Aaron Judge Is Somehow Better Than He Has Ever Been

The Yankees slugger has virtually no weakness at the plate, and he appears to only be improving.

Judge has taken his plate discipline and production level to new heights this season. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Aaron Judge has become too good for MLB. That was the interpretation of how Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider treated the New York Yankees slugger over the weekend.

On Saturday, Schneider became the first manager in 52 years to intentionally walk a hitter with the bases empty as early as the second inning. The next day he became the first manager in 25 years to intentionally walk a Yankees hitter three times. He did so once with a runner at first and once with the bases empty again.

Judge is better than he has ever been, an astounding reality for someone who two years ago hit an AL record 62 home runs and behind him this season has a collection of cleanup hitters batting .217, the worst in Yankees history. His batting average (.322), OBP (.456), slugging (.701) and OPS+ (219) are all career highs.

Over his last 18 games, Judge has been on base 54 times: 27 times by walks, 25 by hits and twice by being hit by pitches. The slash line in this run: .424/.614/.915. Schneider had clearly seen enough.

“I honestly didn’t feel like seeing him swing,” the Toronto manager said after the game Saturday. “We talk about being really careful with him, and that’s what can lead to mistakes when you’re trying to be really fine. He’s in a different category than anyone else in the league.”

Judge is so good that his fans rarely get to see him swing the bat. Over the weekend in the Toronto series, 129,338 fans paid their way into Yankee Stadium for three games. They got to see Judge take only 16 swings in the 15 times he came to the plate. Those 16 swings still produced five hits in eight at bats, including two home runs.

The Captain Connects 💪#AllRise pic.twitter.com/864Hq3M6YT

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) August 3, 2024

Back in 1972, Angels manager Del Rice walked Twins catcher Glenn Borgmann with two outs and the bases empty in the second inning. But the move was made not out of fear of Borgmann, a rookie hitting .211, but because the pitcher was due up behind him in the last season before the DH rule. Rice’s pitcher, Rudy May, struck out 16 batters that day, tying a franchise record.

The Judge intentional walk Saturday has no modern comp. Not even Barry Bonds received such respect. On Sunday, Schneider intentionally walked Judge three straight times: once with a runner on first, once with the bases empty again and once with runners on second and third. After the game, Yankees outfielder Juan Soto complained “it just makes me really mad” that teams no longer challenge Judge, though he added that he respected they must do what they must to try to win the game.

Get used to it. Judge is the most feared hitter in baseball since Bonds. Managers will not risk pitching to Judge in meaningful spots. Pitchers no longer have holes to attack in his swing. (Hard two-seamers in and off-speed pitches below the zone used to be areas of vulnerability for Judge, but he has closed those holes.) And Judge, like Bonds, after watching pitchers pitch around him time after time, will hammer mistakes in the rare instances when he gets to swing the bat.

Why has Judge gone to a higher level this year? Here are some reasons and appreciations.

Judge is once again running away with the home run crown. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Judge’s swing-to-damage rate is unrivaled

Judge hits a home run every 20.5 swings. That’s 26% more often than any of the other leading home run hitters:

	Home Runs	Swings	Swings per HR
Aaron Judge, Yankees	41	839	20.5
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers	34	933	27.4
Marcell Ozuna, Braves	32	930	29.1
Anthony Santander, Orioles	32	936	29.3
Jose Ramirez, Guardians	29	920	31.7
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles	29	891	30.7

Judge is seeing fewer pitches to hit

Judge’s hitting philosophy is based on forcing pitchers into the zone with fastballs. Without protection in the lineup, those pitches (four-seamers and sinkers) have become much rarer:

Judge Fastballs in Zone by Month

Month	Percentage
April	24.5%
May	22.8%
June	27.4%
July	21.3%

What happens when pitchers throw a rare fastball in the zone to Judge? He crushes it. He is basically Steven Kwan with elite power:

Most Hits on Fastballs in Zone

	Hits	Slugging
1. Luis Arraez, Padres	80	.368
T-2. Juan Soto, Yankees	70	.816
T-2. Marcell Ozuna, Braves	70	.613
T-2. Steven Kwan, Guardians	70	.562
5. Aaron Judge, Yankees	69	.737

The at bat that turned around his season

On May 5, Judge stepped in to bat in the first inning against Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. His slash line was a woeful .209/.340/.403 over 35 games.

