Could Corbin Burnes Deal Prompt Houston Astros To Trade Framber Valdez?

After Corbin Burnes signed a massive deal with a surprise suitor, that could cause the Houston Astros to consider trading Framber Valdez.

Sep 24, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) walks from the bullpen to the dugout before playing against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

It seems like the Houston Astros are content with the roster they have in place after handing star first baseman Christian Walker a three-year, $60 million deal to bolster that position during this championship window.

While there are those out there who doubt the Astros can compete for a World Series title in 2025 because they traded away Kyle Tucker and are losing Alex Bregman in free agency, the organization is confident they are going to contend.

But it should also be pointed out that general manager Dana Brown was also hired in part based on his ability to scout and identify prospect talent.

During this dynastic run by Houston, they have largely destroyed their pipeline by trading away their top minor leaguers to bring in established Major League players who can help them win now.

It was the smart thing to do at the time, but it's hard to have sustained success when the current crop of players age out or leave in free agency, so Brown has been tasked with making sure the farm system gets replenished.

Part of the return package for Tucker did that.

They acquired 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith who has already become their top-ranked prospect and projects to be their third baseman of the future, but the front office still has a lot of work to do to rebuild this pipeline.

One way they could do that is by trading Framber Valdez.

While the Astros have indicated they want to hold onto their ace in 2025 despite him hitting free agency after the season, things are always changing due to what takes place around the baseball world, and based on the deal that Corbin Burnes just inked, that could change things for Brown and the other decision makers.

First, Burnes was the second starter to sign a $200-plus million contract this winter when he agreed to a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, joining Max Fried who previously signed with the New York Yankees.

Those two figures are certainly inline with what Valdez will get on the open market next offseason.

While Burnes has the pedigree of being a past Cy Young winner, something that Valdez doesn't have to his name yet, the lefty does have similar numbers.

Valdez has a career 3.30 ERA and 125 ERA+ across his seven years, 157 outings and 135 starts that is just beaten out by Burnes's 3.19 ERA and 129 ERA+ in his seven years, 199 outings and 138 starts.

Fried has a ridiculous 3.09 ERA and 140 ERA+ over his eight years, 168 outings and 151 starts, but his injury history is something that Valdez has avoided thus far.

Because Houston can expect their ace and his camp to be searching for the $200 million contract like this duo got, that could cause them to change their mind about just keeping him for another year and allowing him to walk.

Especially because it was the Diamondbacks that landed Burnes.

Throughout the winter, it was thought that the big-market teams, like the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays and Yankees, would be the ones to land the right-hander.

But with all of them whiffing, that now creates a real market for an ace-level arm like Valdez.

This could drive up the asking price and net the Astros a massive haul to jumpstart their farm system rebuild.

Houston could still be interested in just holding onto him and getting back draft pick compensation when he signs with another team next offseason, but now that Burnes is off the board with a surprise team, Valdez is the best arm who could be made available.