Houston Astros Star Free Agent Has Concerning Statistic That Should Scare Them

The Houston Astros may want to consider letting their superstar walk based on this concerning statistic.

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros head into the free agency period coming off their earliest postseason exit since they last didn't qualify in 2016.

Throughout the better part of the last decade, they have dominated the American League, winning four pennants and making seven consecutive ALCS appearances.

At the center of it all has been the one manning the hot corner in Alex Bregman.

The superstar has just come to the end of his five-year, $100 million deal he signed in 2019 and is expected to receive significantly more than that on his next contract.

The Astros would love to retain his services, but by the sounds of it likely will not overpay.

Bregman has every right to seek every dollar he can get, but if the number gets too massive, it would be hard to blame Houston for passing.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com revealed a statistic about the slugger which should even further make the Astros hesitant to hand him a huge long-term deal.

"Bregman had an abrupt drop-off in his walk rate this year, coming in at 6.9% after posting a walk rate of at least 11% in each of the six seasons from 2018-23," Feinsand wrote. "A reliable on-base guy throughout his career (.373 OBP from 2016-23), Bregman’s .315 OBP in 2024 was his lowest since his 49-game debut season in 2016. Also of note: Bregman’s 23.6% chase rate was his highest since 2017, while his 44.9% swing rate was his highest since 2016."

On top of the concerning drop in walk rate and on-base percentage, Bregman put up the lowest OPS of his career at .768, a number that has been steadily trending down over the years.

Undoubtedly, he is still one of the best third baseman in all of baseball, since defensively, he has improved as well by winning his first career Gold Glove in 2024.

But the reality of giving players long-term contracts is teams are supposed to be paying them for what they will do in the future, not what they have done in the past.

It's not that Bregman's production will immediately going to fall off if they paid, him but it has to be a question of value if they're considering giving him the likely six to seven year deal he desires.

Letting their franchise cornerstone walk might make for a couple of painful seasons if he rakes elsewhere, but the numbers indicate down the line, the Astros would feel they made the right choice.