Three Things That Will Decide the Mets–Padres Wild-Card Series

The matchup between No. 3 New York and No. 6 San Diego will come down to the production each team gets from its stars.

The Mets have spent more days in first place than any other team over the last two seasons, but they’ve been in second on the two days that matter. The Padres recovered from a disappointing 2021 to hang on for a wild-card spot. Whoever wins this one gets the chance to face the Dodgers in the National League Division Series.

Will Jacob deGrom be Jacob deGrom?

deGrom is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, but he’s struggled over his past four starts (0–3, 6.00 ERA) :: Gregory Fisher/USA TODAY Sports

The Mets have their one-two punch, righties Max Scherzer and deGrom, available for Games 1 and 2, respectively, which should give them a lot of confidence. But even aces can get beaten, as they both did last weekend in Atlanta, to help give away the division.

deGrom in particular has looked shaky lately. He returned in August from a 14-month absence spent recovering from a variety of injuries and initially regained his traditional form: Through seven starts, he had a 1.66 ERA and four walks allowed, and was averaging more than six innings per outing. But he gave up three runs in six innings to the sub-.500 Cubs, and three in five to the sub-everything Pirates, and five in four to the last-place A’s. Three runs in six innings to Atlanta last week actually qualified as a success during that stretch. The Mets said he was dealing with a blister. They will have to hope he has recovered in time to pitch Game 2.

Will Juan Soto be Juan Soto?

It took Soto some time to get going with his new team, but over his last 15 games, he’s returned to his prodigy form :: Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports

Soto is another star whose team needs him to be a star. The 23-year-old All-Star right fielder was in the middle of a season that is only disappointing for a player of his talent when the Nationals traded him to the Padres at the deadline, and then his play became disappointing for anyone. Through his first five weeks in San Diego, he hit .205 with a .696 OPS, easily the worst stretch of his career before this year.

He seems to have found something recently: He hit the ball hard 28.4% of the time until mid-September; since then, that figure has been 46.3%. He finished the season with a .309 batting average and a .969 OPS over the past 15 games. The Padres gave up a truckload of prospects for Soto in part because his precociousness gives them three postseason pushes with him. He hasn’t done much yet during this one. He has a chance to change that this week.

Will the Mets hit?

In the end, this question may render the first two moot. At its best, New York’s lineup torments opposing pitchers, extending plate appearances and moving the line with situational hitting. At its worst, it produces a series of uninspired at bats ending with rolled-over ground balls and quick late-game outs. Sometimes both teams emerge in the span of an inning or two.

The Mets could have mitigated this inconsistency—the team reportedly coveted Cubs catcher Willson Contreras and Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez at the deadline but found the asking price too high. (In the end, neither player was traded.) Instead, New York picked up outfielder Tyler Naquin from the Reds, DH Daniel Vogelbach from the Pirates and outfielder Darin Ruf from the Giants. Vogelbach has played well, but Naquin has a .636 OPS in New York and Ruf has hit .152 with no home runs.

But the Mets’ most pressing problem is their pressing. Outfielder Starling Marte was hit by a pitch on Sept. 6 and broke his right middle finger; he has been unable to grip a bat since. New York has felt his loss acutely. Marte was perhaps the team’s most mature hitter, able to stay patient and provide power. He has resumed some baseball activities but is not expected to be back in time for the Wild-Card Series. Someone else will have to try to provide what he offers.