Inside the Astros

Astros Emerging Star Pitcher ‘Could Stave Off Any Regression’ With Velocity Increase

An uptick in velocity could be what helps an emerging Houston Astros pitcher avoid any regression to the mean.

Kenneth Teape

Mar 28, 2025; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) reacts as New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto (22) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the third inning at Daikin Park.
Mar 28, 2025; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) reacts as New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto (22) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the third inning at Daikin Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
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One of the strengths of the Houston Astros early in the 2025 MLB regular season is the top of their starting rotation.

Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are now amongst the best one-two punches in baseball. Valdez, an established ace looking to solidify his resume heading into free agency, has been a consistent performer for years.

It is Brown who is turning into a star before our eyes, which began back in May 2024.

Since that point, Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves, the National League Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award winners, respectively, are the only pitchers with a lower ERA than the Astros star.

With Valdez’s future up in the air, Brown could very well be the team’s ace as soon as Opening Day in 2026, if he doesn’t take over the mantle at some point during the 2025 campaign.

Through two starts this year against the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins, his production has not slipped at all from what he showed over the final 5+ months of the 2024 season.

Brown has pitched 12 innings, allowing only nine hits and three walks, resulting in five runs being scored, four of which were earned, to go along with 15 strikeouts.

With a 141 ERA+ and 2.25 FIP, he is already looking like an ace, even if that title has been bestowed upon Valdez by many people.

What will keep Brown at that level is an uptick in velocity, which he has showcased in the early going thus far.

As shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), his velocity is surging on four-seam fastballs. In 2024, he averaged 96.0 mph; in 2025, he has bumped that number up to 97.8 mph.

“Hunter Brown has already been one of baseball’s best pitchers since he added his sinker midseason last year, and with an extra two ticks, he could stave off any regression that comes from the league seeing this version of his arsenal a second time through,” Sarris wrote.

That kind of production is going to help keep Houston on track as they figure things out with their lineup, both defensively and at the plate producing runs.

It would not be a surprise to see the Astros make a push to sign Brown to an extension, as his price tag is only going to go up with each excellent start and it would provide them with some comfort knowing that Valdez could be moving on this winter.

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Kenneth Teape
KENNETH TEAPE

Kenneth Teape is an alumnus of SUNY Old Westbury and graduated in 2013 with an Honors Degree in Media Communications with a focus on print journalism. During his time at Old Westbury, he worked for the school newspaper and several online publications, such as Knicks Now, the official website of the New York Knicks, and a self-made website with fellow students, Gotham City Sports News. Kenneth has also been a site expert at Empire Writes Back, Musket Fire, and Lake Show Life within the FanSided Network. He was a contributor to HoopsHabit, with work featured on Bleacher Report and Yardbarker. In addition to his work here, he is a reporter for both NBA Analysis Network and NFL Analysis Network, as well as a writer and editor for Packers Coverage. You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @teapester725, or reach him via email at teapester725@gmail.com.

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