Inside the Astros

Houston Astros Overcome Massive Odds To Win AL West Title

The Houston Astros' latest division title was their most challenging one yet.

Tyler Maher

Sep 21, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena and center fielder Jake Meyers celebrate the win.
Sep 21, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena and center fielder Jake Meyers celebrate the win. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
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It wasn't easy, but the Houston Astros are AL West champs once again.

The Astros clinched their fourth straight division title with a 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night. Like they have all season, Houston overcame an early deficit, socking three home runs and rallying from a 3-1 hole to defeat their division rival.

The Astros have now won the AL West in seven of the last eight years, the lone exception being when they finished second to the Oakland Athletics in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

Houston is the only MLB team to win their division in each of the last four years. They're also the first team to win four straight AL West titles since the 1971-1975 A's.

While many faces (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, etc.) have stayed the same during that time, many are new as well. The Astros had to rely on an abundance of rookies and relatively unknown players this year to help compensate for all of their injuries and aging stars.

Despite their impressive track record of success, Houston finishing first was anything but a foregone conclusion a few months ago.

In fact, it looked extremely unlikely.

The Astros faced trouble from the start.

Not only did they have a rookie manager in Joe Espada, but they also began the season with virtually their entire starting rotation on the injured list. Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers, Cristian Javier, J.P. France and Jose Urquidy were all unavailable a few months in and contributed little (if anything) during this campaign.

Not surprisingly, Houston stumbled out of the gate.

The Astros were swept in a four-game series against the New York Yankees at home to start the season and quickly plummeted to last place. Houston was a whopping 12 games below .500 at several points, including 7-19 and 12-24.

According to FanGraphs' MLB playoff odds, the Astros had just a 10.8% chance to win the division and a 29.3% chance to make the playoffs on June 18, nearly halfway through the season.

Houston started to turn things around in mid-May, but issues continued to mount.

Former MVP Jose Abreu was so helpless at the plate that he was demoted to Triple-A, then eventually released. All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker got hurt and missed roughly half the year, while new closer Josh Hader endured one of the worst seasons of his career. Verlander pitched sporadically and often ineffectively in what may be his final season before retirement.

And yet, the resilient Astros kept finding ways to win games.

The lineup continued to churn out runs without Tucker and Abreu, leading the American League in hits and batting average. Ronel Blanco emerged as an All-Star-caliber starter, while rookie Spencer Arrighetti found his footing after a rocky start.

The rotation also got a huge boost at the MLB Trade Deadline from Yusei Kikuchi.

While Houston's trade with the Toronto Blue Jays was heavily criticized at the time, Kikuchi has been a revelation, pitching the Astros to victory in all nine of his starts.

Meanwhile, the rest of the AL West failed to capitalize on the Astros' poor start.

The Mariners led the division for much of the first half but faded in the second, undone by their anemic offense. The Texas Rangers collapsed after winning the World Series last year, the A's went out with a whimper in their final season in Oakland and the Los Angeles Angels were one of the worst teams in baseball after Shohei Ohtani left for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Mike Trout got hurt.

Without a legitimate challenger to their throne, Houston was able to overcome their sluggish start to reclaim their customary position atop the standings. They returned to form and played terrific baseball for four-and-a-half months, surging back into contention with the best record in baseball after May 8.

Now, the Astros have their sights set on another World Series trophy, which would be their third in the last eight seasons.

With their vast playoff experience, potent lineup and strong pitching staff, they once again look like a team to fear in October.

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Tyler Maher
TYLER MAHER

Tyler grew up in Massachusetts and is a huge Boston sports fan, especially the Red Sox. He went to Tufts University and played club baseball for the Jumbos. Since graduating, he has worked for MLB.com, The Game Day, FanDuel and Forbes. When he's not writing about baseball, he enjoys running, traveling, and playing fetch with his golden retriever.

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