The Seven Ways Aaron Judge Is Breaking Baseball

How has the Yankees slugger gotten better and better amid a pitching revolution?

Judge has crushed 31 home runs off 29 different pitchers this season. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

The home runs are coming with such regularity … five on his last 10 flyballs, 25 in his past 49 games, 62 in his past 162 games, 129 in the past 334 games … that the danger is to take Aaron Judge for granted. Please don’t, especially not now, not in a season in which it has never been harder to get a hit in MLB since the mound was lowered in 1969.

Judge is destroying MLB pitching in ways that are not supposed to happen in this high-velocity era with pitch shapes being cooked up in pitching labs. His slash line of .316/.436/.708 includes all career highs.

The New York Yankees slugger has hit 31 home runs off 29 pitchers on nine different pitches at 28 speeds from 79.1 mph to 98.9 mph. (Babe Ruth hit his 60 homers in 1927 against only 33 pitchers.)

Judge is better than ever, which is saying something for the American League single-season home run record holder, former MVP and six-time All-Star. His competition is not his peers or even his former self. His competition is the greatest sluggers of all time.

Over his past 50 games entering New York’s game Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds, Judge posted a 1.430 OPS. Since 1900, only four other hitters were that good over a 50-game stretch: Ruth (five times), Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams and Barry Bonds (four times).

Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Bonds and Judge. That’s it. And Judge is the only righthanded hitter among them.

Judge is 32 years old. Ruth was 32 when he hit 60. Gehrig was 31 and 33 when he maxed out at 49 homers. Williams was 30 when he hit a career-high 43. Bonds was 36 with a pharmaceutical taint when he hit 73. 

Why now? Why is Judge better than he has ever been when the major league batting average is just .242, the fourth lowest ever and the worst since bottoming out in 1968? It’s time to step back and examine the seven ways Judge is breaking baseball and why his season is so mind-bending.

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— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 30, 2024

1. Judge is getting more pitches to hit than ever before.

Wait. What? Why pitch to Judge at all?

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told me he thought about walking Judge last month with the bases loaded and holding a 9-3 lead with four outs to go. He didn’t, and Judge hit a grand slam. He’s that good. No one should challenge Judge in a meaningful spot.

And yet, Judge is seeing more pitches in the strike zone than ever in his career—and smashing them with more damage than ever before.

Judge vs. Pitches in Strike Zone (*denotes career high)

Year	Percentage	Slugging
2024	48.6*	.828*
2023	46.0	.760
2022	45.7	.826
2021	44.4	.694
2020	43.5	.722
2019	44.6	.721
2018	44.3	.634
2017	42.1	.811

2. The Juan Soto Effect is real.

Why is Judge seeing more pitches in the zone? Because with Soto and his league-leading .437 OBP in front of him, Judge is coming to the plate much more often with runners on:

Judge Plate Appearances With Runners On

Situation	Percentage
Bases empty	47.7
With runners	49.5

3. Judge has no protection behind him.

This is downright crazy.

Judge has hit third in the order every game. He is having a historic season despite the worst production the Yankees have ever had in the No. 4 lineup position. Yankees cleanup hitters—Alex Verdugo (40 starts), Giancarlo Stanton (27), Anthony Rizzo (16), J.D. Davis (2) and Gleyber Torres (1)—are hitting .208 with a .263 OBP and .590 OPS. All are the worst levels for the franchise since 1920 and the start of the Live Ball Era.

Moreover, Judge is hitting in front of the fourth worst collection of cleanup hitters of any teamin the 105 seasons of the Live Ball Era:

Worst OPS From Cleanup Spot Since 1920

Rank	Team	Player Most Used	OPS
1	1992 Angels	Hubie Brooks	.545
2	2022 Marlins	Jesus Aguilar	.577
3	1981 Cleveland	Andre Thornton	.587
4	2024 Yankees	Alex Verdugo	.590
5	2009 Royals	Mike Jacobs	.596

What to make of this? The truth is that batting order protection always has been misunderstood. It is more important who bats in front of a hitter than behind him.

4. Judge has never been more disciplined as a hitter.

“He’s incredible,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone says. “And a big part of it is he’s so good at not chasing.”

MLB hitters swing at pitches out of the zone 28% of the time. Judge chases only 19.5% of the time, matching his rate from last season as a career low.

Judge had improved by nearly every hitting metric. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

5. One word of advice to pitchers thinking of throwing a challenge fastball to Judge: don’t.

Judge intimidates pitchers. They typically fall behind in the count against him. He has seen more pitches when he is ahead of the count (501) than every hitter, except the guy hitting in front of him, Soto (546).

That’s a problem for pitchers. But a bigger problem for pitchers is thinking they are going to get back into a count with a fastball to Judge. These numbers are stupid:

Judge vs. Fastballs (Four-seamers and Sinkers)

Pitch Situation	Average	Slugging
All fastballs (FBs)	.356	.725
FBs ahead of count	.373	.804
FBs ahead of count in zone	.419	.930

Pitchers, would you rather walk the guy or test a guy slugging .930 against challenge fastballs?

6. Judge is a matchup nightmare.

A few years ago, managers could feel somewhat comfortable bringing in righthanded relievers to throw sinkers running in on his hands, complemented by sliders breaking away. For instance, Judge was a combined 1-for-30 against Joe Smith, Sam Gaviglio, Miguel Castro and Dillon Tate.

Those days are over. He has covered the hole he had over his hands on the inside corner. Three years ago, Judge slugged .473 against righthanded sinkers. This year he is slugging .744 against them with a career-best .372 average.

Managers, pick your poison:

Judge Platoon Splits

Pitcher	Slugging
vs. RHP	.709
vs. LHP	.703

Captain Crush.

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— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 15, 2024

7. Outfield production in MLB stinks.

“Siri, who is the average MLB outfielder?”

“Siri.”

It’s not a twist on an Abbott and Costello routine. It’s a stunning fact of baseball life these days.

Jose Siri of the Tampa Bay Rays is not a very good offensive player. He can ambush the occasional fastball. But he bats .213 and strikes out 36% of the time. And yet Siri, with a .704 OPS, basically is your average MLB outfielder. The OPS for all outfielders is .705.

Since the mound was lowered in 1969, hitting by outfielders is the worst it’s been. How much more amazing does that make Judge?

The best era for outfield hitting? Smack in the Steroid Era, 1999-2001, when Bonds went off.

2024 MLB Outfielders

		Rank Since 1969
Batting average	.239	Worst
OPS	.705	Worst
On-base percentage	.311	Tied-worst (2022)
Slugging	.394	2nd worst (1976)

To recap, Judge is halfway to 62 homers and riding an all-time great 50-game stretch when hits are the hardest to get since 1969, when he has no protection behind him in the Yankees lineup and when production by his fellow outfielders is at a 55-year low. Don’t take this for granted. His season deserves our amazement.