Houston Astros Free Agent Lands Contract Team Must Avoid Giving in MLB Offseason

The Houston Astros would need to stay away from the left-hander if he got this type of deal.

Sep 23, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) walks on the field before the game against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have likely already made their decision on left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. According to recent reports, it isn't expected that the Astros will bring him back next season.

That isn't necessarily the wrong decision, but again, when talking about Kikuchi, who they acquired at the deadline, what they moved for him has to be brought up.

It was a brutal trade on Houston's part looking back at it, and many around the industry viewed it as a bad one when it happened. The only way it wouldn't have been was if they had won a World Series. Instead, the Astros were knocked out in the Wild Card Round.

Kikuchi wasn't to blame for their tough postseason showing, however. He threw the baseball at an elite level during his short stint with Houston, perhaps the best of his career.

12 months ago, a short-term deal for low AAV would've been the likeliest outcome on his next contract. Fast-forward to November of 2024, and he might be looking at a sizable deal.

Tim Britton of The Athletic predicted Kikuchi would get $63 million over three years.

"Many questioned the Astros at the trade deadline for giving up a valuable three-prospect package for Kikuchi, who, at the time, had a 4.75 ERA with the Blue Jays. With the Astros, though, Kikuchi threw fewer curveballs and more sliders, and he delivered a 2.70 ERA over the season’s final two months. His free agent value might depend on whether teams believe that late-season change had unlocked a higher level. Prior to the end of last season, Kikuchi had been more steady than sensational. He was an All-Star in 2021 but finished that season with a slightly below-average 93 ERA+, and he has an underwhelming 91 ERA+ for his career. The past two seasons, though, Kikuchi has an above-average 105 ERA+ while making 32 starts each year."

If he were to get that type of money, the Astros wouldn't have a no reason to even get involved.

There's a scenario where they could be interested in bringing him back if the price is right, but that's way higher than most predictions and something the team doesn't need to spend.

There will be other options out there for similar prices who have had much better careers and are younger, so unless they like the continuity with already having him playing for the squad, a reunion wouldn't make much sense at that price.

It'll be interesting to see the number he actually ends up with, but somewhere around $50 million seems probable.