The Most Improbable Caught Stealing in a Long, Long Time

Also in today’s Five-Tool Newsletter … an Astro in exile, how Robert Suárez saved the Padres, nifty defense in Atlanta and more.

Mookie Betts is one of the most successful base stealers in MLB history :: Mark J. Terrill/AP

As soon as Padres starter Yu Darvish walked Mookie Betts to lead off the fifth inning of last night’s NLDS Game 2 at Dodger Stadium, nearly everybody watching the game knew Betts would try to swipe second base. And almost certainly, he would be safe.

The score was tied, 3–3. Getting into scoring position would give the Dodgers three chances to drive him in, with Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith due up next. In what had been a back-and-forth game, that run might have just been the one that would give Los Angeles a 2–0 lead in this best-of-five series.

The Padres this season were one of the worst teams in baseball history at stolen-base prevention, per Mike Petriello of MLB.com. In the regular season, San Diego had allowed 89 steals on 102 attempts (87.25%); Los Angeles was 98-for-116, a success rate of 84.48%, the best in the National League. Specifically against the Padres this year, the Dodgers went 13-for-13.

Meanwhile, Betts has a career stolen-base success rate of 82.29%, good for 19th best all time among players with at least 150 career steals, and Darvish is the worst pitcher ever at preventing stolen bases (88.55% SB rate, minimum 1,000 career IP).

This was the most obvious stolen-base attempt since Dave Roberts, Betts’s manager, swiped second off Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning of the 2004 ALCS, with the Red Sox down 4–3 in the game and 3–0 in the series, which led to the tying run and propelled the greatest comeback in sports history.

Here’s what happened next:

Turner steps in. Betts takes his lead. Darvish throws over. Safe.

Turner steps in. Betts takes his lead, bigger this time. Darvish throws over. Safe.

Timeout, something from the stands, a baseball maybe, ends up in left field. The ball girl retrieves it. Play ball.

Turner steps in. Betts takes an even bigger lead—as the great Phil Rizzuto would say in “Paradise by the Dashboard Light”—“almost daring him to try and pick him off now.” Darvish throws over. Safe.

The tension built with every pickoff attempt. At some point, Darvish would have to pitch, and whenever he did, Betts would take off for second. But when? That was the fun part of it all. Delaying the inevitable. Rising the anticipation.

Turner steps in. Betts takes his lead, his biggest one yet, perhaps two sidesteps further than his initial one. Darvish lifts his left leg. Betts goes. Darvish pitches, a breaking ball low in the zone. Turner shows bunt, pulls back.

Austin Nola receives it for a strike. He brings the glove to his throwing hand parallel to his ear as he ascends slightly from his crouch, replaces his left foot with his right, turns his body—careful not to move forward; doing so would waste valuable hundredths of a second—plants his right foot, steps and fires a perfect dart to the left side of second base. The ball meets Jake Cronenworth’s glove just before Betts does. Out.

This was baseball at its best. The improbable outcome that nobody expected. The improbable outcome that we all should have seen coming, simply because in this beautiful game, these most improbable things happen at the most crucial of moments. The Dodgers didn’t score that inning. The Padres pulled ahead in the top of the sixth and added an insurance run in the eighth. They won, 5–3, to even the series 1–1, heading into Games 3 and 4 at home, in front of San Diego fans that haven’t seen a home playoff game since 2006.

They have the momentum to pull off the upset over the greatest regular-season Dodgers team in history. Will they do it? It’ll be tough, despite having home-field advantage and their two other aces, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell, scheduled to pitch. Don’t forget, these are the Dodgers, who won 14 of their 19 games against the Padres this year, and six of their nine in San Diego.

Then again, this is baseball, the game where these most improbable things happen at the most crucial of moments.

Have any questions or comments for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.

1. THE OPENER

Thomas Lovelock/Sports Illustrated

“As the best team in the American League races to a double-digit division lead, its architect sits in the owner’s box of a half-full second-division Spanish soccer stadium on the outskirts of Madrid…

“Thirty-three months after being fired amid the Astros’ cheating scandal, [Jeff] Luhnow is the last man in exile… There are reasons for this. The others apologized. Luhnow still says he didn’t do anything wrong. The others are baseball lifers. Luhnow is a businessman. He remains a divisive figure, brimming with contradictions.”