Something needed to change. It started with his feet.

Judge had been hitting since Opening Day with a wide-open stance, with his front foot much farther from the plate than his back foot. On May 5, he pulled his front foot closer to the plate, giving him a more neutral stance. He promptly smacked a 97-mph middle-down fastball from Skubal into the seats in right field for a home run.

Little by little in the two weeks since that swing, Judge pulled his front foot even closer to the plate until, by May 19, the position of his feet was completely neutral.

Here is what the transition looks like. From Opening Day (first image from left, below) through May 4 (second image from left), he hit with an open stance. Then you see the first at bat against Skubal the next day (third image from left). Then two weeks later his feet are equidistant from the plate (first image from right). He has hit from that position ever since.

Screenshot via MLB

Since making that change, Judge has put together one of the greatest 76-game stretches of all time in which he has reached base more than 50% of the time and slugged over .800:

	Games	Home Runs	Average	OBP	Slugging
Judge Before May 5	35	6	.209	.340	.403
Since	76	35	.376	.509	.846

The .600/600 Club

With his home run Saturday, Judge pushed his career slugging percentage to .600. He is only the 10th player in history to slug .600 over his first 946 games. The others: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, Chuck Klein, Todd Helton and Joe DiMaggio.

The list gets even more exclusive when you consider .600 sluggers with 600 walks through 946 games:

.600 SLG and 600 BB Through 946 Career Games

	Slugging	Base on Balls
Babe Ruth	.705	737
Ted Williams	.649	868
Lou Gehrig	.638	607
Aaron Judge	.600	652

Judge and the Mick

It might be baseball blasphemy to compare anybody to Mickey Mantle. Not in this case.

Judge has reached base 236 times in the Yankees’ first 113 games, or two times for every team game. No Yankee had done that through the same number of games since Mantle in 1957 (270 times).

The comparison goes beyond this year. After 946 career games, Judge and the Mick are statistical doppelgangers at the plate.

Through 946 Games

	HR	RBI	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Judge	298	675	652	.286	.403	.600	1.003
Mantle	207	667	662	.316	.427	.575	1.002

Judge and Bob Beamon

Beamon famously set the world and Olympic long jump record in 1968 by such a wide margin (21 ¾ inches) that his name is synonymous with a stunning improvement in a record.

Judge is sitting on 298 home runs, the most through 946 games. The next most home runs through the same number of games is 268 by Ryan Howard, which means Judge has hit 11.2% more home runs to this point than every player in history. Beamon in 1968 jumped 6.6% farther than everyone else.

Most HR Through 946 Games

	Home Runs
1. Aaron Judge	298
2. Ryan Howard	268
3. Ralph Kiner	265

New York has been one of the highest-scoring teams in 2024. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

He hits everything

In the previous two seasons, including his record home run year of 2022, Judge’s power could be somewhat neutralized with off-speed pitches. No more.

Judge vs. Off-Speed Pitches

	Average	Slugging	SLG MLB Rank*
2022-23	.197	.445	87th
2024	.227	.705	2nd

*Min. 1,500 pitches

So, what do you throw him? Pick your poison:

Judge by Pitch Type

	Home Run	Slugging
Four-seam fastball	11	.703
Sinker	7	.794
Sweeper	6	.917
Cutter	4	.900
Changeup	4	.559
Slider	4	.441
Curveball	3	.692
Split-finger	2	1.200

Twice as good, twice over

Judge’s OPS+ in 2022 was 210. This year it is 219. If he keeps this up, he will become only the sixth player to have two or more qualified seasons with an OPS+ of 210 or better, which essentially means more than twice as good as the average hitter in his time.

Most Qualified Seasons with OPS+ of 210 or Greater (Min. 100 games)

	Seasons
1. Babe Ruth	9
T-2. Ted Williams	4
T-2. Barry Bonds	4
T-4. Aaron Judge	2
T-4. Mickey Mantle	2
T-4. Rogers Hornsby	2