Analyst Names Houston Astros Slugger as Top Free Agent but Questions His Value

The Houston Astros slugger had a tough start to the year, but should be paid well in the offseason.

Aug 28, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Houston Astros infielder Alex Bregman (2) hits a single against the Philadelphia Phillies in the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. / Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros, as a team, struggled during the beginning of the campaign, and so did some of their players. Of those players was Alex Bregman, who hits free agency this offseason.

Over the past few months, the Astros and Bregman have started to play better. They hold a 5.5-game lead in the American League West over the second-place Seattle Mariners.

However, if Bregman's numbers were to finish how they currently are, they'd be lower than what he's posted over much of the past decade.

Still, he's slashing .260/.316/.445 with an OPS+ of 115. If it weren't for the slow start, he could've been looking at a 120 OPS+ season with nearly 30 home runs.

Houston will have a tough decision regarding what they do with him in free agency, but there's a good chance that the beginning of his year lowered his value just a bit. He'll also be 31 going into the 2025 campaign, so age isn't necessarily on his side, either.

Despite some of the worries, R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports named him the No. 3 free agent on the market. Anderson, however, also questioned what his value might be. 

"It'll be interesting to see how teams value Bregman. He's far enough removed from his best slugging years that we assume they'll value him for what he is: a skilled contact and on-base merchant with a good glove and the ability to hit around 20 home runs (we don't think he'll find a ballpark fit as beneficial as Houston's, meaning the 25-plus homer threshold might end up being beyond his reach). Adding to the intrigue is the fact that he's had an odd season, hitting the ball hard more frequently than normal while also walking far less often and having to fight uphill after a poor start."

If the Astros aren't willing to give him what he's looking for, there seems to be a good chance that another ball club would. Considering all of the success he's found throughout his career, he'd be the perfect fit on nearly every contending team that needs a third baseman.

As Houston has shown throughout the past few years, they aren't afraid to let some of their top players walk. It's uncertain if Bregman will be the next case of that, but it's always possible.

Nonetheless, if he puts together a strong October, his value should be right where many expected it to be entering the campaign.