MLB Power Rankings: The Mariners Are Climbing Up And Out of the Playoff Drought

A seven-game winning streak means Seattle might finally make it to October, while the AL Central race narrows and the Orioles’ young roster shines.

With Labor Day’s arrival, summer has unofficially given way to fall. But that doesn’t mean the heat is easing up—which is true of both the final few weeks of postseason race and for anyone who ventured outside this weekend.

For this week’s power rankings, we’ll take a peek at five teams at varying stages of the competitive spectrum. Two of our highlighted clubs are already looking ahead to next year, two are in the heat of the playoff race, and one is still alive yet treading water. Since it’s not getting any cooler anytime soon, let’s jump right into it.

30. Washington Nationals (Last Week: 30)

29. Oakland A’s (LW: 29)

28. Pittsburgh Pirates (LW: 28)

There’s no way to sugarcoat it: The Pirates have been downright terrible. With their loss Sunday to the Blue Jays, Pittsburgh moved to an abominable 10–30 since the All-Star break, the worst record across that stretch in the majors. The team has been swept in five of its 13 series during the second half, and opponents have outscored the Pirates by 75 runs during that span. Offense has been particularly hard to come by, with the lineup averaging just 3.2 runs per game, the second-worst mark in the majors.

Of the dozen Pirates hitters who have had at least 50 plate appearances in the second half, only two have put up a wRC+ better than league average (100): Bryan Reynolds (a 101 mark in 141 plate appearances) and Rodolfo Castro (146 in 80). Reynolds, who signed a two-year, $13.5 million contract after his All-Star campaign in 2021, got off to a rough start this season but has bounced back somewhat, posting an .835 OPS since the start of June. He’s become more susceptible to fastballs this year though: After punishing heaters in ’21 to the tune of a .339 batting average and .610 slugging percentage, he’s hit just .258 against fastballs while whiffing on 22.0% of his swings this year.

The rookie Castro struggled in a three-week promotion earlier this year and was eventually sent back down to the minors, only to be recalled Aug. 9. He’s taken advantage of his new opportunity, batting .286/.345/.520 with four home runs in 22 games.

Of course, no Pirates report would be complete without an Oneil Cruz update. The towering shortstop continues to defy Statcast logic and launch baseballs over the fence like projectile missiles, though, he’s struggled in his first attempts at big league pitching (unsurprisingly, as most rookie hitters do). But the talent is undeniable, and when it flashes, it soars. When Cruz gets fully acclimated to life in the majors, wins will start to come more frequently for the Buccos. For now, though, the bumps in the road appear to be here to stay.

Oneil Cruz hits absolute LASERS

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/krQtW37BSQ

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) September 4, 2022

27. Detroit Tigers (LW: 27)

26. Kansas City Royals (LW: 26)

25. Cincinnati Reds (LW: 25)

24. Colorado Rockies (LW: 24)

23. Chicago Cubs (LW: 22)

22. Miami Marlins (LW: 21)

About that sluggish Pittsburgh offense? It looks like the 1927 Yankees compared to what the Marlins have managed to muster. In 42 games since the break, Miami has scored a putrid 100 runs. Sunday’s loss to Atlanta was the team’s seventh straight, and the offense has scraped across just nine total runs during that stretch. The last time the Marlins won more than two games in a row was back on July 5, when a 2–1 win over the Angels brought Miami to within one game of .500. Since then, the team has gone 16–38.

That nonexistent offense has betrayed a more than serviceable pitching staff. The Marlins’ arms have put up a 4.05 ERA and 3.80 FIP since the break, striking out more than a batter an inning. Sandy Alcantara has cooled off a bit after his sizzling first half, but he nonetheless remains the favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award. The RHP has been accompanied by another talented young arm in lefthander Jesús Luzardo.

Alcantara struggled in Miami’s loss to Atlanta on Friday, giving up three home runs.  :: Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports

Luzardo missed nearly three months with an ominous forearm injury but returned to the club Aug. 1 and has been stellar ever since. In six starts, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer five times and has gone at least six innings four times. He owns a 3.56 K/BB ratio since coming back and has given up just one homer in 36 1/3 innings. Still just 24 years old, Luzardo is instilling confidence in Marlins fans he’ll be able to reach the potential he’s flashed throughout his young career with every outing.

Alongside Luzardo is Edward Cabrera, another 24-year-old who’s struck out 40 hitters in his last six starts with a 1.89 ERA and a .152 batting average against. Add on former first-round pick Braxton Garrett as part of the next wave of young Marlins arms, and fans might see a real push back toward contention. Now, if only they could develop some young hitters to help further the cause.

21. Los Angeles Angels (LW: 23)

20. Texas Rangers (LW: 20)

19. San Francisco Giants (LW: 17)

18. Boston Red Sox (LW: 19)

17. Chicago White Sox (LW: 18)

16. Minnesota Twins (LW: 15)

Reliever Jhoan Duran has been a bright spot for the Twins’ pitching rotation :: David Banks/USA TODAY Sports

15. Arizona Diamondbacks (LW: 16)

14. Cleveland Guardians (LW: 10)

Does anybody want to win the American League Central? The Guardians have seen their lead in the division evaporate thanks to a five-game losing streak, which was extended with Sunday’s 6–3 loss in 11 innings to Seattle. That put Cleveland in a tie with the Twins, with the .500 White Sox just two games behind. The combined run differential for these three clubs heading into the home stretch? A mere plus-19 runs.

