Houston Astros Star Might Have Smaller Market Due to One Intriguing Stat

The Houston Astros slugger will have to be careful in negotiations during MLB free agency.

Oct 2, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third base Alex Bregman (2) runs after hitting a single against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning of game two of the Wildcard round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros are expected to have conversations with superstar third baseman Alex Bregman this winter, and the chances of him returning seem higher than they did a few months ago.

A reunion for the Astros and the right-handed slugger makes a ton of sense for both sides, as the team doesn't have a replacement, and he might feel comfortable returning to an organization he spent all of his Big League career with. 

That might not mean much for both sides, as things happen, but from the outside looking in, Bregman's return could work in his favor. Houston wants to win a World Series moving forward, and having him gives them the best opportunity to do so. 

However, from his side, it might be even more important that he returns to the Astros than for the team to have him back. Not that he'd be a bad addition, but his stats suggest he might not play as well in other parks. 

R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports highlighted a few interesting numbers about the New Mexico native. 

"Bregman has been one of the most productive third basemen in the sport for much of his career. He's compiled the sixth-most WAR at the position since 2020, putting him ahead of Rafael Devers and behind only the who's who of this era's third basemen... For instance, Statcast's calculations suggest he would have at least 30 fewer career home runs had he hit the same array of batted balls in one of 17 other MLB fields. You can't hold that against Bregman -- you golf the course you're on -- but it does suggest his power might play down elsewhere. There's also the matter of his walk rate, which cratered to a career-low 6.9% last season as he grew more aggressive. Bregman's bat-to-ball and defensive skills remain good enough for him to provide value; there's just a little more reason to say "hm" here than his name value indicates."

Despite what Anderson says, and most of it makes plenty of sense, Bregman might not worry about stuff like that. If a team is willing to pay him the money he's looking for and Houston isn't, he likely won't care about the numbers he puts up elsewhere.

That isn't to say that he doesn't want to play well, but the name of the game is to get paid. 

This is their job, after all, and if a club is willing to pay him more than the Astros are, it'd be tough to blame him for leaving.