Justin Verlander Gives Astros Exactly What They Need After Short Mets Stint

The Mets grabbed some value for the 40-year-old ace, but Houston’s newfound pitching depth makes another deep playoff run possible.

Well, that was quick: Justin Verlander’s time with the Mets is over.

The veteran has been traded to the Astros, for whom he pitched from 2017 to ’22, on a deadline day deal. Amid a disappointing season, Mets brass began dismantling the most expensive roster in baseball history last week, selling off Verlander’s fellow pitchers Max Scherzer and David Robertson, along with outfielder Mark Canha. They’ve now wrapped up by dealing their biggest trade chip in Verlander. And they did their best to make it worth their while. The Astros are sending the Mets two of their best prospects, Double A center fielder Drew Gilbert and High A outfielder Ryan Clifford, to close the deal.

Verlander is under contract for 2024 with a vesting player option for ’25.

Verlander returns to Houston after starting just 16 games with the Mets :: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

For Houston, this means bringing back a familiar face at a crucial time. The Astros have spent all season chasing down the Rangers in the AL West. They’ve gotten close—Houston entered Tuesday just half a game back of Texas—but have not held first place for so much as a day this season. It’s been a tough spot for the defending champions. And their biggest need has been starting pitching depth. They’ve lost two starters, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., to season-ending surgeries. A third, José Urquidy, has missed months with a shoulder injury. Their rotation has performed well despite those losses: The Astros’ 3.81 starters’ ERA is among the lowest in baseball. But they lacked the requisite depth for a playoff run. Even with Urquidy scheduled to return soon, Houston’s rotation needed an upgrade to improve its chances down the stretch.

Verlander provides that. Is he the same pitcher that he was when he left Houston eight months ago? It’s hard to say. Verlander had a truly spectacular 2022 with the Astros: He won the Cy Young with a 1.75 ERA and league-leading 0.83 WHIP. That is … not the kind of performance he showed in ’23 with the Mets. The righthander missed all of April with a shoulder strain and got off to a slow start in May. But he’s been trending better ever since. In the weeks since the All-Star break, in fact, Verlander has been fantastic. He has a 1.85 ERA in his four starts since the break—compared to 3.60 in the 12 before it. (Compare a 69% hard-hit rate on his fastball through June with 37% in July.) In other words, if this season as a whole has felt like a step back for Verlander, the past month sure hasn’t. There’s a lot to like about his recent performance. And returning to an organization where he had such success can’t hurt.

The Astros get the kind of big, splashy move they need to potentially overtake the Rangers, who’ve been very active this deadline themselves. And the Mets get rewarded for their conviction here. This season (obviously!) wasn’t going how they expected it to. Yet by taking action to pivot quickly, they’ve landed some high-quality prospects to restock their farm system in a major way. Is this the outcome the Mets wanted? Of course not. But if they were going to be a losing team at the trade deadline … it’s hard to imagine them spinning it any better than this.