Houston Astros Questioned for ‘Top Heavy Hitting Class’ in 2024 MLB Draft

Baseball America thinks the Astros have a lot riding on the selection of catcher Walker Janek

May 26, 2023; Mesa, AZ, USA; Sam Houston Bearkats' Walker Janek (3) celebrates his 3-run home run against the GCU Lobos during their WAC Tournament game at Hohokam Stadium. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Houston Astros’ 2024 MLB Draft class is filled with promising talent, yet some analysts believe the team may have missed an opportunity to strengthen their future offense by not being more aggressive in selecting hitters. The Astros’ draft strategy leaned heavily on pitching and defensive skills rather than high-ceiling offensive players, raising questions about whether they’ve done enough to future-proof their lineup.

Baseball America, when writing their annual "draft report card" article that oddly doesn't actually have grades like a report card typically would, questioned the focus of General Manager Dana Brown to focus most of his efforts on one premiere hitter. The writeup acknowledged the financial disparity in the position player group, with only one offensive performer signing for more than $500,000.

The Astros’ standout offensive prospect from the class, Walker Janek, is undoubtedly a strong addition. Janek, a catcher from Sam Houston State, displayed an impressive .364/.476/.709 slash line in college, suggesting a solid hit tool and promising power. However, his power projects as average, rather than elite, leaving his offensive impact somewhat limited. While Janek inked a $3.1 million deal as the Astros’ highest-paid hitter, the remaining offensive selections in the class lack the same high-upside hitting potential. This reliance on Janek to be the class's cornerstone hitter may place too much pressure on a single player to carry the offensive output of this draft class.

Joseph Sullivan, the club’s seventh-round selection, boasts speed and defensive prowess, with a track record of stealing bases in college. However, his offensive profile remains modest, with concerns about whether he can sustain a high-level on-base percentage against advanced pitching. In his pro debut, he posted a .250 batting average with an OPS of .740 in Low-A, showing glimpses of patience at the plate but still far from being a power threat. While Sullivan’s speed and athleticism could make him a versatile outfield option, he lacks the impact bat that might accelerate the Astros’ offensive development pipeline.

Meanwhile, the Astros dedicated multiple early selections to pitching, including third-rounder Ryan Forcucci and fourth-rounder Parker Smith. Both bring impressive arms and strike-throwing consistency, but this emphasis on pitching over power-hitting hitters might leave Houston with a farm system short on potential impact bats in the near future. With the Astros’ major league lineup aging and free agency not always a reliable method to fill hitting gaps, developing offensive talent in-house remains essential.

This draft class underscores Houston’s commitment to developing defensive-minded players and bolstering their pitching depth. While these moves could strengthen their future bullpen and rotation, the lack of a high-caliber hitting prospect outside of Janek means Houston’s future lineup may lack balance. In the ever-competitive AL West, where power and depth play pivotal roles, the Astros may find that prioritizing defense over impact bats in the 2024 draft could limit their offensive ceiling down the line.