The Death of the Do-or-Die Playoff Games

Also in today’s Five-Tool Newsletter, Bryce Harper and the Phillies, the nearly cooked Padres rally goose, the demoralized Yankees and more.

Gerrit Cole and the Yankees are on the brink of elimination :: Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

By the end of tonight, we could have our two World Series teams. But the World Series doesn’t start until Friday, so there’s a very real chance that we will have four consecutive days during the playoffs without any baseball games. (That’s a big bummer to think about). 

For all the excitement of this postseason, all the close games and weird plays and surprising stars and upsets, we have had just two do-or-die games—the same number that we had over the first two days of the playoffs every year between 2012 and ’21 (excluding the ’20 postseason, which featured 16 teams after the pandemic-shortened 60-game season). I can understand why a lot of the teams and many of the players wanted to get rid of the single-elimination wild-card game; they didn’t want a 162-game season to come down to one contest. Yet those games provided baseball with the one thing it seems to lack when compared to other sports: appointment viewing with the highest stakes imaginable to begin the postseason.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t need the instant juice of a wild-card game to get me to watch playoff baseball. I’m sure most of you who subscribe to this newsletter are the same way. But there is something tantalizing about a winner-take-all game that appeals to the non-baseball-sickos out there, the prospective fans that Major League Baseball says it is trying to reach.

Increasing the number of elimination games was one of the reasons MLB wanted to expand the playoffs to the new 12-team format. The thing is, elimination games are only exciting when it feels like the team facing elimination has a real shot at winning and staying alive for another day. For example, this afternoon’s NLCS Game 5 is promising because the first four games of the series have been close, and the Padres have Yu Darvish starting, a fully rested Josh Hader and Robert Suárez, and game-changing hitters Juan Soto and Manny Machado, as well as a strong supporting cast (Josh Bell, Jake Cronenworth, Brandon Drury, etc.). A Padres win over the Phillies in Philly brings the series back to San Diego, which doesn’t necessarily guarantee the Padres the edge, but it does halt Philadelphia’s momentum and gives San Diego a much more manageable goal to rally around: win two games at home. A Padres win over the Phillies in Philly means anything can happen the rest of the way, even if it’d still be unlikely for this series to go the distance.

This is far from the case in tonight’s ALCS Game 4. The Astros have utterly embarrassed the Yankees over the first three games, silencing a New York offense that led the American League in runs during the regular season. Houston’s win at Yankee Stadium last night so demoralized the Yankees that the hometown fans couldn’t even muster a “F— Altuve!” chant when their arch nemesis batted in the ninth inning, and many of the baseball scribes in the pressbox, including our own Stephanie Apstein, wrote the closest thing to a Yankees season obit without risking a “Dewey Defeats Truman” snafu.

This doesn’t mean the new 12-team format is a failure. As I wrote last Monday, it’s way too early to draw any grand conclusions about the latest postseason expansion. The Phillies wouldn’t have made the playoffs if not for the additional wild card in each league, and they are this year’s Team of Destiny. The Padres would’ve risked immediate elimination in the wild-card game against Max Scherzer and the Mets. Yes, the San Diego hitters dismantled the future Hall of Famer when they faced him in Game 1 of the wild-card series, but that’s not exactly a favorable matchup in a single-elimination game.

And even though only two of the series have gone the distance, the games themselves have been close. Of the 32 postseason games played entering today, 23 of them have been decided by three or fewer runs. This doesn’t include last night’s thrilling, chaotic game between San Diego and Philadelphia, because the final score was 10–6. It also doesn’t include this postseason’s two do-or-die games: the Yankees beat the Guardians 5–1 in ALDS Game 5, and the Mets didn’t put up much of a fight (except for Buck Showalter’s request to examine Joe Musgrove’s ears for sticky stuff) in their 6–0 loss to the Padres in Game 3 of the wild-card series.

Another thing to consider: all of my lamenting about the lack of do-or-die games could be for naught if the Yankees somehow remember how to hit and/or the Padres win their next two games. I’ll gladly eat my words here if it means more Game 7s.

