What We’re Hearing After the Carlos Correa Signing

Here’s what his contract with San Francisco could mean for Dansby Swanson’s market and the rest of MLB free agency.

The Giants giving 13 years to Carlos Correa continues a pattern of teams adding guaranteed years as part of the cost of acquiring a player. It follows Trea Turner (11 years from the Phillies), Xander Bogaerts (11 years from the Padres), Aaron Judge (nine years to remain a Yankee) and even Jacob deGrom (five years from the Rangers). All are being paid through at least age 39. It’s less of an industry-wide trend and more of a niche market among a handful of owners who represent what the players sought during the lockout: owners as motivated to win as the players themselves.

Correa hit .291 with 22 home runs and was worth 5.4 WAR in 136 games last season with the Twins :: Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

The Giants were desperate for a star, and once they failed on Judge, Correa was destined for San Francisco. Agent Scott Boras worked his magic again, getting the fourth-richest free-agent contract ($350 million) after a platform season that was worse than the previous one in which Correa had to take a pillow contract from Minnesota.

The Giants are down almost a million fans from 2016. The Padres and Rangers have never won a World Series. Phillies owner John Middleton is building on the Bryce Harper contract (13 years) and the unexpected World Series run last season. The biggest market driver is Steve Cohen, the Mets owner and fan who hasn’t seen his team win the World Series in 36 years. He will pump more into payroll than the bottom four teams put together.

Yes, some of this is accounting tricks. Long contracts reduce the average annual value calculation as it relates to competitive balance tax exposure. But you still wind up with potentially dead money on the back end. Owners this winter have been willing to pay that cost to get what they want.

Nobody in baseball woke up after the CBA was signed and decided, “Let’s go back to super-long-term contracts.” Says one executive, “We got away from them for a reason: They’re stupid.” But individual owners have decided they need stars to win the World Series and are throwing efficiency aside. As a fan, you must applaud such irrational exuberance. They can’t all win, but they can try.

• The flow of talent is overwhelmingly in one direction. Nine of the 11 top free agents signed with NL teams. Of the 11 richest free agent contracts this winter, only one player moved from the National League to the American League: deGrom.

• Over the past four free-agent markets, 25 players have signed contracts worth $100 million or more. Twenty-three of the 25 biggest free agents signed with East or West teams. The two Central exceptions: Javy Báez (Detroit) and Correa (Minnesota).

• Correa, Turner and Bogaerts will not be playing shortstop for the length of their contracts, but each is being paid like an elite shortstop for seven seasons from age 34 on. Players age off shortstop faster than at any other position. Over the past six years, only once has a 34+ shortstop played 120 games at the position: Brandon Crawford in 2021. The last one before him was Alexei Ramírez in ’16. And that’s before the ban on shifts, which emphasizes more range than ever.

Correa can become an elite third baseman. Turner can become a Robin Yount–type outfielder. Bogaerts has the least positional flexibility but seems the first to move off shortstop. If Manny Machado opts out of his contract after next season, Bogaerts likely slides to third, especially because Ha-Seong Kim is the superior shortstop. One problem: Bogaerts, according to one source, told teams he prefers second base to third base. “It was the worst deal and it’s not even close,” one executive says, pointing out the deal is so outsized it gets the Red Sox off the hook after Boston offered $160 million over six years.

Swanson is the best defender of this offseason’s big four shortstops, even though he has the lowest offensive ceiling :: Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports

• Dansby Swanson played it right by playing it slow, letting the top of the shortstop market play out and let the losers of the Correa/Turner/Bogaerts bidding fight it out for the best available player at the position. But here’s the problem: The remaining field does not have any of those “irrational exuberance” owners to drive the bidding. His best options seem to be the Twins, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers—three Central teams and a Dodgers team that is bent on folding young players into the mix and for one year getting off that “build a superteam” mindset. Getting knocked out in one postseason series after 111 wins has caused reevaluation in Los Angeles.

That said, Swanson is the best pure shortstop of the field. His value is not as a star with franchise value over 11 to 13 years, but as a shortstop who can help you win before he ages off the position. That probably means a high average annual value without the extravagant years.

• Carlos Rodón is a test of the Yankees’ will. They are a playoff team without him, but New York probably needs the swing-and-miss lefthander to get through Houston. And with Cohen spoiling New York fans when it comes to stepping up, the Yankees are under some market pressure.

Rodón is this year’s version of Robbie Ray (5 years, $115M from Seattle last year) in terms of age and stuff. But in this market, he probably will get six or seven years. The idea of paying Rodón, Judge, Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton $126 million in 2027 when they are 34, 35, 36 and 37, respectively, is nobody’s idea of efficiency, but it may be the cost for the Yankees to try and get through the Astros in the next couple of years.