That’s Stephanie Apstein, writing in today’s Daily Cover story about former Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow, who now owns two professional soccer teams, one in Spain and another in Mexico. Stephanie went to Madrid in August for the first match of Luhnow’s first season running CD Leganés, and she spoke with him at length about his role in Houston’s sign-stealing scandal, his legacy in MLB, his possible return to baseball and his desire to bring the kind of change to his second sport that he brought to his first.

Astro in Exile: Jeff Luhnow’s Next Act by Stephanie Apstein
Nearly all involved in the Astros’ cheating scandal have apologized and been welcomed back by MLB. But not Luhnow. Now running lower-level soccer teams in Spain and Mexico, the former GM says he doesn’t have anything to prove to anyone.

2. ICYMI

Here’s what else happened in last night’s NLDS games.

San Diego Saved by the Unlikeliest of Pitches From the Unlikeliest Hero by Tom Verducci
The Padres held on for a nailbiter of a Game 2 win over the Dodgers thanks to a heroic effort from their bullpen—most notably, Robert Suárez, a 31-year-old rookie reliever.

Kyle Wright Delivers Yet Another Win When Atlanta Needs It Most by Emma Baccellieri
The 2022 MLB wins leader took the mound Wednesday in what amounted to a must-win game for the Braves. He, and his curveball, responded with aplomb.

And in non-postseason news…

Carlos Correa to Opt Out of Twins Contract, Hit Free Agency by Wilton Jackson

3. WORTH NOTING from Tom Verducci

Watching the Padres pitch is a treat, what with starters going deep into games and relievers Robert Suárez and Josh Hader firing fastballs with fearlessness. But the wizardry of Yu Darvish is on another level. Nobody can spin the baseball like Darvish. Nobody can change the speed and shape of his pitches like Darvish.

Darvish is the Axl Rose of pitchers: his range is ridiculous. Check this out:

His six pitches have multiple variations. In NLDS Game 2 he threw pitches at 20 different speeds among his first 44 pitches.

But nothing was as entertaining as an at bat that ended with Max Muncy hitting a home run. The pitch speeds were dizzying in their variety: in sequence, 83, 92, 69, 79, 91, 72. That’s +9, -23, +10, +12, -19.

It was one at bat with six pitches in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s. Sounds like an AM oldies station.

4. W2W4 from Will Laws

It’s the American League’s turn today, but only one of the two scheduled games will be played. The Yankees and Guardians game, originally slated for 7:37 p.m. ET, was postponed to 1:07 p.m. ET tomorrow due to “the forecast of sustained inclement weather.” So the Mariners and Astros will be the only teams in action today, with their Game 2 set to begin at 3:37 p.m. ET on TBS.

Much has been made of the Dodgers’ domination of the Padres, especially in home games, over the past several years. But Houston has been even more ruthless at Minute Maid Park against the Mariners in recent years, compiling a 31–7 record when hosting Seattle since 2019. No loss was more painful for the Mariners than the one on Tuesday.

To even the series, the M’s will probably have to get the better of Framber Valdez, who’s established himself as MLB’s premier ground ball artist. However, he may have his work cut out for him with the Mariners, who own MLB’s fourth-lowest ground ball rate (40.4%) and fifth-highest fly ball rate (39.8%). Seattle is also flush with right-handed sluggers, and if they can get the ball in the air against the left-handed Valdez, they’ll have the advantage of aiming for the short left-field porch in a stadium that’s long haunted the Mariners.

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

Dansby Swanson is one of the best fielding shortstops in baseball. His nine defensive runs saved this season ranked fourth among National League shortstops :: John Bazemore/AP

Which was the sweeter catch last night: Dansby Swanson’s inning-ending dive or Austin Riley’s tarp-jumping grab? It’s a true… toss-up (sorry). But here’s Swanson’s take: “His was better. I didn't have to dodge a tarp… very underappreciated defender, a lot more athletic than people give him credit for. The guy's a gamer.”

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.