Making Sense of a Wild MLB Manager Carousel

The baseball offseason has arrived, and, before any huge contracts get handed out to big-name free agents, plenty of clubs are deciding who will lead them in the dugout going forward.

The general managers’ meetings begin Tuesday, and with them the unofficial start of the offseason, but front offices have wasted no time this season restructuring their dugout leadership.

Two weeks ago the Giants fired Gabe Kapler and hired Bob Melvin away from the Padres to replace him; the managerial carousel has only spun faster since then. On Monday the Guardians announced they had hired recently retired catcher Stephen Vogt to replace the retiring Terry Francona, the Mets hired Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza to replace the fired Buck Showalter and—in the biggest shock of all—the Cubs signed Brewers manager Craig Counsell to a five-year, $40 million deal to replace David Ross, whose job was thought to be safe.

Stephanie Apstein and Emma Baccellieri weigh in on the moves.

What should we expect from Carlos Mendoza?

Apstein: This could be the best job in the sport, given the talent already on the roster and owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend to bolster it further. It’s interesting that new president of baseball operations David Stearns ended up with a lower-profile hiring than Counsell would have been or than Showalter was. But Mendoza has spent a decade and a half with the Yankees in various roles, including managing in the low minors, and presumably has a good understanding of how the politics of a major market work. There are going to be a lot of changes coming for the Mets this year as they transition to fit Stearns’s vision; Mendoza’s success will likely hinge on how smooth he can make that process.

Baccellieri: With a first-time manager, it’s always hard to say, exactly. But the Mets’ decision here signals a departure from their recent hires. There is nothing flashy about the choice of Mendoza: While he garnered respect over 15 years with the Yankees, working his way up from the low minors to big league bench coach, he’s not a veteran leader like Showalter or a popular former player like Carlos Beltrán or a vaunted pitching coach like Mickey Callaway. (It’s worth noting that none of those managers lasted more than two seasons in Queens.) If this is a time of transition for the Mets—managing high expectations as they reconfigure the front office—they’re choosing to steer into it with a lower-profile leader in the dugout.

Counsell (right) was long seen as a popular free-agent manager ahead of the offseason :: Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK

What made Craig Counsell such a popular candidate?

Baccellieri: It’s tricky to figure just how much of a team’s fortunes can be attributed to the manager, but even if Counsell wasn’t directly responsible for the Brewers’ success since 2015, it’s hard to argue he didn’t play a key role in it. His nine seasons made him the longest-tenured skipper in Brewers history. While overseeing a roster with limited payroll, he made trips to the playoffs in five of the last six years, developing a reputation as a smart, savvy manager. Counsell is statistically attuned without giving the sense he lives and dies by a spreadsheet; he’s well-liked by his players while still coming across as a strong leader. He’s experienced while still potentially having plenty of time in the game ahead of him. (Counsell is 53.) There aren’t many managers available with his record of success and respect across the game. He likely could have had his pick of jobs in any offseason—and this year especially, with few similarly qualified competitors.

Apstein: The most important part of a skipper’s job these days is personality management, and, by all accounts, Counsell excels there. He was handed at least two fraught situations—last year, the Brewers traded closer Josh Hader to the Padres in a move that roiled the clubhouse, and this spring, ace Corbin Burnes griped about an arbitration hearing that he felt became unnecessarily contentious—and guided both teams to winning seasons. And those are just the ones that became public. He’s a good in-game manager, too, but that skill can be taught; it’s harder to find someone naturally talented at handling the chaos inherent in a 162-game season.

What surprised you most about these moves?

Apstein: It’s been a while since we saw someone straight-up poach an occupied job. The last example that comes to mind was with the Cubs, as well, when Joe Maddon opted out of his deal with the Rays in 2014 and Chicago shoved out incumbent Rick Renteria with a year left on his contract. (The Cubs, of course, won the World Series two years later, with Maddon at the helm, but it’s possible Renteria could have achieved the same result.) Will this be the process going forward? I suspect there are a lot of managers looking over their shoulders right now.

Baccellieri: I was surprised Counsell didn’t reunite with Stearns in Queens and, more broadly, that the Mets went with a first-time manager at all. But I have to agree with Stephanie: The biggest shock here was seeing Counsell go to an occupied gig. The Cubs didn’t even have time to get out separate press releases! (Firing Ross was the headline; Counsell’s hire was inserted a few paragraphs down.) That’s a marked difference from what we’ve seen on the managerial carousel lately.

The Cubs officially announce the firing of David Ross and the hiring of Craig Counsell pic.twitter.com/YfoH2egQ12

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 6, 2023

Counsell, of course, was an especially popular candidate this winter. He was able to command the highest salary in the game by a large margin. I don’t think we’ll see too much of this kind of sneak-attack maneuvering in the near future. But the move seems shocking either way—both for its speed and its price tag.