SI:AM | This Could Be the End of the Astros’ Dynasty

Their ALCS appearance streak is over and it may be a while before they start a new one.

Tucker (30) and the Astros have a critical offseason on their hands. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I can’t say I’m sad that the Astros are on the decline.

In today’s SI:AM:

❌ Houston hushed
❌ Orioles ousted
❌ Braves bounced

Their days are numbered

The Houston Astros’ improbable streak of seven straight ALCS appearances came to an end on Wednesday with their loss to the Detroit Tigers in the AL wild-card series. And with significant potential roster changes on the horizon, it’s fair to wonder whether they’ll start a new streak any time soon.

Houston was the most dominant team in the AL for the past decade, averaging 88.9 wins over the last 10 seasons. The only team in the majors with more wins in that period than the Astros was the Los Angeles Dodgers (94.3 per season). They made the playoffs in nine out of 10 years, winning four pennants and two World Series. It was the most dominant stretch a team has had since the New York Yankees won six pennants and four World Series in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

This year’s team was already far different from the Astros squads fans came to despise at the beginning of their run when they were embroiled in the sign-stealing scandal. Players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Gerrit Cole have moved on to other teams. That means that the stain of the trash can scheme has mostly been lifted, but it also means that the Astros have had to replace a lot of talented players. They’ve found some quality replacements—Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have emerged as elite hitters, and they spent big money in free agency to sign star closer Josh Hader—but they’ve still been a team on the downswing. Their 88 wins this season were their fewest in a full season since 2016.

Now, the Astros are faced with the possibility of losing one of their most important players. Third baseman Alex Bregman will be a free agent this winter. The 30-year-old has spent his entire nine-year career in Houston, but Wednesday’s loss could have been his final game with the franchise.

Thank you Houston

— Alex Bregman (@ABREG_1) October 3, 2024

Bregman has been a critical part of the Astros’ success for his entire tenure with the team, batting in the heart of the lineup and playing above average defense at third. He ranked fourth among Houston regulars this season with a .768 OPS. Losing him would create a serious hole in the lineup, but it could also allow the Astros to invest in other areas. Bregman’s $30.5 million salary was the second highest on the team this season, behind only Justin Verlander’s $43.3 million. (The New York Mets paid $25 million of Verlander’s salary, though, pursuant to the terms of last year’s trade that sent Verlander back to Houston.)

Verlander is another longtime Astro whose days in Houston may be over. He’ll turn 42 in February and is coming off the worst season in his career (a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts). He was left off the team’s roster for the wild-card series. Still, Verlander said after Wednesday’s loss that he doesn’t want to retire.

Whether a team gives him an opportunity to continue pitching after his rough 2024 and whether the Astros will be that team remains to be seen. But Verlander’s struggles highlight Houston’s need to beef up its starting rotation. He was the Justin Verlander of old after being re-acquired last year, posting a 3.31 ERA in 11 starts after the trade and pitching reliably in the playoffs. This year, he was sidelined for more than two months with a neck injury and struggled mightily after returning from the injured list, with an 8.10 ERA in seven starts. Houston acquired Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays to bolster the rotation, but he’ll also be a free agent this winter. The Astros have one highly paid starting pitcher under contract for the foreseeable future: Lance McCullers Jr., who’s owed $17.7 million for each of the next two seasons but hasn’t pitched since 2022 as he recovers from an arm injury.

The biggest decision the Astros will face is whether to extend Tucker, who is currently sent to hit free agency after next season. He missed three months with a shin fracture this season but was still Houston’s best hitter by OPS. He’d surely command a massive contract on the open market, but the Astros could try to secure him with an extension before he reaches free agency—if they still think they’re going to be contenders in the near term.

What makes Houston’s current position particularly difficult is that it can’t bank on a steady stream of quality players coming up from the minors to replace departed or ineffective veterans. Fangraphs ranks the Astros’ farm system as the second worst in the majors, and MLB.com has it dead last. Not only do they not have Springer, Correa and Cole, they don’t have the next version of young stars like those waiting in the wings. No team in recent memory has been hated as widely as the Astros. But soon the prevailing attitude toward them may be pity.

Philadelphia retooled its roster around Embiid in pursuit of an elusive NBA title. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The best of Sports Illustrated

• The Orioles’ loss to the Royals is another mark against Baltimore’s golden generation of young stars, Stephanie Apstein writes.

• Ryan Phillips was in San Diego for the Padres’ clinching win over the Braves and wrote about how the team has kept late owner Peter Seidler on their minds all season.

• Chris Mannix went to Sixers media day, where Joel Embiid and his pursuit of an elusive championship were the focus.

• Andrew Marchand and David Shoemaker were Jimmy Traina’s guests on the latest SI Media podcast.

• Kyle Koster spoke with Karl Ravech about his hectic travel schedule for the MLB playoffs.

• The 2025 Masters will proceed as scheduled despite significant damage in Augusta from Hurricane Helene.

The top five…

… things I saw last night:

5. Aston Villa players’ celebrations after handing Bayern Munich its first Champions League initial stage loss since 2017.
4. Bobby Witt Jr.’s hustle for an RBI infield single.
3. The Royals’ tweet after eliminating the Orioles.
2. Lionel Messi’s free kick goal as Inter Miami clinched the Supporters’ Shield.
1. Garrett Mitchell’s go-ahead home run for the Brewers.