Houston Astros Remain Factor in American League After Turbulent Offseason

On the heels of losing stars like Alex Bregman and Kyler Tucker this offseason, the Houston Astros can still be a factor in the American League.

Ryan Reynolds | Feb 14, 2025

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are on the best run in franchise history. Over the last decade the Astros have won two World Series, their first in franchise history. Houston's had nine winning seasons over that span, with the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign (29-31) serving as the lone exception.

The Astros have endured some dark days of their own making during this stretch. But overall, winning baseball has become the norm in Houston.

It's rare to see a team in this position, in any professional sport, lose as many big name players as the Astros have this offseason.

Cornerstone third baseman Alex Bregman is shipping up to the Boston Red Sox. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and relief pitcher Ryan Pressly are now Chicago Cubs.

That's two big bats removed from the heart of the order and a pitcher that recorded 114 saves over his seven seasons with the Astros.

Then there is the loss of future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who will make the San Francisco Giants his fourth team in his storied career. Verlander posted a 5.48 ERA in just 17 starts for the Astros in 2024. His best days are behind him, where he's more of a clubhouse presence than an on-field difference maker at this stage. Still, he's a marque name with a ton of big game experience under his belt.

Verlander isn't the only starting pitcher Houston lost, as Yusei Kikichi is now with the Los Angeles Angels. Kikichi was acquired via midseason trade last season, where he went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and .93 WHIP over10 games for Houston.

On the surface, this offseason looks like an absolute disaster for the Astros. In fairness, it wouldn't be shocking if that's how things turned out, as Bregman and Tucker combined for an 8.8 bWAR on their own in 2024. If you were to merge their peak seasons, Bregman and Tucker would then have a total of 14.6 bWAR. That's a lot of lost stability and premium upside in the middle of the order.

No one wants to lose star players, but Houston's done a pretty good job of mitigating their losses this offseason. That starts with acquiring third baseman Isaac Paredes in the Tucker trade. Paredes will turn 26 years old later this week and he's combined for a 6.9 bWAR over the last two years. Paredes is not Bregman, but the Astros new third baseman has already been productive and he's just short of being five years younger.

The Astros also upgraded first base by bringing in Christian Walker, who has hit 95 homes runs over the last three years for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Houston's direct replacement for Tucker comes via in-house right fielder Chas McCormick, who posted a 3.6 bWAR in 2023.

The Astros' hope is that Paredes, Walker and McCormick can collectively come close to matching Bregman, Tucker and last year's primary first baseman Jon Singleton. That is not an impossible outcome for Houston.

Bryan Abreu, who had a sub 2.00 ERA in both 2022 and 2023, will directly replace Pressly. Abreu has a combined 5.5 bWAR over the last three years compared to Pressly's 1.3 bWAR.

The void left in Houston's rotation is likely filled by 27-year-old right hander Hayden Wesneski, who was acquired as part of the Tucker trade. Wesneski is a question mark, but he throws in the mid 90s with a five-pitch arsenal. Wesneski's sweeper had a 43.3% whiff rate in 2024. He's unproven, but he's young enough where he could conceivably exceed expectations if he wins a rotation spot.

The New York Yankees are the clear top dog in the American League, but the Astros are still in that next tier despite their roster turnover. Perhaps more encouraging is Houston will enter the year with a younger starting pitcher, set up man and third baseman. The Astros kept themselves in play as at least a fringe contender this offseason, while adding a few pieces that might age better than those they lost.

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