Offense has completely left the building in Cleveland, with the Guardians getting shut out four times in the past seven games. The team has hit a total of 17 home runs in the past month, which tops only the Tigers during that span (16). Contact has not been an issue, with Cleveland sporting the lowest strikeout rate (17.3%) in the AL, yet there’s been almost no power to speak of, with the Guardians’ .104 ISO ranking sitting at dead last in the majors.

While the group as a whole has struggled of late, not all are to blame. José Ramírez, Andrés Giménez and Steven Kwan have all posted a wRC+ better than 120 in the last month, though, they haven’t gotten much help elsewhere in the lineup. Giménez in particular has been locked in at the plate. In his last 100 plate appearances, the All-Star is hitting .307/.380/.466 with three home runs while going a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts.

The next two weeks will likely determine the division winner. Cleveland plays the Twins eight times in their next 15 games, beginning with a three-game set at Minnesota this weekend. There’s a makeup game with the White Sox in that span, too, along with games against the sub-.500 Royals and Angels, so the time to rediscover some rhythm at the plate is now. If they can’t, the Guardians seem poised to miss the playoffs for the second straight year.

13. Milwaukee Brewers (LW: 14)

12. Baltimore Orioles (LW: 13)

How about these Orioles? Since the upstart birds traded away All-Star closer Jorge López and fan favorite Trey Mancini at the deadline, Baltimore has gone 20–11 to remain firmly in the thick of the wild-card race. Sunday’s 5–0 loss to the A’s snapped a four-game win streak, but the Orioles still have not lost more than two consecutive games since the start of July. Since then, the team is 36–18.

Despite parting ways with established key players, a wave of talent has arrived at Baltimore’s shore to impact the immediate and long-term future of the club. The latest to join the lineup is top prospect Gunnar Henderson, who represented the team at the Futures Game in Los Angeles this season and is considered by many to be the best prospect in baseball. Henderson hit .297/.416/.531 in 112 games across Double and Triple A this season before earning his promotion. He homered and had two hits in his big league debut Wednesday, and the 21-year-old has looked every bit the part after his first week in the majors.

Henderson is just one example of the young players that have come up in the Orioles’ organization and made an impact on its big league roster.  :: David Richard/USA Today network

The young stars like Henderson and Adley Rutschman get plenty of shine, but Baltimore’s mostly unsung pitching staff deserves loads of credit for being the backbone of this surprise run. The Orioles have the seventh-best team ERA (3.37) since the All-Star break, with the López-less bullpen in particular getting the job done. Since taking over as the full-time closer, Félix Bautista has gone a perfect 8-for-8 in save opportunities, allowing only two runs in 15 2/3 innings with 22 strikeouts. Opposing hitters have managed just seven hits in 57 plate appearances in the stretch, with only 11 total reaching base.

The rotation has also been sturdy, maintaining a solid baseline of performance that has been present for virtually the entire season. Since the All-Star break, the quartet of Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Kyle Bradish and Jordan Lyles have posted a combined 2.98 ERA in 172 1/3 innings. Kremer and Bradish—along with Spenser Watkins and Tyler Wells, who’s currently on the injured list with an oblique injury—are all under 30, giving Baltimore a nice foundation of young starting pitchers to build upon and add to with internal options. Lefthander DL Hall is back in the majors after debuting last month, and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez is back on the mound in the minors after missing three months with a lat strain. Regardless of how the wild-card race shakes out, the future is looking plenty bright in Baltimore.

11. San Diego Padres (LW: 12)

10. Philadelphia Phillies (LW: 7)

9. Toronto Blue Jays (LW: 11)

8. Tampa Bay Rays (LW: 9)

7. Seattle Mariners (LW: 8)

Mariners fans likely won’t celebrate until their team officially clinches its spot, but Seattle looks poised to finally—finally—get back to the postseason. The Mariners are a season-best 18 games over .500 and riding a seven-game winning streak after completing a perfect six-game road trip at Detroit and Cleveland. The pitching staff has been electric during this run, giving up just 10 total runs with three shutouts. Seattle has allowed more than four runs just once in its last 15 games.

Many have contributed to this sustained run prevention, but perhaps no one has been more vital than Robbie Ray. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner—who signed a $115 million deal with Seattle this offseason—had a rocky first couple of months but has since righted the ship, and has really rounded into form of late. In six starts since the beginning of August, Ray is 4–0 with a 1.38 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 39 innings. Opposing hitters have managed just a .185 batting average in that span, and Ray has gone at least six innings in each start. That’s exactly the type of production any contending team would take from its staff ace.

As brilliant as Ray has been, he’s nearly been matched by rookie George Kirby. The 24-year-old has been excellent since making his big league debut May 8, and truly hasn’t had many hiccups aside from a rogue disastrous outing against the Orioles on June 27, when he allowed seven runs in four innings.

Kirby was originally drafted in the first round in 2019 and was called up from Double A in May.  :: Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports

Since then, he’s been nearly untouchable, with a 2.22 ERA and 1.41 FIP in his last 10 starts. Sunday’s outing was interrupted due to a rain delay after three innings, so Kirby should be plenty rested his next time out against the Braves at home. The Mariners will play their next eight games against teams .500 or better before concluding the regular season with 20 games against clubs with losing records. That seems like a manageable road ahead to bring an end to a 21-year playoff drought.

6. New York Yankees (LW: 5)

5. St. Louis Cardinals (LW: 6)

4. Houston Astros (LW: 4)

3. Atlanta Braves (LW: 3)

2. New York Mets (LW: 2)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LW: 1)

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