Scott Rolen Is on Pace to Make Hall of Fame History

His Cooperstown case comes down to the subtle brilliance with which he played the game.

Rolen was a superb baserunner to go along with his elite fielding and solid hitting. Taken together, he belongs in the Hall of Fame :: Dilip Vishwanat/USA TODAY Sports

If Scott Rolen is headed to the Hall of Fame, as his meteoric rise in balloting suggests, his candidacy will be unlike anything seen in the 56 years under current voting rules for the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. It is a reflection of how he played the game: with subtle brilliance.

Rolen received only 10% support in the first year on the ballot. It has been a fast rise since: 17%, 35%, 53% and 63% last year, leaving him as the player on this ballot most likely to crack the 75% threshold needed for election. The lowest first-year percentage by a candidate eventually elected by the writers under current voting rules is 17% by Duke Snider in 1980. It took him 11 tries to get elected. (The current maximum years on the ballot is 10.)

Since 1967, there have been 670 players to get less than 15% support in their first year on the ballot. None have been elected by the writers. Why is Rolen the guy who can break this 0-for-670, 56-year streak? Modern metrics have taken a crack at measuring subtle skills in which Rolen flourished: defense and baserunning.

Begin with his offense. Injuries (broken bones, a bad back, a bad shoulder, concussions, etc.) limited Rolen to 8,518 plate appearances. Baseball writers prefer to see more volume. They have elected only two players who debuted after 1947 with fewer than 9,000 plate appearances: Kirby Puckett and Larry Walker.

Rolen’s slash line (.281/.364/.490) resembles that of Aramis Ramírez (.283/.341/.492). Compared to other third basemen (at least 75% of their games at the position), his traditional offensive numbers are very good but not great:

Rolen Rank Among Third Basemen

Rolen’s argument does not rest with longevity. He better have a high peak. And he does:

Most Qualified Seasons, OPS+ 125 or Greater, Third Basemen

That’s rare company. Not even Chipper Jones and Adrián Beltré, who goes in next year, make this list. Only four third basemen posted more qualified seasons with an OPS+ of 125 or greater. Rolen happened to do so for three different teams (Phillies, Cardinals, Reds), so his peak is not as memorable.

The bigger reasons why Rolen is on the Cooperstown highway are his defense and baserunning. Rolen was committed to playing basketball at Georgia before he signed with the Phillies as a second-round pick in 1993. His combination of size (6'4", 245 pounds), strength and athleticism made him an outlier. He won eight Gold Gloves. He is one of only five third basemen to hit 300 homers and steal 100 bases. The others are Schmidt, Beltré, Jones and Brett.

If you appreciate how the game is played, and not just batting stats, Rolen played it like a Hall of Famer. The subtle beauty was in how he made plays on the run at third base or the perfect cut around a base as he went first to third or second to home.

Remember that comparison to Ramírez? Take another look, this time with baserunning and defense:

The average major league player last year scored 30% of the time he reached base and took the extra base 41% of the time. Rolen was a superb baserunner, especially considering his position. Only three Hall of Fame third basemen took the extra base at a higher clip than Rolen: Pie Traynor (60%), Brett (54%) and Freddie Lindstrom (54%). Even with his injuries, he ranks fourth at the position in doubles (517).

Folding in his outstanding defense, Rolen’s WAR is the eighth-best among third basemen. All seven in front of him are in the Hall or will be (Beltré). Only three third basemen posted more 4-WAR seasons than Rolen did:

Most Seasons, 4+ WAR, Third Basemen

Injuries limited Rolen to only three qualified seasons in his 30s. He received MVP votes only four times, finishing in the top 10 only once. He never led the league in an offensive category. He hit .220 in 39 postseason games. His first-year support of 10% in 2018 is a function of not having any superlative seasons or statistics, as well as a crowded ballot that chewed up votes (nine players received more than 50%).

But as the ballot has thinned and as writers consider his baserunning and defense, Rolen has been climbing to Cooperstown. At this rate, Rolen will replace the Duke of Flatbush at the top of this list:

Lowest First-Year Pct. of Those Elected by BBWAA (since 1967):