For the Yankees, Everything Hinges on Gerrit Cole's Elbow

Cole was transferred to the 60-day injured list on Opening Day.

Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees / New York Yankees/GettyImages

The New York Yankees transferred Gerrit Cole to the 60-day injured list hours before first pitch on Opening Day. The 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner is still weeks away from starting a throwing program as he attempts to work though an elbow injury. The Yankees' hopes in 2024 rest squarely on Cole returning healthy.

New York's ace has avoided Tommy John surgery thus far, and the hope is rest and rehab will be all that's necessary. Cole says he's dealing with nerve inflammation and edema, and season-ending surgery isn't in the cards. Yet. After being moved to the 60-day IL, the earliest he could return is May, thought it's likely to take far longer for him to build back up to actually seeing major league action.

The Yankees need Cole badly. Nestor Cortes is the team's Opening Day starter, with Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt expected to follow. Given Rodon's struggles to stay healthy and the lack of depth in the organization following the Juan Soto trade, New York is walking a tightrope without Cole. Not to mention, they're missing one of the best pitchers in baseball while he's sidelined.

In 33 starts last season, Cole went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and 222 strikeouts in 209 innings. It was the best season in an already great career. He earned every penny of his $36 million salary. The six-time All-Star is at his peak and now he's set to miss several months of an important season for the Yankees.

The Baltimore Orioles won the AL East last season and look even better heading into this season. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays always find a way to compete and the Toronto Blue Jays are still young and hungry. The Yankees and Boston Red Sox have been passed up in the division they've dominated for decades. That shift certainly had a hand in New York's decision to pull off the Soto blockbuster. But Cole missing time was never part of the plan for a return to the top of the American League.

Cole has been remarkable durable throughout his career. Other than the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he has made 30 or more starts in six consecutive seasons. His ability to be dominant and stay healthy is why the Yankees handing him a nine-year, $324 million contract actually made sense. The downside risk is always there, and New York is dealing with that now.

The Yankees planned a return to the top of the AL East this year. For that to happen, they need Cole back healthy. The season hinges on his healthy return.

Ryan Phillips is a senior writer at The Big Lead.