The Juan Soto Sweepstakes and Other Things to Watch For on Trade Deadline Day

Where will the Nationals send their superstar? Will they deal him at all? Plus, other things to keep in mind for this eventful day in baseball.

By this time Wednesday, it will all be over. This is the last call for trades. Teams have until Tuesday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline to make their moves. Contenders are scrambling to improve their rosters for a playoff run, and trying not to sell off their future in the process. Rebuilders are looking to milk every last drop from their trade partners, hoping to get the best possible prospect package back to expedite their return to relevance.

It’s going to be an eventful day, even if Juan Soto, the best player available this season—perhaps ever—doesn’t get traded. Here are some things to keep in mind before things get underway.

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Soto Sweepstakes

The Soto bidding appears to be down to three teams: the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers. San Diego still seems like the frontrunner, if for no other reasons than that it has the biggest need for an impact bat and its general manager is A.J. Preller. If any of the three general managers are going to get extra creative to deal for Soto, it will be the one SI’s Emma Baccellieri dubbed the “noted deadline chaos agent” in her column about the puzzling Josh Hader trade.

So in what ways might Preller try to land Soto? Well, the first option is swapping a ton of prospects for Soto. It’s true that the Padres’ farm system isn’t as deep as it was a few years ago, but they still have enough quality young players to make something happen. This would leave their pipeline fairly dry, but Preller has long operated under the notion that many times until prospects are major leaguers, and sometimes even after that, their best use is as a trade chip for an established star. The most likely prospects to head to Washington in a Soto deal are shortstops C.J. Abrams and Jackson Merrill, outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood, and pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Dylan Lesko.

It’s crazy to think all of them would go in a trade to the Nationals just for one player, even if that player is Soto … unless another big name is also included. If this happens, that player appears to be first baseman Josh Bell. According to multiple reports this morning, the two teams are working on a trade package for Soto and Bell. To offset the cost, Washington may have to take on the remaining three years and $39 million of Eric Hosmer’s contract, in addition to what he’ll be owed over the final two months of this season. This shouldn’t be too much of a hurdle. For all the talk about Washington including Patrick Corbin and/or Stephen Strasburg in a Soto deal, the main reason the Nats are trading Soto is to get a haul of prospects who can help form the core of their next winning team. Attaching either one of the two over-the-hill starters would dilute the return, and if that’s the case, wouldn’t the opposite be true, too? If cost-cutting is not the primary concern for the Nationals, then they could be willing to pay Hosmer $13 million per year over the next three seasons.

The one thing that keeps coming up as a reason why the Cardinals won’t trade for Soto is their presumed inability to sign him to a long-term deal, either via a $500 million extension or for possibly more on a free-agent contract. That might be the case, just because you’d think the heavy hitters in New York and/or Los Angeles would outbid St. Louis. But just take a look at the contracts for the two highest paid Cardinals; there could be some flexibility for a Soto extension.

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Paul Goldschmidt	$26M	$26M	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nolan Arenado	$35M	$35M	$32M	$27M	$15M

Soto is eligible for free agency after the 2024 season, so at the same time Paul Goldschmidt comes off the books. Even if the Cardinals choose to re-sign their first baseman, he will be 37 by then and likely won’t command the same annual salary he’s making now. Meanwhile, Nolan Arenado’s annual salary declines over the final three years of his deal. If Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak wants to get creative with a Soto extension—say, $530 million over 12 years, with Soto’s annual salary being higher than the $44M AAV (which would be a record) and lower in the first few years while Goldschmidt and/or Arenado are still under contract—that might be enough to get it done.

The Dodgers are probably the least likely team of the three to trade for Soto, just because their prospect pool isn’t as deep as that of San Diego and St. Louis. Los Angeles already has traded many of them away for superstars, including to the Nationals in last year’s blockbuster for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Then again, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman can also get creative, and the Dodgers certainly have the money to extend or re-sign Soto. We’ve seen the two NL West rivals engage in arms races before. If the Dodgers think Soto is bound for San Diego, Friedman could swoop in just as he did last year with Scherzer and Turner.

PItching, pitching, pitching…

That’s what every contending team could use more of entering the final months of the season, yet there isn’t much to go around this year. Now that Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas have been traded, the best starting pitchers available are Tyler Mahle of the Reds and Noah Syndergaard of the Angels. Nathan Eovaldi of the Red Sox and Carlos Rodón of the Giants could also be available, though both of their teams are still in wild-card contention and could decide to keep them for at least the rest of the year.

Maybe we could see deals similar to the one Houston and Atlanta made Monday night. The Astros, who are among the few teams with starting pitching depth, traded Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta for left-handed reliever undefined, who was likely going to be the odd-man out in high leverage situations for the defending champs once Kirby Yates returns from injury. The Padres are another team with a surplus of starting pitching, and could stand to trade someone from their six-man rotation for another impact bat.

The Cubs hold the key

All-Stars Willson Contreras and Ian Happ, as well as closer David Robertson, could all be on the move Tuesday. Contreras is among the last players from the 2016 World Series team still with the Cubs, and he’s a free agent after this season. Considering the overall lack of great catchers, especially great offensive catchers, in the game today, let alone available at the deadline, expect Contreras to be moved before the day is through. The Mets, Guardians and Rays are the best fits for him, but don’t sleep on the Giants if they decide to buy instead of sell. Top prospect Joey Bart has struggled this season, but trading for Contreras wouldn’t signal they are giving up on him. Instead, Contreras could be a true rental. He could join San Francisco for the stretch run and split the catching duties with Bart while also getting starts at DH—don’t overlook the challenges of joining a new team midseason and having to lead a whole new pitching staff—before leaving in free agency after the year is over.

Ian Happ has been linked to the Blue Jays, who are in need of another left-handed bat. Happ is a switch-hitter and has experience playing all over the field, though he’s mostly used in center and left. If the Blue Jays trade for him, they could then send one of their right-handed hitters, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Teoscar Hernández, to a team that needs some more thump in its outfield but has a surplus of pitchers (read: Padres). Toronto could also ask for Robertson to be included with Happ, or in a separate deal.