But as of right now, it looks like we’ll get, at most, one more do-or-die game. That’s a pretty big bummer, especially if it means we’ll have to go four days without baseball.

Have any questions or comments for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.

1. THE OPENER

Harper has four extra base hits in the NLCS, including a game-tying double in last night’s chaotic 10–6 Game 4 win :: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

“Bryce Harper spent most of his major league career trying to play the role of Bryce Harper, like John Malkovich in Being John Malkovich. As the rare baseball rookie who arrived as a celebrity, he had to live up to expectations and image. He spent his first six years on the clock toward free agency and measured against Mike Trout. And when he signed with the Phillies, a team with six straight losing seasons, he had to be big enough to sell tickets and drag a franchise back to respectability.

“Something remarkable has happened in the past two weeks. It is not only that Harper is slashing .410/.439/.872 in the postseason. It also is that Harper is playing unburdened. The Phillies have become such a collective force of willpower that Harper no longer must play himself in his own movie.”

That’s how Tom Verducci begins his excellent column from last night on Harper, who is one win away from reaching his first World Series.

Bryce Harper Is Keeping His Promise to the Team of Destiny Phillies by Tom Verducci
Just four years into his 13-year contract, he is one win away from bringing a pennant back to Philadelphia.

2. ICYMI

Let’s get you caught up on some of our other recent stories.

The Padres’ Goose Is Almost Cooked as Chaos Strikes the NLCS by Emma Baccellieri
They have thrived on a chaotic, spirited energy this postseason. The Phillies are beating them at their own game.

The Astros Are Showing the Yankees How Far They Have to Go by Stephanie Apstein
New York will have to win four straight to advance to the World Series. That seems like a stretch.

Stop Blaming the Umpires for Everything by Matt Martell
We all spend way too much time and energy dissecting the close calls that umpires make.

3. WORTH NOTING from Stephanie Apstein

Altuve finally picked up his first hit of the postseason in the fifth inning last night when he connected for a double down the right-field line :: John Minchillo/AP

Astros second baseman Jose Altuve’s double in the fifth inning was his first hit of the playoffs, snapping an 0-for-25 streak that was the longest in history to open a postseason. It broke the record set by Dal Maxvill of the 1968 Cardinals, who went 0-for-22. (In those days, the postseason was just the World Series, so even though that went seven games against the Tigers, poor Dal was actually 0-for-October.) Still, Altuve has been so good over his career that the double moved him into fifth place all-time in postseason extra-base hits, with 39, trailing only Derek Jeter (57), Bernie Williams (51), Manny Ramírez (48) and David Ortiz (41).

4. W2W4 from Will Laws

So, with both championship series possibly ending today, who are the ALCS and NLCS MVP favorites at this point?

Light-hitting Astros center fielder Chas McCormick is hilariously the only player with multiple home runs in the ALCS, including one that drew first blood in Houston’s 5–0 win at Yankee Stadium last night. But Alex Bregman’s three-run homer made the difference in Houston’s 3–2 win over New York in Game 2, and that may give him the edge; he leads all players in that series with 0.31 win probability added.

In the NLCS, Philadelphia’s Game 5 starter Zack Wheeler would make a solid case by following up his seven innings of one-hit ball in Game 1 with another dominant outing to close out the series. Failing that, Kyle Schwarber (series-high 1.601 OPS, 0.41 win probability added) and Rhys Hoskins each have three home runs through four games … yet Bryce Harper’s series-high four extra-base hits (three doubles, one HR) probably have him in polo position.

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

Yesterday’s NLCS Game 4 was the first time that both starters were knocked out of a postseason game in the first inning since 1932. And that game actually looked quite a bit similar to the one we saw last night! The Yankees fell behind 4–1 to the Cubs in the first… and then kept hitting, and hitting some more, and ultimately won the game 13–6. (Lou Gehrig was 2-for-4 with a double and Tony Lazzeri homered twice.) For the Yankees, it ended in a World Series win. The Phillies can only hope for the same.

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.