Houston Astros Should Avoid Predicted Nine-Figure Former MVP Winner in Winter

The latest contract prediction for the Houston Astros star might be a bit too high.

Feb 15, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown talks with media at George M. Steinbrenner Field. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

If the Houston Astros want to put the best product on the field in 2025, it might require them to fix some of their existing relationship issues.

Cody Bellinger has consistently been linked to the team and fits that description. While the fit makes sense due to his ability to play the outfield and first base, his history suggests he won't want to play for the Astros.

The left-handed slugger might not hit the free agency market, as he has an opt-out in his deal. If he opts into his contract, Houston wouldn't have to worry about fixing that relationship.

If there's one benefit to him potentially joining the ball club, it's the fact that Scott Boras is his agent. Boras always wants the most money for his clients, so if there aren't better offers out there, he'll figure out how to make the relationship work.

Bellinger is a hitter they should pursue at the right price. If he could be had for $20 to $23 million AAV, which seems unlikely, signing him would be a wise decision.

However, in Jim Bowden of The Athletic's latest prediction, the former MVP Award winner came in at $112 million for four years.

"Bellinger has won an MVP, a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Slugger awards, a Gold Glove Award and has been an All-Star twice in his eight-year career. However, his slash line over the past three seasons has been a roller coaster ride, which makes it difficult for teams to assess which version they would be getting in the coming years. Bellinger’s ability to play above-average defense at all three outfield positions and first base improves his market value."

$28 million AAV for Bellinger would be questionable. From his perspective, that's likely around the number he'll seek.

It isn't necessarily that Bellinger isn't worth that money, but his game isn't what it used to be.

The Astros know better than anyone what the former star used to do, but he's far from his MVP playing days.

That doesn't mean he wouldn't bring value to Houston, but for nearly $30 million per, it's unlikely he'd play up to that value.

Unless there was a scenario where the Astros could add an opt-out into his deal, which doesn't seem likely considering if he hits the open market, he wants a long-term deal, they should avoid him.

If so, there will be other options out there to pursue.