillies and Padres are the three best fits for him :: AP Photo/Scott Kane

Outfield Help

The Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Phillies, Dodgers and Padres are among the teams that could add another outfielder before the deadline.

The two players who should draw the most interest are Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds and A’s right fielder Ramón Laureano. Both players will come at a steep price, though, because they are under club control for at least another two seasons. 

New York, Philadelphia and San Diego feel like the best fits for Reynolds, a switch hitter who could play both center and left field well. He was an All-Star last year, and after struggling to start this season, he came on strong (.333/.379/.610) in June. However, the thing with Reynolds is that the Pirates might not want to trade him. Like the Orioles, Pittsburgh’s young prospects are starting to join the big league club. That young core could propel the Pirates to contention before the time Reynolds is set to hit free agency after the 2025 season. He feels like the perfect veteran star for them to build around. Still, if they get an offer for Reynolds that’s too good to refuse, it’d be hard to imagine they wouldn’t take it.

Other outfielders who could be on the move: Andrew Benintendi (Royals), Ian Happ (Cubs), David Peralta (Diamondbacks) and Tommy Pham (Reds).

Have any questions for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.

1. THE OPENER

“The Orioles finished June by dropping two of three to the Mariners. But it didn’t particularly matter: Even with that pair of losses, Baltimore ended the month in a way it had not in a long, long time.”

That’s how Emma Baccellieri begins her column from yesterday about Baltimore’s first winning month since August 2017. It’s a fun look at a franchise that has been truly awful for five years.

The Orioles Finally Had a Winning Month! by Emma Baccellieri
Baltimore hadn’t done that since August 2017. Is this a turning point or just a reminder of how awful things have gone?

2. ICYMI

Let’s run through some of our other great SI baseball stories from this week.

Alek Manoah’s Slider Is the Key to His Breakout Season by Lochlahn March
The 24-year-old righthander has emerged as one of the best pitchers with one of the nastiest pitches in the American League.

Casey Close Denies He Withheld Braves’ Offer From Freddie Freeman by Tom Verducci
The agent said there is no truth to the report and that he is considering legal action.

Freddie Freeman’s Love for Atlanta Shouldn’t Alienate Los Angeles by Will Laws
He deeply cares about a team and city that shows him love. Dodgers fans should embrace him for that.

The Carlos Santana Move Sets the Tone for Trade Deadline Season by Nick Selbe
Jerry Dipoto’s free-wheeling ways could be a sign of the times as we enter a potentially unprecedented buyer’s market, even if there are fewer blockbusters this year.

Juan Soto’s Patience Is Being Tested Like Never Before by Tom Verducci
The 23-year-old superstar is the worst hitter in baseball against breaking pitches this season. What in the name of Ted Williams is going on?

3. WORTH NOTING from Tom Verducci

Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and the rest of the Yankees may be banging out home runs like a Fourth of July fireworks show, but the secret sauce of New York’s run toward the record of 116 wins is its defense. I dare anyone to find another team that turned around its defensive prowess so much so fast as the Yankees have done since last season.

Entering today, the Yankees led MLB with 49 defensive runs saved. Last year they ranked next to last at -41. Only Philadelphia was worse.

The Yankees significantly upgraded at second base, where Gleyber Torres already is +10 over DJ LeMahieu; third base, where Josh Donaldon already is +11 better than Gio Urshela; shortstop, where Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is +12 over the miscast Torres; and especially at catcher, where Jose Trevino is +22 over Gary Sánchez—and a major improvement on game-calling.

Yes, the Yankees have a deep pitching staff, but don’t separate pitching and defense. They are intertwined. The Yankees have allowed just nine unearned runs, a pace for 19 all season—way down from the 73 they permitted last year. They have cut the batting average on balls in play against them by 21 points, down from .286 to .265.

For all of their home runs, the reason the Yankees are chasing 116 wins and why they profile as a scary good postseason team is this undeniable fact: they are a great run prevention team.

4. W2W4 from Nick Selbe

After posting a winning month for the first time in nearly five years, all baseball-watching eyes are sure to descend on the Orioles as they head to Minnesota—OK, this is not the headliner of the weekend (but shout out to the O’s!). The biggest matchup to keep an eye on is the Padres-Dodgers showdown in Los Angeles, which began on Thursday night with a 3–1 Dodgers win. Sunday’s finale will be a cross-generational showdown between three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw and star rookie MacKenzie Gore.

Saturday will feature a can’t-miss pitching matchup between Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan. McClanahan leads the American League with a 1.77 ERA, while Gausman appears to have righted the ship after a few tough outings at the start of June. The Blue Jays ace struck out 10 across seven shutout innings against the Red Sox his last time out. McClanahan, meanwhile, has given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts with 81 strikeouts.

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

Happy Bobby Bonilla Day: It’s July 1, the day when the retired player receives his annual $1.2 million from the Mets, deferred payments that cover the amount that was still owed when the team released him in 1999. (These yearly lump sums began in 2009 and will go until 2035.) It’s easily the most notable of baseball’s deferred buyout payments—or, at the very least, the one that has become the subject of the most jokes online. But this year is a milestone for another: 2022 is the first year in decades that the Braves do not owe a payment to Bruce Sutter. Yes, the closer, who retired in 1988, was regularly getting somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.12 million through 2021. But no more!

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox next Friday. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.