MLB’s Youngest, Fastest Teams Are Flourishing Under the New Rules

The Diamondbacks’ comeback win vs. the Padres showed that speed may be a coveted resource in baseball’s new era.

The Diamondbacks ran the Padres off the field Tuesday, and it was beautiful.

Arizona won a nine-inning baseball game in a manner we had not seen in five years: with five stolen bases and two sacrifice flies. The 2018 Rays were the last team to do it.

The D-Backs came back from a 5–1 deficit on the road Tuesday to win 8–6 without hitting the ball out of the ballpark.

Their winning rally in the eighth inning went like this: single, stolen base, groundout to advance the runner, safety squeeze, stolen base, single, throwing error on pickoff attempt, walk, single, sac fly, double steal, including steal of home. Four runs, four steals, three singles and two productive outs. Four runs with no extra-base hits has not looked this exciting in years. The half inning was 21 minutes of action and bodies in motion.

Diamondbacks utility player Josh Rojas stole home as a part of Arizona’s frenetic baserunning display :: Gregory Bull/AP

Young, athletic teams are flourishing under MLB’s new rules. The Orioles, Rays and Guardians—the three youngest teams in baseball—are off to a combined 12–4 start while stealing 22 bases in 23 tries. Arizona, the 10th-youngest team, has nine steals in 10 tries.

The limit on pickoffs and bigger bases are designed to encourage stolen bases, and the plan is working. Moreover, pitchers for years worried little about defending the running game as baseball became a more static, risk-averse game of probabilities. Suddenly the same pitchers must defend stolen bases, and they are getting exposed. The stolen base success rate is a whopping 84%.

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Padres relievers Luis García and Brent Honeywell Jr. looked overwhelmed as the Diamondbacks kept taking off Tuesday. García was so lost he made his throwing error while making an unnecessary pickoff throw with Jose Herrera, a 217-pound catcher who had no stolen bases in the minors and majors last year, at first base.

The running game defense issue is especially acute in the later innings. For years teams built bullpens with lumbering, hard-throwing relievers who took a long time between pitches and a long time in their deliveries to max out on velocity. Those guys are getting exposed by the timer and the stolen base environment. Stolen base attempts after the sixth inning are up 20% from last year and are 90% successful (38 of 42), up from 80%.

The Orioles stole 11 bases without being caught in their first five games. We’ve never seen baseball like this in a quarter of a century.

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Most stolen bases without being caught stealing, first five games

1. 1976 Reds: 15
2. 1987 Cubs: 12
3. 2023 Orioles: 11

Meanwhile, older pitchers are having a tough time. It’s way too early to think this is a trend, but the first week of Ready Baseball was rough on the guys who never pitched with a timer in the minors. Pitchers age 36 and over last year posted a 3.60 ERA—better than pitchers in their 20s and better than those in their early 30s. After one week under the clock this year? Their ERA is 5.12, worse than those in their 20s and early 30s. Again, you should not interpret that as a trend, but rather as something to monitor, as pitchers have less time to recover between pitches and innings.

For years front-office analytic groups searched for market inefficiencies to exploit. What if under the new rules those market inefficiencies are speed, athleticism and youth? If the eighth inning by Arizona in San Diego on Tuesday is any indication, we are in for an entertaining season.