Houston Astros Could Lose Ace Next Offseason by Re-Signing Star in Free Agency

The Houston Astros handing out big money this offseason could have consequences.

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros are going to have some major decisions to make over the next couple of off-seasons when it comes to where they choose to spend their financial resources.

Obviously, the big question this winter is going to be what they do with franchise cornerstone superstar free agent third baseman Alex Bregman. There can be arguments made both for keeping Bregman and letting him walk, with the financial commitment being major but the importance of Bregman to the team being just as significant.

As one of the glue pieces to a team that has been on the most successful run in franchise history over the better part of the last decade, Bregman staying in Houston is what everyone wants. If the team does decide to hand a blank check over to the star, it could have unintended consequences.

Next offseason, the Astros will be in a similar conundrum when their ace is set to hit the open market. With the possibility of a Bregman mega deal limiting their ability to spend in the next cycle, Eric Treuden of Climbing Tal's Hill does not expect Framber Valdez to return

"The southpaw went 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 136 ERA+ in 2024, lowering his hit and walk rates from last year while once again topping the 170-inning mark on the season," Treuden wrote. "He's been an absolute workhorse for the Astros, but it's difficult to see how he'll be kept around on the contract he's going to command if/when Bregman gets brought back."

Valdez has spent his entire seven-year career thus far with the Astros, but over the last three seasons he has really turned his game up a notch and stepped into a role that needed to be filled as the team's ace. Valdez is estimated by Spotrac to receive over $18 million in arbitration for 2025, but after that he will be a free agent and having just turned 30 years old, could command a deal that pushes nine figures.

There's a case to be made that if the team has to choose between Valdez and Bregman, Valdez should be the choice. Seeing how the Astros manage this difficult financial hurdle over the next two free agency periods is likely going to define what the roster looks like for the next half-decade and beyond.