Houston Astros' Urquidy Rediscovering Success with New Pitch Mix

After struggling to start the season, Houston Astros right-hander José Urquidy seems to have found his footing after ditching his cut fastball.

© Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

After a strong year in 2021, when he went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 20 games, José Urquidy struggled out of the gate in 2022.

Through his first 11 starts, the right-handed put up a 5.04 ERA. He allowed four or more runs five times. He made it out of the sixth inning in just three games. 

Urquidy just didn't look like the same pitcher he was in his breakout 2021 season. So in mid June, he decided to make a change. He told reporters he would be removing the cutter from his repertoire and refocusing on his slider. 

Ever since, Urquidy has had much more success. But was his cutter really to blame for all his struggles? Let's take a look.

The Cutter Experiment

Urquidy introduced the cut fastball to his pitch mix this past spring, as a new weapon to deploy against right-handed batters. He has always been better against left-handed batters, so it made sense he was looking for new ways to succeed against righties.

Over the first two months of the season, he used the cutter close to 14% of the time. It largely replaced his slider, which had been his go-to secondary pitch against right-handers in 2021. 

Unfortunately, despite the new weapon in his arsenal, Urquidy was worse than ever against righties. Through his first 11 starts, they hit .321/.345/.557 with nine home runs against him. 

So, after that dismal start, Urquidy decided to drop the cutter. He stopped throwing the pitch entirely, and went back to using his slider much more often. 

Since then, he has a 2.58 ERA in seven starts. Right-handers are hitting .212/.277/.435 against him. That's a huge improvement, and it certainly seems like Urquidy made the right call to give up on his cutter.

But perhaps it's not as simple as that.

Not So Cut and Dry

Houston Astros Starting Pitcher José Urquidy / © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

It seems pretty clear cut:

1. Urquidy starts throwing a cutter against righties.
2. Urquidy is really bad against righties. 
3. Urquidy stops throwing the cutter. 
4. Urquidy has more success against righties. 

Yet as any good researcher knows, correlation does not always equal causation. With a little more digging, it becomes clear that Urquidy's cutter wasn't the problem after all.

Opposing batters hit just .227 against Urquidy's cut fastball, with a .273 slugging percentage and .260 wOBA. By all of those metrics, it has actually been his very best pitch this season. 

In other words, while Urquidy was able to turn his season around right after he ditched his cutter, the pitch was not directly responsible for his early season struggles. 

Was Cutting the Cutter the Right Move?

Urquidy's cutter was not causing his struggles, but that does not mean he was wrong to ditch the pitch.

If dropping his cutter allows Urquidy to focus on improving his slider, it will have been the right move. His three off-speed pitches are all still works in progress, and perhaps he needs more time to focus on those offerings before adding another pitch to his repertoire. 

So far, it seems to be working. Urquidy has been a lot better since he stopped throwing his cutter. Perhaps a five-pitch mix was just too much for the 27-year-old in his first full big league season. 

Moreover, while hitters weren't performing very well against Urquidy's cutter, they were making really strong contact. Per Statcast, opposing batters had a .326 xBA and .518 xSLG against the pitch. Those are alarmingly high numbers.

It may have only been a matter of time before the cutter became a major liability after all, and so Urquidy was probably smart to abandon the pitch when he did.

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