Houston Astros Could Benefit From Alex Bregman Accepting Unlikely Contract

The Houston Astros shouldn't expect their star to take this deal in the 2024 MLB offseason.

Sep 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) hits a home run during the third inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

There are more ways than one for Alex Bregman to return to the Houston Astros in free agency. Of course, there's also an opportunity for the tenured Astros player to leave in the winter. 

Regarding how the team could bring the right-hander slugger back, extending him a qualifying offer is one of two ways. The other would be signing him to a short or long-term contract. 

From Houston's perspective, giving Bregman a qualifying offer makes perfect sense. If Bregman is willing to take a one-year deal, he could reset his market in the following offseason. 

Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com explained the benefits of a team offering a qualifying offer.

"Teams can extend a qualifying offer to select free agents each offseason. Players who accept are signed to a one-year deal for the next season at the designated value (set at $21.05 million for 2025). Those who don't accept remain free agents, and if a new team signs them, their old team receives Draft pick compensation."

It remains unlikely that Bregman would have to take a one-year prove-it deal, which would essentially be what he'd do if he took a qualifying offer.

However, if he declined it and signed with a new team in free agency, at least the Astros would get draft compensation back. For a farm system that's arguably the worst in Major League Baseball, that pick could be valuable.

Harrigan added the following on Bregman, hinting he might get a long-term deal from Houston or a different team. 

"Bregman is set to reach free agency for the first time after nine seasons with the Astros, during which he helped the team win seven American League West titles, three pennants and two World Series championships. Although he has yet to revisit his 2018-19 apex (72 HR, 157 OPS+, 16.8 WAR), the 30-year-old has remained one of MLB’s most productive third basemen in recent years. Bregman got off to a slow start in 2024, but he still finished with 26 homers, a .768 OPS (118 OPS+) and 4.1 WAR (per Baseball-Reference)."

It'll be interesting to see what the front office does with the two-time World Series champion. He's been a big piece of this organization for much of the past decade, so letting him walk for nothing would be disappointing. 

Despite a slower start to the 2024 campaign, the New Mexico native bounced back and showed his value. Even if other teams around the league are worried about his slow start, the nine other years suggest he's arguably the best third baseman in baseball.

That should outweigh any negatives.