FanGraphs Projects Interesting 2024 Results For Astros' Starter After Injury Return

It's a big unknown about how one of the Houston Astros' starters returning from injury will look after taking off an extended period of time in his recovery.

The Houston Astros should get a much needed boost to their starting rotation in 2024 that they didn't have last season.

Losing Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia forced them to utilize rookie pitchers in the rotation and made their depth down the stretch difficult to manage.

McCullers, their once elite starting pitcher, has been limited to eight starts since 2022 after missing all of 2023.

That's one of the biggest question marks surrounding the Astros.

How will the right-hander look in his return?

While no one knows for sure as of now, a good sign for Houston is that FanGraphs' ZiPS projections thinks he will return to solid form in 2024 when he takes the mound again.

Dan Szymborski writes in his article, "It feels good about Lance McCullers Jr. returning effectively" after it gave him a value of 1.5.

That is above second year starter J.P. France's projection of 1.2 and just behind Hunter Brown's 1.9. For reference, Framber Valdez was given a figure of 4.1, Justin Verlander a 2.7 and Cristian Javier one of 2.1.

For more information on how these values are calculated, FanGraphs gives this insight.

Of course, these projections can be off in a positive or negative fashion. McCullers could come back and look like the pitcher that has never had an ERA above 4.30 in a single season over his seven year career, or he could look completely different after his surgeries.

But, if he can come back and give the Astros solid innings every five or six days, that would go a long way to ensure that their rotation doesn't run out of gas by the time they're in the playoffs.