Houston Astros Ace Projected for Huge Deal as Free Agency Nears

The Houston Astros face a steep climb to retain their star left-handed pitcher as he prepares to hit free agency after this season.

Matthew Postins | Feb 22, 2025

Feb 14, 2025; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) plays catch during a spring training workout at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have done a solid job of retaining players — as long as the player hasn’t hit free agency.

That’s the rub. The Astros went to great lengths to make sure they could extend Jose Altuve and make him an Astro for life. But, once Alex Bregman hit free agency, he chose a three-year deal worth $120 million over the six-year deal Houston offered, which was more than $160 million.

Houston also traded slugging outfielder Kyle Tucker this offseason for three players they will have control over for some time, sensing that keeping Tucker once he hits free agency this coming offseason might be tough.

So, what about Framber Valdez? The Astros’ left-handed ace is in his final year of team control. He and Houston avoided salary arbitration in January when they agreed to a one-year deal worth $18 million.

Next offseason, like Tucker, he will be a free agent, barring an extension with the Astros. Should he make it to the open market, he’s liable to be one of the most pursued pitchers in free agency.

Recently, CBS Sports ranked the Top 10 free agents for next offseason. Valdez was ranked No. 5 and the third pitcher on the list, behind Dylan Cease and Zac Gallen.

Along with the ranking, CBS offered a projected contract in free agency for each player. It’s clear Valdez won’t come cheap. The projection for the 31-year-old is a six-year deal worth $192 million, with a $32 million average annual value.

That’s just short of the deals that Corbin Burnes ($210 million) and Max Fried ($219 million) signed in free agency this offseason.

That’s a steep price for Houston. It would be more than double the five-year, $95 million deal it signed closer Josh Hader to last offseason.

Valdez may be worth the money to Houston, even though he will be 32 years old next season.

He is coming off a 2024 in which he went 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA. He struck out 169 and walked 55 in 176.1 innings, finishing seventh in AL Cy Young voting and 15th in AL MVP voting.

The left-hander has been a big part of Houston’s success in recent years, as he was in the rotation for both their World Series appearance in 2021 and their World Series title in 2022.

During that 2022 season he made his first All-Star appearance, went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and struck out 194 in an AL-high 201 innings.

He followed that in 2023 with a 12-11 record, a second All-Star Game nod and 200 strikeouts in 198 innings. He also threw his first career no-hitter.

Valdez was selected All-MLB first team in 2022 and second team in 2024.

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