Houston Astros Free Agent Could Land ‘Richer Deal Than Expected’ in MLB Free Agency

The Houston Astros starter might have played himself into a bigger contract in free agency.

Feb 15, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown talks with media at George M. Steinbrenner Field. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Whatever the Houston Astros do in free agency, they can't hand out a bad contract. After what they did at the trade deadline when they made a move for Yusei Kikuchi, the front office is under a different microscope than they were just 12 months ago. 

A few areas have to be improved, but what they do with the left-hander could be an important decision this winter. After moving the haul they did for him, it almost feels safe to say that the Astros will at least give him a phone call and see what his price might be. 

However, when analyzing Kikuchi's numbers, there are many reasons to believe that he'll never pitch as well as he did during his 10 starts in Houston.

That doesn't mean he won't go to a different club and find success, as he might've unlocked something during his time with the Astros, but it's tough to say that history is on his side. He's an above-4.00 ERA guy, and teams understand that. 

However, R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports believes that one team might view him as the starter he was during his short stint with the Astros instead of what his career might suggest. 

"The Astros were widely panned at the trade deadline when they surrendered some of their best prospects (a relative description) for Kikuchi. It wasn't a matter of talent so much as a question of execution. Kikuchi has long been appraised as having a phenomenal arsenal; he's just seldom performed like it. Yet he delivered for the Astros, posting a 147 ERA+ and a 5.43 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 10 starts. Kikuchi's improvements stemmed from some startingly obvious tweaks: he reduced his fastball and curve usage and instead spammed his slider more than 37% of the time. Logic dictates teams are unlikely to put greater weight in 10 starts than the preceding 144. Still, it only takes one True Believer for Kikuchi to land a richer than expected deal."

That would be a tough decision from a different club, but all that matters here is that Houston isn't the one to hand him a big deal. If they were to land him on a short-term or low AAV contract, it wouldn't be a bad decision.

However, heading out a somewhat long-term deal or even anything over $20 million AAV could hurt their chances of landing other players, which would become an issue.