What We’re Hearing About Carlos Rodón at the Winter Meetings

Plus, notes on blocking the bases, the baseballs and other signings from Day 2 in San Diego.

SAN DIEGO — The market for Carlos Rodón could become the next proof of free agency inflation. Rodón is another version of Robbie Ray last year. Both were coming off age-29 platform seasons with nearly identical numbers in innings (Ray had more, 191.1-178), ERA (Ray was slightly lower, 2.84 to 2.88), ERA+ (Edge to Ray, 157-140) and WHIP (Rodón by a smidgen, 1.03-1.04).

Ray won the AL Cy Young Award. Rodón finished sixth in voting for the NL award. Both lefthanders reinvented themselves with mechanical changes. Ray signed with Seattle for $115 million over five years. Rodón is aiming higher, and in this super-charged market and with the Yankees and Dodgers having interest, the question now is how much higher do the numbers go? No free agent pitcher has signed for six years or more since 2019. Rodón and Kodai Senga may get there.

Rodón is a different pitcher than when he fought injuries and mechanics earlier in his career. The same guy who once lived on fastballs and sliders down established himself in 2022 as a premier high-fastball monster. Rodón threw more high fastballs than anybody in baseball. He averaged 95.5 mph on his heater with a spin rate of 2,349 while keeping it an average of 3.05 feet off the ground. Here are the most extreme high-fastball pitchers, based on average height with at least 1,000 heaters: Cristian Javier (3.09), Rodón (3.05) and Justin Verlander (3.03). To give Rodón six years or more is to believe that transformation is sustainable.

Carlos Rodón looks set to cash in after betting on himself by signing a one-year deal last offseason :: Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports

• The Cubs made a smart move by taking a one-year chance on Cody Bellinger, who is only 27. They plan to play him in center field. As bad as he was last season, Bellinger was one of only three players last season to hit 19 homers and steal 14 bases while playing center field. The others were Rookie of the Year Award winners Julio Rodríguez of Seattle and Michael Harris of Atlanta. The last time a Cubs center fielder (minimum 100 games) hit 20 home runs? Corey Patterson in 2004. Only three Cubs center fielders have hit 25 homers: Hack Wilson (four times), Andy Pafko and Rick Monday, the last to do it in 1973. The sample size is small (nine games) but Bellinger likes hitting at Wrigley Field: .321/.429/.536. 

• The market for Brandon Nimmo is strong, though he is a much better fit in left field (with the Yankees, for instance) than center field (Blue Jays, Giants and Rockies). Nimmo played the deepest center field in baseball last year to pump up his defensive metrics. He moved seven feet deeper in center field—and 17 feet deeper than in 2019. Nimmo played 14 feet deeper than Bellinger, who played the shallowest center field.

• Desperate for power, the Guardians made a smart buy on the free agent market with Josh Bell. But you prepare for inconsistency with Bell. Over the past three full seasons, the difference between halves of his seasons in batting average have been 117 points, 32 points and 69 points. 

• Major League Baseball is in talks with the players association about closing a loophole in playing rules: why are infielders still allowed to block bases when the catcher is not permitted to block home plate? The two sides are exploring whether to prevent the practice of infielders dropping to a knee to take away the base from the sliding runner, a tactic that can present danger, especially to runners sliding hands-first. They also are taking another crack at clarifying the running lane rule to first base, a regular source of controversy. They are not considering its elimination.

• MLB also is continuing to tighten the protocols of rubbing baseballs with mud before games to reduce the slickness of the leather. The changes began midway through last season and resulted in more uniform condition of the baseballs. Home team employees rub the baseballs. Some did so as early as 24 hours before the game and stored them in large bags. Pitchers found that the baseballs used late in games—the ones from the bottom of the bag—often were the slickest because the mud had dried and dusty residue from other baseballs or the bag itself settled on them.

MLB last year recorded video of how each home employee rubbed the baseballs. It found many techniques and results. MLB found the one technique it believes works best and set that as the new template. The league also limited the process to three hours before the game, limited the baseballs stored in each bag to eight dozen and ordered the bags to be cleaned regularly—which limits the incidental dried, dusty residue that was landing on baseballs. MLB also distributed photographs of three rubbed baseballs in varying colors—lightly rubbed, medium and darker—and established the preferred template as more toward the darker version. Baseball continues to experiment with tackier leather and a spray-on substance, but neither remedy is close to being ready for MLB use.

• The Yankees continue to double down on groundball relievers, bringing back Tommy Kahnle (68% grounders in his small sample season with the Dodgers). But the risk with Kahnle always is health. Over eight seasons he’s averaged just 36 innings, including just 13 2/3 in the past three years. 

• The Rangers have done an impressive job building a veteran staff that allows their core of young pitchers not to be forced into the big leagues before they are ready. In Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi and Andrew Heaney, they have five pitchers who have thrown at least 170 innings in a season.

• The catching market is heating up. The Cardinals like Sean Murphy while Oakland would want Alec Burleson in a return package. The Rangers have asked about James McCann, who caught new Ranger Jacob deGrom in New York as well as Chris Bassitt, the free agent righthander who was on their radar before getting Andrew Heaney.