Why Aaron Judge’s Encore Season Could Be Even Better Than His Breakout

History suggests another banner year is ahead for the star Yankee.

What can Aaron Judge do for an encore? History suggests he will put together another elite season, but one that doesn’t quite measure up to his 2022 breakout—unless he is another Willie McCovey and is about to get even better.

Last season Judge posted the greatest age-30 season ever, as measured by OPS+. It was far and away his biggest season. Almost without exception, such huge breakout hitters backslide a bit the next year.

Here are the 10 highest age-30 OPS+ seasons for those who reached a career high that year—and what happened to their OPS+ in their encore season after the breakout.

Highest OPS+ As Career High at Age 30 (Since 1920; Live Ball Era)

Player	Age 30	Prev. High	Diff.	OPS+ Encore Year
Aaron Judge	211	171	+40	?
Jason Giambi	199	187	+12	-27
Dick Allen	199	181	+18	-23
Frank Robinson	198	173	+25	-11
Miguel Cabrera	190	179	+11	-40
Freddie Freeman	187	157	+30	-51
José Bautista	182	164	+18	-44*
Larry Walker	178	151	+27	-20
Hack Wilson	177	158	+19	-65*
Willie McCovey	174	164	+10	+35

Here’s what stands out from that list. 

1. Compared to other age-30 breakout seasons, Judge’s breakout was significantly bigger than anything he had done before.
2. Every other age-30 breakout season was followed by another big but lesser season, except for the one by McCovey.

In 1968, the San Francisco first baseman broke out when he led the league in homers (36), RBIs (105) and slugging (.545). The next season baseball lowered the mound and redefined the strike zone to inject more offense into the game. Willie Mac defended his titles with even better numbers in homers (45), RBIs (126) and slugging (.656)—all career highs. He was named MVP.

The rule changes worked. Runs shot up 19% in 1969, and batting average improved by 11 points. Even in that more hitter-friendly environment, McCovey’s OPS+ surged from 174 to 209. He came back with a 182 OPS+ the next year. The three best seasons of the Hall of Famer’s career were at ages 31, 30 and 32.

For a more recent example, consider Jim Thome. He posted a career-best 170 OPS+ at age 30 for Cleveland in 2001, including 49 home runs. His encore season was even better: a 197 OPS+ and 52 home runs. It was the best season of his career.

Like McCovey in 1969, and with the ban on shifts this year, Judge also will be playing in a more hitter-friendly environment than he did last year. There was nothing flukish about Judge’s 2022 season. He hit the ball about as hard last year (95.9 mph) as he has throughout his career (95.4). His batting average on balls in play (.340) was lower than in three other of his seasons.

The reason Judge broke out so big and set the AL home run record was a specific change to his approach. Judge pushed his hands away from his body at setup, reduced the rotation of his shoulders in the loading phase and closed the biggest hole in his game: hard fastballs riding into his hands. He was able to hit the ball out front better. Judge became a pull monster like never before. That’s it. Full stop.

Here are Judge’s yearly hits to the pull side in his career, beginning with 2017: 68, 46, 37, 15, 59, 92. Ninety-two! Only José Ramírez, Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner had more hits to the pull side than Judge.

So when you compare Judge’s 2022 season to any other season of his, don’t. He is a different hitter. And there is every reason to believe he will keep the same approach this year. As Yankees manager Aaron Boone said, how the encore season plays out for Judge is more about health than anything else. Don’t give me “pressure” or “expectations” or any other bleacher psychology gobbledygook to guess what happens next for him.

Keep this in mind, too: No one in the company he keeps among the biggest age-30 breakouts took a significant fall the next season. The “worst” encore-qualified season was a 136 OPS+ posted by Freddie Freeman in 2021, which is still 36% better than the league average when adjusted for league and park factors. And remember, Freeman posted his age-30 breakout in a season shortened to 60 games by COVID-19. And in his encore season, Freeman still was an All-Star, won a Silver Slugger and finished ninth in MVP voting.

If that’s the floor, Judge still will have a monster season. It would be surprising, given the level of his breakout and his new approach, if Judge was not at least an MVP finalist. And if he follows the path of McCovey, he might even be better in his encore.

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