What We’re Hearing About the Mets, Aaron Judge and the Red Sox

The winter meetings reached a new level of activity on Day 3. The effects will be wide-reaching on what comes next.

SAN DIEGO — Age has become a big issue with the Mets, but not money. They enter 2023 with four starting pitchers age 34 and older. No team has ever had four starters that old make 25 starts. Lower the bar to 20 starts each and only four teams have such a quartet: the 1945 Reds (61–93), 1998 Mariners (76–85), the 2000 Braves (95–67) and the 2006 Mets (97–65). 

The Mets right now have 34-year-old Starling Marte in center field. Nobody that old has played 120 games in center field in a decade—since Andres Torres of the Mets in 2012, with an OPS+ of 86. No one that old has played center field that regularly and hit better than league average since 2009 (Mike Cameron of Milwaukee). 

At this rate any player the Mets sign while over the highest luxury tax tier will cost them a tax of 90 cents on the dollar, so Brandon Nimmo at $20 million a year (and that may be conservative) becomes a $38 million player. Ouch.

Age aside, the signing of Jose Quintana, 34, is a bet that his breakthrough last season is sustainable. Changing his approach, Quintana worked up in the strike zone more than ever. He threw more elevated four-seamers than any lefty in baseball except for Carlos Rodón. Still, the veritable “trade” of two years of Quintana starting at age 34 over four years of Taijuan Walker at age 30 looks like a downgrade in reliability.

Justin Verlander pitched in a six-man rotation last season coming off Tommy John surgery. Max Scherzer pitched on the fifth day only nine times last year and has thrown 110 pitches once in the past two years. Carlos Carrasco and Quintana averaged slightly more than five innings per start. The Mets may be planning to add another starting pitcher and deploy a six-man rotation. Their path to winning the pennant is built on getting Scherzer and Verlander to October healthy and with fresh arms. That means being careful with their workload through the 162-game schedule.

Max Scherzer has a reputation for being a workhorse, but the 38-year-old pitched the fewest innings he ever has in a full season last year / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

• How many good years can the Yankees expect out of the next nine seasons from Aaron Judge? History suggests four or five. Let’s define a productive season as any qualified season with an OPS+ greater than 100. Judge had the greatest age-30 season ever, based on OPS+. Among the next six players since 1920 to post the best age-30 season—Jason Giambi, Dick Allen, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams and Miguel Cabrera—they averaged 4.2 productive seasons after age 30. All clubs are hoping advances in technology and sports performance will make the historical aging curve obsolete.

Since 2010, Judge is the 50th free agent to sign a contract worth at least $100 million. He is only the fifth of those 50 who did not switch teams. Stephen Strasburg, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Diaz are the others. Still to be determined at that elite level: Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Rodón, Dansby Swanson and Nimmo.

• What are the Red Sox doing? The gave Kenley Jansen a two-year guarantee coming off a one-year deal with the Braves. Jansen is a 35-year-old closer who allowed the highest contact rate of his career and who has the worst profile of a pitcher under the new rules next season. He is the slowest working pitcher in baseball with runners on, a 13-year veteran set in his ways who is going to be rushed by the pitch timer next season. And he is terrible at holding runners (one career pickoff; extremely slow to the plate) at a time when stolen bases will become easier and more frequent because of the bigger bases and limits on pickoffs. Since 2017, including the postseason, baserunners against Jansen are 62 out of 64 on steal attempts. That makes for a nervous ninth inning, knowing a leadoff hit or walk means an extra base.

• Bogaerts had his best defensive year last season in terms of metrics, but keep in mind the new rule that infielders no longer can be positioned on the grass behind the arc of the infield dirt. Bogaerts played two feet deeper at short this season than he did in 2021 and four feet deeper than in 2020. He often started on the grass. At an average depth of 151 feet, Bogaerts played five feet deeper than the average MLB shortstop. As teams use advanced hitting and fielding metrics to pay players, the players have learned how to boost their defensive metrics and WAR.

• When I asked Giants manager Gabe Kapler about how his club would adapt to the new rules of defensive positioning, including no shifts, he said the answer is to put a bigger emphasis on athleticism, such as improving players’ first-step quickness. San Francisco had the worst defense at second base last season, with Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores getting most of the reps.

• The Dodgers are not likely to start next season with Gavin Lux at shortstop but seem willing to play the long game as they wait for a resolution of their Trevor Bauer financial commitment. Swanson looks like their best option.

• Phillies manager Rob Thomson is planning to bat Trea Turner leadoff, moving Kyle Schwarber down to second or third while Bryce Harper is out for the first half due to Tommy John surgery. Turner has an .841 career OPS hitting leadoff, 12th best all time (min. 450 games). Six of those top 12 are active, underscoring how analytics have encouraged getting the best hitters to the plate more often, as well as the increase in power in the game. They are 1. Mookie Betts (.903). 3. Charlie Blackmon (.872). 4. Matt Carpenter and George Springer (.845). 8. Jose Altuve (.850). 12. Turner (.841). Rickey Henderson is 16th at .822.

• Andrew Painter of Philadelphia and Grayson Rodriguez of Baltimore, two of the top pitching prospects in baseball, both will get a chance in spring training to win a spot in their respective Opening Day rotations, according to their managers.