Houston Astros Pitcher Faces Overvaluation in Free Agency

A team might be overpaying for what a former Houston Astros pitcher will provide in 2025.

Sep 28, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros entered free agency with a few of their key players hitting the open market. 

Coming into the offseason, the Astros knew they would likely be losing some of their players, and in the early parts of the winter, they have already seen starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi sign a lucrative deal with the Los Angeles Angels. 

In addition to Kikuchi being gone from last year's their starting rotation, Justin Verlander is also on the open market. 

Despite a legendary career, father time could be catching up with the right-hander.

In 2024, he totaled a 5-6 record and 5.48 ERA.

It was the worst showing of his career, as he attributed it to coming back too soon from a neck injury. 

At 42 years old, Verlander is still hoping to win and pitch at a high level before retiring. Despite the down season, he will likely have a couple of contending teams willing to take a chance on him with the hope that 2024 was just simply injury-related struggles. 

Recently, Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report spoke about players who would likely be overpaid this winter and highlighted why that could be the case for the future Hall of Famer. 

“But Verlander will turn 42 in February, and while it would be cool to see him find another life and make a run at 300 career victories—he is sitting at 262 wins right now—history tells us it's much more likely that he's finally hitting a wall for good. Even if it's only for a year, there's a very real chance that Verlander is given $10-$15 million for 2025 and is unable to be healthy enough to pitch consistently.”

With injuries holding him down last season and being over 40 years old, it is hard to imagine that Verlander is going to pitch an entire year in 2025. 

If he falls into the $10-15 million range, he certainly could end up being overpaid if he makes less than 20 starts, however, a contending team might be willing to hold him back at the beginning of the season to keep him fresh for the second half and stretch run. 

It is very hard to predict how the right-hander will perform in 2025.

Teams are certainly going to be willing to take a chance on Verlander, but they might overpay if his production turns out to be like last year.