NLCS Predictions: Expert Picks for Padres vs. Phillies

After two upsets over world series favorites Dodgers and Braves, Juan Soto and San Diego face Philadelphia and Bryce Harper in a seven-game NLCS.

The 89-win Padres and 87-win Phillies are the last two National League teams standing, because of course they are. 

To get to the NLCS, which begins Tuesday in San Diego, the Padres had to beat the best team in Dodgers franchise history after finishing 22 games behind them in the NL West standings, while the Phillies had to beat the 101-win Braves, who had a better team than they did when they won the World Series last year. 

This is quite humbling for those of us who make predictions. Indeed, none of our seven writers picked Philadelphia to advance through the Division Series, while only one tabbed San Diego to beat L.A. (Martell, though this doesn’t get him off the hook for his putrid preseason World Series pick.) That means, together, we went a collective 1-for-14 in the NLDS.

So now, it’s redemption time! Which team will represent the National League in the 2022 World Series? Here are our picks:

Juan Soto has hit 18 home runs and 53 RBIs in 67 career games against the Phillies :: Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports

Tom Verducci

Matchup: Padres vs. Phillies

Prediction: Padres in seven games

MVP: Juan Soto

The Phillies are dangerous. Philadelphia gets to throw Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler four times on full rest, the reward for taking out the Braves quickly. Bryce Harper is hot. And the Phillies’ bullpen is way better than regular season numbers suggest because of how Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are throwing the ball. It’s an evenly matched series with starting pitchers who provide length, big-time stars in the prime of their careers and baseball lifers as managers who won’t be running games by script. The difference? San Diego gets the last game at home—and that energy made a difference in NLDS Games 3 and 4.

Stephanie Apstein

Matchup: Padres vs. Phillies

Prediction: Phillies in six games

MVP: Bryce Harper

The Phillies are chaotic in a way I think might propel them to the World Series.

Emma Baccellieri

Matchup: Padres vs. Phillies

Prediction: Padres in seven games

MVP: Juan Soto (tempted as I am to pick Trent Grisham)

This series is so evenly matched: While both of these teams had bumpy roads to get here, they ended up very statistically similar, with team OPS+ of 107 (Philadelphia) and 105 (San Diego) and ERA+ of 103 (Philadelphia) and 99 (San Diego). It feels close to a coin flip. But I’ll give the slightest of edges here to the Padres, in part because of their bullpen, which has just looked stellar this month.

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Bryce Harper slashed  .435/.480/.957 in six postseason games this season and .263/.351/.596 in 25 career postseason games.  :: Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports

Claire Kuwana

Matchup: Padres vs. Phillies

Prediction: Padres in six games

MVP: Manny Machado

At this point, the Padres have proven that it doesn’t matter who they are playing this postseason—they’re in it to win. After beating some of the best arms in baseball during the first two rounds (deGrom, Scherzer, Kershaw), the San Diego lineup is clicking at the right time to put up just enough offense to get through Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. The Phillies are dangerous with Bryce Harper finally heating back up, but so were the Dodgers. The Padres are on too good of a run to slow down now.

Will Laws

Matchup: Padres vs. Phillies

Prediction: Padres in five games

MVP: Juan Soto

I’ll take San Diego’s three elite starters over Philadelphia’s two, especially since the Padres’ bullpen and defense are both superior to the Phillies’. Lefty hitters Soto, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham, all of whom have provided clutch at-bats in the postseason so far, should once again play a big role in helping San Diego overcome Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to advance to the World Series.

Nola, 29, will play against his 32-year-old brother Austin, the Padres starting catcher, as the sixth set of brothers to face off in a postseason series :: Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports

Matt Martell

Matchup: Padres vs. Phillies

Prediction: Padres in seven games

MVP: Juan Soto

I picked the Padres in the first two rounds, and I’m sticking with them here. They are the more complete team here, with a rotation of three aces, a loaded bullpen and a lineup that is getting production throughout, especially from the 7–8–9 hitters. If this were a five-game series, I would probably take the Phillies, who are playing better than they have all season and have two starters, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, who could be better than San Diego’s one-two punch of Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. But depth matters more in a best-of-seven, and the Padres are deeper.

Nick Selbe

Matchup: Padres vs. Phillies

Prediction: Padres in six games

MVP: Manny Machado

Two of the biggest upsets in playoff history have left us with a juicy NLCS between two teams that took big midseason swings to get where they are today. A pick for the Padres reflects my belief in their pitching staff, particularly the rotation. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have been lights out to this point, but Ranger Suarez and Noah Syndergaard do not inspire much confidence. San Diego similarly has a reliable 1-2 punch in Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish (though the latter has had issues giving up home runs), and Blake Snell is more proven than the Phillies’ other options. The Padres’ bullpen has also been superb, with their top seven relief pitchers combining for 24 2/3 innings this postseason with a 0.73 ERA, 28 strikeouts and just seven walks. Mention the word bullpen around any Phillies fan, though, and watch the stress sweats begin.