Is a Houston Astros and Ohtani Bargain Unaffordable?

Shohei Ohtani could be available either via trade or free agency, or both, in the next few months. But can the Houston Astros realistically pursue him?

Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Aside from the obvious benefit at the box office, the Houston Astros would probably like nothing more than to see Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani find a new home outside of the American League West next season.

I mean, six or seven games against an Ohtani-led team is better than 14, right?

Well, there may be good news on that front. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal — who also works for Fox as their in-game reporter — had an opinion on Ohtani’s potential for re-signing with the Angels when he spoke with the Flippin’ Bats podcast.

“I don’t think there’s a chance they’re (Angels) going to sign him,” Rosenthal said.

Ohtani figures to become the richest free-agent in baseball history when he hits the market in the offseason. That seems likely, even if the Angels determine they must deal Ohtani at the deadline in order to get some value in return for him, if they’re certain he won’t re-sign.

But perhaps there’s a larger question here. Would the Astros be interested in taking a swing at Ohtani, either as a short-term rental or as a long-term part of their franchise? 

After all, their starting rotation is beat up and Minute Maid Park is one of those parks where Ohtani’s swing might find plenty of home runs.

That’s where things get tricky.

In terms of a trade, the Astros have a minor-league system that is ranked No. 27 in MLB right now. There isn’t a lot of MLB-ready talent at the top of the system. The Astros have catcher Korey Lee, who is their No. 5 prospect. But the Angels are covered there with their coveted prospect, Logan O’Hoppe.

The Astros’ other two Top-10 prospects at Triple-A, infielder Pedro León and outfielder Justin Dirden, play positions where the Angels have coverage.

Most of the Astros’ quality pitching depth organizationally is at Double-A Corpus Christi. The Astros could pair some of that with MLB talent, but the Angels will likely seek a significant haul and that would include MLB-ready starting pitching, an area where the Astros are razor-thin at the moment.

What about free agency? 

The Astros are sitting on a payroll of $191 million for 2023. The payroll falls to $148 million for 2024, nearly $100 million under the expected luxury tax threshold of $237 million.

So there’s room. But, is there really? Next year’s payroll is committed to nine players. It also doesn’t include the significant number of contributors that are arbitration eligible next year. 

That list includes pitchers Framber Valdez, José Urquidy and Luis Garcia. Plus there are position players like Kyle Tucker, Mauricio Dubon and Chas McCormick.

Then there’s the Jeremy Peña question. The shortstop isn’t arbitration-eligible, but it makes sense for the Astros to try and lock him into a team-friendly deal now instead of waiting for arbitration.

Finally, the Astros’ TV situation is such that it’s not clear exactly how much revenue the team can expect from its TV deals once it is free of AT&T SportsNet later this year. That could impact what they’re able to pay.

Ohtani would cost a team like the Astros a raft of prospects or at least $55 million per year in free agency. It’s a bargain the Astros may not have the capital to afford.  

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