Astros Emerging Star Pitcher Must Fix One Thing To Truly Break Out

The Houston Astros lost a lot of talent from their pitching staff this offseason.
Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander and their 2024 trade deadline acquisition, Yusei Kikuchi, both departed in free agency, agreeing to deals with the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels, respectively.
With those two key contributors departing, others are going to have to step up in 2025, including Hunter Brown.
Now in his fourth MLB season, the 26-year-old right took a major step forward last season. After struggling with a 5.09 ERA and 4.37 FIP as a rookie in 2023, he improved to a 3.49 ERA and 3.58 FIP last season, contributing 2.6 WAR and helping the Astros repeat as division champs.
With two full seasons under Brown's belt, Houston's hoping he can make a similar jump this year and make his first All-Star team.
While Brown made impressive strides last year, there's still one thing holding him back from becoming a bona fide ace and Cy Young candidate -- his control.
Coming into 2025, his walk rate was right around the league average of 8.3%. However, he didn’t get off to a great start in that regard in his season debut against the New York Mets, walking three batters in six innings of work during the Astros' 3-1 loss on March 28.
Hunter Brown looked great in his 2025 debut as struck out 7 over 6.0 IP with 2 ER
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 29, 2025
The lack of chases and hard contact put a damper on the day, but his strong stuff helped generate whiffs pic.twitter.com/VtPsnSfxpL
Despite throwing just 60 of his 96 pitches for strikes (63%), he mostly worked around the free passes, yielding three runs (two earned) and striking out seven.
Brown also needs to focus on keeping the ball in the park. While he improved his home run rate from 3.9% in 2023 to 2.5% last year, he surrendered a solo homer to Juan Soto the other day.
Depending on what happens with Framber Valdez, who is a free agent after the season, Brown could emerge as Houston's ace in 2026. If he improves his command a bit, he can be trusted to inherit that role and lead the Astros' pitching staff going forward.