Three Things That Will Decide Who Wins the Yankees-Guardians ALDS

New York is all about hitting home runs. Cleveland is not. Which team has the edge?

The youngest team in the sport heads to the Bronx to take on a juggernaut in the American League Division Series. Maybe playoff experience will help the Yankees—or maybe the Guardians will be too naive to realize they should be nervous. Here are three questions that may decide the series.

Will the Guardians pitch to Aaron Judge?

Judge hit .349/.502/.785 with 29 home runs in 68 games since the All-Star Break :: Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

This is more a question about the Yankees Nos. 2–9 hitters than it is about Judge. From August on, Judge had a 1.214 OPS and 20 home runs; over that same stretch, the rest of the team combined for a .625 OPS and 39 dingers. Is it any wonder that, especially as Judge neared the American League single-season home run record, opponents walked him 17 times in his last 55 plate appearances?

The five-day layoff afforded by the bye may help, as infielder Matt Carpenter, who hit 15 home runs in 47 games before breaking his left foot, is expected to be ready for the series, and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who had an .817 OPS but missed much of September recovering from a back injury, also got more time to rest up. (Infielder DJ LeMahieu, who is battling an injury to a toe on his right foot, and outfielder Andrew Benintendi, who has a broken right wrist, are less likely to be able to play.) Any protection would help.

“We don't want to back down from anybody,” Cleveland pitching coach Carl Willis said on Monday. “And at the same time, you know, we are not going to be stupid.”

Will Gerrit Cole keep the ball in the ballpark?

No one but the 96-loss Tigers hit fewer home runs than the Guardians this year and Cole is an ace, so this might seem like a gimme, but he has actually been very vulnerable to the longball: His 33 dingers allowed were the second-most among pitchers, and over his last five starts, he gave up nine in 23 ⅓ innings. Cole and the Yankees have been oblique about how they are trying to address the problem, but they acknowledge it’s a concern. Over the past four Octobers, 86.2% of games have been won by the team that hits more home runs.

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Who will close games for the Yankees?

The Bronx bullpen is a mess. Righty Ron Marinaccio, one of New York’s most reliable options down the stretch, suffered a stress reaction in his right shin and will not appear in the ALDS. Lefty Aroldis Chapman, who had been ineffective in 2022 but has a 2.40 ERA in 35 career postseason games, skipped a mandatory workout last week and will be left off the roster. Lefty Zack Britton, the erstwhile setup man, missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery and reinjured himself in his third appearance back. Righties Chad Green and Michael King are lost for the season. New York will have to cobble together innings from some combination of righties Lou Trivino, Scott Effross and Jonathan Loaisiga. Maybe the different looks will keep hitters off-balance. Or maybe the lack of defined roles will make it hard for the pitchers to settle in.